1. #71
    Vaughany
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    Very nice

  2. #72
    PunisherIND
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    nunya, thanks again for putting me on to that intrade site. never heard of it before, and then last night one of the analysts on cnn mentioned the site (i think his point was that the debate did not have any effect on the market, according to intrade).

    anyway, some more lines of note on 5d

    Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -280 (fair value -395)
    Republicans control the Senate +425 (fair value +320)
    Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)

  3. #73
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)
    spoke too soon. +125 now.

  4. #74
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    anyway, some more lines of note on 5d

    Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -280 (fair value -395)
    Republicans control the Senate +425 (fair value +320)
    Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)
    lol limited to $50 on the gary johnson line and $25 on the colorado amendment.

    nunya must be at $25 and $10. lol.

  5. #75
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    nunya, thanks again for putting me on to that intrade site. never heard of it before, and then last night one of the analysts on cnn mentioned the site (i think his point was that the debate did not have any effect on the market, according to intrade).

    anyway, some more lines of note on 5d

    Gary Johnson popular vote over 0.49999% -280 (fair value -395)
    Republicans control the Senate +425 (fair value +320)
    Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)
    Hmmm, I've never checked, but did Intrade leave the market open during the debate? Every sportsbook seems to take the lines down right before. Either way, Romney's actually gone up on intrade since then.

    Laying off the Gary Johnson line myself. I thought about it for a while, and I would think Intrade bettors would be above the norm in libertarian tendancies and might be pushing that line out of whack. Either way there is very little activity in that market.

    Love the Colorado 64 bet though.

  6. #76
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Hmmm, I've never checked, but did Intrade leave the market open during the debate? Every sportsbook seems to take the lines down right before. Either way, Romney's actually gone up on intrade since then.

    Laying off the Gary Johnson line myself. I thought about it for a while, and I would think Intrade bettors would be above the norm in libertarian tendancies and might be pushing that line out of whack. Either way there is very little activity in that market.

    Love the Colorado 64 bet though.
    i wasnt checking, but the guy on cnn said there were some spikes on intrade during the debates, but the closing number was the same as the opening number.

  7. #77
    v1y
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    I can not beleive i played obama at -240 a month ago. god i'm a penetrating square.

  8. #78
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by v1y View Post
    I can not beleive i played obama at -240 a month ago. god i'm a penetrating square.
    lol, i share these sentiments.

    but i am partly consoled by the fact that i got romney to win FL at -120.

  9. #79
    NunyaBidness
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    I've got some down at worse prices than that. After the 47% thing it looked like it was Lockbama.

  10. #80
    PunisherIND
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    money is coming back on obama a little bit. moved from -190 to -220 on 5d this afternoon.

  11. #81
    omalley21
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  12. #82
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  13. #83
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    any value in Demi Lovato group to win X Factor at +400

  14. #84
    Vaughany
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  15. #85
    Vaughany
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    Who do y'all think wins the WSOP Final table this wknd? Im thinkin Greg Merson takes it...has the story after bouncing back from drug addiction!

  16. #86
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Who do y'all think wins the WSOP Final table this wknd? Im thinkin Greg Merson takes it...has the story after bouncing back from drug addiction!
    No opinion here, haven't watched any coverage this year and don't think I've ever played with or even heard of any of these guys.

    I have a bet on the winner to be under 27 years old at +125, but that was before the ME started, and I have no idea who I'm even rooting for now! Hell, it could be a loss already or a lock!

  17. #87
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    No opinion here, haven't watched any coverage this year and don't think I've ever played with or even heard of any of these guys.

    I have a bet on the winner to be under 27 years old at +125, but that was before the ME started, and I have no idea who I'm even rooting for now! Hell, it could be a loss already or a lock!
    ha I think it's split about 50/50 maybe one or two more under 27! Jesse Sylvia who was chip leader is 26, pretty sure Salaburu, Russell Thomas, Merson, and Balsiger are all under 27...Balsiger is 21 I think. I've been watchin the highlights of final 30 or so during my lunch breaks at work...been some entertaining stuff

  18. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    anyway, some more lines of note on 5d
    Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass -110 (fair value -120)
    Interesting this line is moving the opposite direction of the intrade line, up to +140 now, and its on the cover page for 5dimes with a big marijuana leaf. Strange.

