1. #36
    byronbb
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    BTCL is a myth BTCL is a myth
    Simple back testing proves you wrong.

  2. #37
    Br0nxer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Br0nxer View Post
    It's a start. doesnt guarantee anything though

    A certain poster here bets about 30-40 college FB and NFL games a week as soon as the lines come out. sends me the games mid-week so I know he isnt BSing about this

    beats the closer on 95% of them

    some weeks he wins. some weeks he loses

    guy is getting fukkin buried today

    beat the closer in every fukkin game anywhere between a 1/2 pt and 3 points

    will post screenshot of all plays after tomorrows NFL games

    BTCL dont mean jack shit

  3. #38
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Br0nxer View Post
    guy is getting fukkin buried today

    beat the closer in every fukkin game

    will post screenshot of all plays after tomorrows NFL games

    BTCL dont mean jack shit
    It does mean something, theoretically if he could pick winners as well as someone who gets worse lines, he would win more frequently, but if he only picks loser, then his line doesn't matter. BTCL is a 2-3% swing max, so if you beat it but only pick winners 40% of the time, you are still SOL.

  4. #39
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by byronbb View Post
    Simple back testing proves you wrong.
    actually it doesnt

  5. #40
    Br0nxer
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    It does mean something, theoretically if he could pick winners as well as someone who gets worse lines, he would win more frequently, but if he only picks loser, then his line doesn't matter. BTCL is a 2-3% swing max, so if you beat it but only pick winners 40% of the time, you are still SOL.

    these are fukkin sharps

    betting 2-5k a game-40 FB games a weekend

    they have a clue

    BTCL doesnt guarantee anything is the point\

    people think it fukkin guarantees something

  6. #41
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by Br0nxer View Post
    these are fukkin sharps

    betting 2-5k a game-40 FB games a weekend

    they have a clue

    BTCL doesnt guarantee anything is the point\

    people think it fukkin guarantees something
    Well said.

  7. #42
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    It does mean something, theoretically if he could pick winners as well as someone who gets worse lines, he would win more frequently, but if he only picks loser, then his line doesn't matter. BTCL is a 2-3% swing max, so if you beat it but only pick winners 40% of the time, you are still SOL.
    if yopu can pick winners then you dont have to worry about the line, THATS the point. The line comes into play as you said 2-3% of the time. So if you know what youre doing youre going to avoid a lot of those times anayway because theyre going to be around key numbers, so that leaves 1-1.5% of the time a game happens to land on or around a number that moved, again with minimal amount of line shopping or ability to get a line that isnt the absolute worst you once again reduce the amount the line matters.

    sure to some mush who couldnt pick his ass with both hands it will maybe make them a 50-52% capper because theyre going to be 48%-50% anyway because they dont have a clue or are following people.

    I have put up close to 100 opinions on the forum of those one was a game where the line mattered, and I am not even avoiding those suspect lines, I am putting up a ton of those 3 point games in the NFL, some that opened a pk and move to 2.5 and 3. How many have landed close? How about zero.

    The better you are at recognizing winners the less the line matters. I think people dont understand that because they simply cant pick winners in the first place.

  8. #43
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by wantitall4moi View Post
    if yopu can pick winners then you dont have to worry about the line, THATS the point. The line comes into play as you said 2-3% of the time. So if you know what youre doing youre going to avoid a lot of those times anayway because theyre going to be around key numbers, so that leaves 1-1.5% of the time a game happens to land on or around a number that moved, again with minimal amount of line shopping or ability to get a line that isnt the absolute worst you once again reduce the amount the line matters.

    sure to some mush who couldnt pick his ass with both hands it will maybe make them a 50-52% capper because theyre going to be 48%-50% anyway because they dont have a clue or are following people.

    I have put up close to 100 opinions on the forum of those one was a game where the line mattered, and I am not even avoiding those suspect lines, I am putting up a ton of those 3 point games in the NFL, some that opened a pk and move to 2.5 and 3. How many have landed close? How about zero.

    The better you are at recognizing winners the less the line matters. I think people dont understand that because they simply cant pick winners in the first place.
    I agree with 98% of your post. The only thing is that 2% is a decent amount of money. I deposited $600 and have wagered (risk amount or to win amount, whichever is lower) over $80,000, 2% of that is $1,600, and I would love to have that extra money to my name. I am still up big, but could be bigger if I had gotten the best lines.

  9. #44
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    I agree with 98% of your post. The only thing is that 2% is a decent amount of money. I deposited $600 and have wagered (risk amount or to win amount, whichever is lower) over $80,000, 2% of that is $1,600, and I would love to have that extra money to my name. I am still up big, but could be bigger if I had gotten the best lines.
    yeah getting the BEST line is obviously going to be a difference it has to be its like comparing how long it takes you to walk in a straight line compared to walking at different angles, but just like walking in a straight line you cant always get the best line, NO ONE does.


    1600 is basically the price of doing business, in the grand scheme if youre playing at offshore books and posting up the fees will be more than 1600 bucks if youre able to bet any sort of money and collect.


