1. 10-22-12 01:20 PM #1
    NunyaBidness
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    Nunya's Completely Unrelated to MMA betting Value Bus.

    Lots of value in the political markets open right now if you're a believer in market efficiency.

    at 5dimes:
    Will Obama win 3rd debate -190 (fair price -200)
    Democratic President + Democratic Senate + Republican house NO +100 (fair price -166)
    Democratic President + Republican Senate + Republican House Yes +1950 (fair price +669)
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  2. 10-22-12 01:24 PM #2
    NunyaBidness
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    Also:
    Obama to win Virgina +140 5dimes +130 Bodog
    Obama to win Pennsylvania -360 Sportsbook
    Romney to win Wisconsin Bodog +275
    Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)
    Romney to win New Hampshire +150 Bodog, +140 Sportsbook, +135 5dimes


    No guarantee any of these win or BTCL, but are all beating the wider market right now.
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  3. 10-22-12 01:26 PM #3
    PunisherIND
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    how are you coming up with the "fair price"?
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  4. 10-22-12 01:28 PM #4
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Also:
    Obama to win Virgina +140 5Dimes +130 Bodog
    Obama to win Pennsylvania -360 Sportsbook
    Romney to win Wisconsin bodog +275
    Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)
    Romney to win New Hampshire +150 Bodog, +140 Sportsbook, +135 5dimes


    No guarantee any of these win or BTCL, but are all beating the wider market right now.

    many thanks nunya

    wisco is arbable as well
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  5. 10-22-12 01:31 PM #5
    PunisherIND
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    florida

    5dimes barack wins +280
    bovada romney wins -215
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  6. 10-22-12 01:34 PM #6
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    how are you coming up with the "fair price"?
    Prediction markets.
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  7. 10-22-12 01:35 PM #7
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    florida

    5dimes barack wins +280
    bovada romney wins -215
    Interestingly enough, both sides should have value there. (besides the arb I mean)
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  8. 10-22-12 01:48 PM #8
    PunisherIND
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    obama to win colorado +120 on 5d

    i think theres some value there
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  9. 10-22-12 01:51 PM #9
    Grabaka
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    Shit! Bodog started redirecting me to their Chinese site so i took my money out. Now i miss it badly. I need me an awfully slow book.
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  10. 10-22-12 01:51 PM #10
    NunyaBidness
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    I'm on Colorado/Obama at -130, wish I wasn't now. If you believe 538 Colorado is value to -112, if you believe the market you need +125ish.
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  11. 10-22-12 01:52 PM #11
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grabaka View Post
    Shit! Bodog started redirecting me to their Chinese site so i took my money out. Now i miss it badly. I need me an awfully slow book.
    Are you in China? I thought you were in Mexico?
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  12. 10-22-12 01:54 PM #12
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    florida

    5dimes barack wins +280
    bovada romney wins -215
    I can get ROmney at -200 on WH. How long till the result though? Dont wanna have funds tied up for months!
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  13. 10-22-12 01:55 PM #13
    NunyaBidness
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    Nov 6, homey.
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  14. 10-22-12 01:56 PM #14
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I'm on Colorado/Obama at -130, wish I wasn't now. If you believe 538 Colorado is value to -112, if you believe the market you need +125ish.
    i've only been using 538.

    where do you get this market data?
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  15. 10-22-12 01:57 PM #15
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    many thanks nunya

    wisco is arbable as well
    Republican to win Wisconsin is +300 to +350 range on Euro books, while Democrat -210 on Sportbet...Quite a big difference...Sportingbet have Democrat at -600!
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  16. 10-22-12 01:57 PM #16
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    I can get ROmney at -200 on WH. How long till the result though? Dont wanna have funds tied up for months!
    yea, wont be tied up too long. make yourself some free money!
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  17. 10-22-12 01:57 PM #17
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Nov 6, homey.
    Cool, for all of them? (or at least around tht date)?
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  18. 10-22-12 01:58 PM #18
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    yea, wont be tied up too long. make yourself some free money!
    yea might as well...tho will be squids as Eurobooks will have it limited to £25 or sumin!
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  19. 10-22-12 01:59 PM #19
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Republican to win Wisconsin is +300 to +350 range on Euro books, while Democrat -210 on Sportbet...Quite a big difference...Sportingbet have Democrat at -600!
    wow. easy money.
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  20. 10-22-12 01:59 PM #20
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Cool, for all of them? (or at least around tht date)?
    all of them
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  21. 10-22-12 02:02 PM #21
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    i've only been using 538.

    where do you get this market data?
    Was really tempted to LMGTFY, but decided to be nice.

    http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
    http://www.ideosphere.com/

    538 is good for analysis, but he doesn't release how his model works, and his numbers always seem to be skewed to the left.
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  22. 10-22-12 02:08 PM #22
    NunyaBidness
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    And for the lowest of rollers, Not Obama is at +260 at the SBR books. Fair line is +150
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  23. 10-22-12 02:14 PM #23
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Was really tempted to LMGTFY, but decided to be nice.

    http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
    http://www.ideosphere.com/

    538 is good for analysis, but he doesn't release how his model works, and his numbers always seem to be skewed to the left.
    lol thanks
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  24. 10-22-12 02:25 PM #24
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    wow. easy money.
    Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these
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  25. 10-22-12 02:26 PM #25
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    And for the lowest of rollers, Not Obama is at +260 at the SBR books. Fair line is +150
    Should know by now there are no low rollers in the MMA forum brah! All big timerz pickin winnerz for sheazy
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    NunyaBidness gave Vaughany 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  26. 10-22-12 02:28 PM #26
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these
    I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.
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  27. 10-22-12 02:37 PM #27
    Grabaka
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Are you in China? I thought you were in Mexico?
    Yes i am in Mexico. But last week suddenly bodog redireted me to the chinese site (it has english version but i found it shady) So I contact them and they say its fine that will be my new Bodog...like wth? So i asked them to send my bankroll which they already did. Maybe i go back in one day but i need to research about it.
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  28. 10-22-12 02:42 PM #28
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Is ur limit on sportbet/5dimes $100 for these
    yea
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  29. 10-22-12 02:43 PM #29
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.
    Oh right, and I thought I had it bad at $100
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  30. 10-22-12 02:44 PM #30
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    I'm at $50 for these, same as my reduced juice limits.
    braggart
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  31. 10-22-12 02:57 PM #31
    PunisherIND
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    nfl props

    5dimes - stafford throws an INT @ -160
    bovada - stafford does not throw an INT @ +200
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    NunyaBidness gave PunisherIND 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  32. 10-22-12 03:12 PM #32
    Grabaka
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    Republican in New Hampshire is @ +175 on Betfair.
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  33. 10-22-12 03:26 PM #33
    Grabaka
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    yea might as well...tho will be squids as Eurobooks will have it limited to £25 or sumin!
    £13.5 brah....just checked
    Throw some moneys at betfair...since its trade youll never get limited
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  34. 10-22-12 03:43 PM #34
    PunisherIND
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    i think we should keep this thread going for non-mma related wagers. however, no gabes allowed. guy will flood the thread with 20 pages of joe tsonga parlays.
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  35. 10-22-12 03:44 PM #35
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    i think we should keep this thread going for non-mma related wagers. however, no gabes allowed. guy will flood the thread with 20 pages of joe tsonga parlays.
    You're right, I should've locked it to pros only, keep the riff raff out.
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