  19. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    ha I think it's split about 50/50 maybe one or two more under 27! Jesse Sylvia who was chip leader is 26, pretty sure Salaburu, Russell Thomas, Merson, and Balsiger are all under 27...Balsiger is 21 I think. I've been watchin the highlights of final 30 or so during my lunch breaks at work...been some entertaining stuff
    Sounds like I'm a pretty smart capper, then! I stopped watching TV poker years ago, the players were so terrible, watching them get crowned as the champion was frustrating.

  20. #90
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    At this point Obama at intrade is arbable against every online site. Going to be wiring funds today.

  21. #91
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Interesting this line is moving the opposite direction of the intrade line, up to +140 now, and its on the cover page for 5dimes with a big marijuana leaf. Strange.
    im glad you brought this up. i noticed this yesterday when the line moved to +130, but intrade was going the other direction. i made a mental note to ask you about it, but then i smoked some weed and forgot.

    not sure what to make of it, but i did add some more at +130.

  22. #92
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    At this point Obama at intrade is arbable against every online site. Going to be wiring funds today.
    market manipulation?? i was reading about this yesterday. seems there was some funny business going on.

  23. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    market manipulation?? i was reading about this yesterday. seems there was some funny business going on.
    link?

    Only thing I can figure is it's a different set of guys making wagers in different spots. Perhaps the online guys tend to be more liberal and pot-heads. I trust the Intrade numbers to be closer to the truth simply due to the volume involved.

    I can't really think of a way you could manipulate these markets as they're backed by real dollars on both sides. If the price was moved artificially, it would get pounded back to parity.

    Perhaps pinny has decided they want exposure on Romney and the other books are simply falling in line. Pinny's limits on this are 20k, so they should be getting pounded.

    Have to say, I'm completely uncomfortable in my Obama position.

  24. #94
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    link?

    Only thing I can figure is it's a different set of guys making wagers in different spots. Perhaps the online guys tend to be more liberal and pot-heads. I trust the Intrade numbers to be closer to the truth simply due to the volume involved.

    I can't really think of a way you could manipulate these markets as they're backed by real dollars on both sides. If the price was moved artificially, it would get pounded back to parity.

    Perhaps pinny has decided they want exposure on Romney and the other books are simply falling in line. Pinny's limits on this are 20k, so they should be getting pounded.

    Have to say, I'm completely uncomfortable in my Obama position.
    this is basically what the articles say -- that there might have been short term manipulation, but once the market gets wind that the movement wasnt based on any real news, they will take advantage of the artifical movement.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...neys-fortunes/

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...ntrade/264000/

  25. #95
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    Interesting articles, thanks. If anything, it indicates that intrade numbers are more accurate that one would assume.

  26. #96
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunisherIND View Post
    Lol No worries. I'm not one of these guys who will give you shit if it doesn't hit. But I played it tiny anyway.
    1-0 up after 20mins

  27. #97
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    1-0 up after 20mins
    Now it's tied! You owe me $100!!!!!

  28. #98
    Vaughany
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    Actually they are losing

  29. #99
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Actually they are losing

    Now you owe me $200!!!!!

  30. #100
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    1-0 up after 20mins
    lol vaughany, next time keep you trap shut until the game is over!

  31. #101
    Vaughany
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    Apologies boys! Jinxed the play big time..this is an absolute shocker

  32. #102
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Now you owe me $200!!!!!
    lol

  33. #103
    Vaughany
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    Worst thing is my four other plays are all gonna hit but still gonna be in the red because of this one

  34. #104
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Interesting this line is moving the opposite direction of the intrade line, up to +140 now, and its on the cover page for 5dimes with a big marijuana leaf. Strange.
    intrade has this at 50-50 now. still value on NOT getting passed at +140. however, in light of yesterday's movement, the line might actually get better.

  35. #105
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Worst thing is my four other plays are all gonna hit but still gonna be in the red because of this one
    Quit your crying, I lost ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS. That shit doesn't grow on trees. I don't even no what this game they were playing is. I trusted you, I believed in you, I counted on you. How could you let this happen to my TWO THOUSAND NICKELS!?!!?!?!??

    I gave you a 2% edge on the Debate prop for $50 limits and this is how you repay me?

    I hope you think about me and my TEN-THOUSAND PENNIES when you go to bed tonight. I know I will be.

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