    Like I said people can track their personal plays in several ways, versus the WORST, that gives them a general idea of how their opinion rates, if they can win against the worst number then they can win against any number. Then obviously what number you got, which you already know, and then against the numbers (that were better than what they got) that were available for an extended period of time, and then against the absolute best number you could find regardless.

    If you cant win against any of those find another hobby.

  10. #45
    pokernut9999
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    you idiots do know there are 2 sides to getting the best line and they usually split each game.

    Case in point last week Northwestern +12 Michigan -7.5

  11. #46
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokernut9999 View Post
    you idiots do know there are 2 sides to getting the best line and they usually split each game.

    Case in point last week Northwestern +12 Michigan -7.5
    Ya cause most lines swing 4.5 points dumbfukk. Books get middled on 1 percent of games MAX, probably no where near that actually.

  12. #47
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Ya cause most lines swing 4.5 points dumbfukk. Books get middled on 1 percent of games MAX, probably no where near that actually.
    i posted em, they can look them up if they want, I put up the sides and middles for the NFL, NBA, NCAA football teams and totals awhile ago.

    NCAA hoops is harder because limits on totals are so stupid you cant garner any meaningful data from it, but the moves used to make middling a certain move on the blind profitable, but not anymore, and not at any sort of limits orth bothering with.

  13. #48
    RudyRuetigger
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    wanti might be the new best poster on this site

  14. #49
    pokernut9999
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    wanti might be the new best poster on this site


    He could care less if he gets a bad number , yea great poster

  15. #50
    Naz18
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    This thread really brings out the clueless fuks...

  16. #51
    Naz18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Br0nxer View Post
    guy is getting fukkin buried today

    beat the closer in every fukkin game anywhere between a 1/2 pt and 3 points

    will post screenshot of all plays after tomorrows NFL games

    BTCL dont mean jack shit
    Of course it's not a guarantee but in the long run you will win it's that simple....

  17. #52
    pokernut9999
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Ya cause most lines swing 4.5 points dumbfukk. Books get middled on 1 percent of games MAX, probably no where near that actually.

    You miss the entire point of the thread , would you rather have a team getting 12 on Wednesday or wait till Saturday and get 7.5

    Not talking about middling books

  18. #53
    convick
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    Tulsa -3 earlier this week, closed at -1/-1.5. Horrible beat for anyone that was on them at the crappy number.

  19. #54
    k13
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    You can get the "best line" every time betting LIVE. Will you win long-term?

    Whatever "best line" you got, you can always get a better one LIVE, if you don't then you don't play that game.
    Anyone have any insight at the results of this?

    I'll give example later.

  20. #55
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokernut9999 View Post
    You miss the entire point of the thread , would you rather have a team getting 12 on Wednesday or wait till Saturday and get 7.5

    Not talking about middling books
    It would appear that the entire point of this thread is that you allegedly beat the line on some supposed plays you made and needed to tell someone you were feeling pretty damn good about it.

    There would be as much to be gained from reading a thread about scratching your fukkin nutsack when it itches. That feels pretty good too.

    I am quite happy for you that you beat the line on your alleged plays. Your need to self fellate on this forum is better satisfied elsewhere.

  21. #56
    pokernut9999
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    It would appear that the entire point of this thread is that you allegedly beat the line on some supposed plays you made and needed to tell someone you were feeling pretty damn good about it.

    There would be as much to be gained from reading a thread about scratching your fukkin nutsack when it itches. That feels pretty good too.

    I am quite happy for you that you beat the line on your alleged plays. Your need to self fellate on this forum is better satisfied elsewhere.
    Judging from the stupidity in this thread doubt any of you guys would gain any insight from anything.

    Just my 2 cents .


    Funny how all the bashers are the same ones that post losing picks one after another

  22. #57
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokernut9999 View Post
    Judging from the stupidity in this thread doubt any of you guys would gain any insight from anything.

    Just my 2 cents .


    Funny how all the bashers are the same ones that post losing picks one after another
    If the thread had been titled " a simple discussion on beating the closing line" perhaps it would hold a bit a value. Wanty and others have made some good points here. Some of your discourse would have been of value in dialectic argument on the topic.

    Beating the closing line has nothing to offer in the way of value until the games are decided. You did not cite one real example of you beating anything but your bony fukkin ribs, impressed with your alleged ability to beat a line. Started the thread with your own dick down your throat and ended by calling the rest of the community who do not buy into your theorem "lazy fukkers".

    My $.02 says you are a two bit attention whore who wouldn't admit there may exist a counter to your own unproven point and that you are probably as incapable of posting winning plays on a regular basis as those you ridicule.

  23. #58
    wantitall4moi
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    Quote Originally Posted by convick View Post
    Tulsa -3 earlier this week, closed at -1/-1.5. Horrible beat for anyone that was on them at the crappy number.
    that was just luck, nothing to do with the number, Tulsa totally dominated that game but had 2 turnovers how they dont cover any number is a frigging mystery. Complete and utter domination in every facet of the game but the score.

  24. #59
    Pete0
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    wanti might be the new best poster on this site

    i strongly agree !, his posts are informative

    no surprise he gets so much bashing from the clueless fks ( who win year in and year out gambling )

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