1. 07-16-12 03:30 AM #176
    raydog
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Hey Ray, how many of those guys do this...



    Words of a winner.
    have to watch those guys...they are dangerous
    Last edited by raydog; 07-16-12 at 03:38 AM. Reason: oversharing is bad...
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  2. 07-16-12 03:59 AM #177
    PickWinnerAllDay
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    Quote Originally Posted by raydog View Post
    pickwinnersallday, we werent really discussing line shopping as much as nysg was basically saying he didnt care what the line was, he was betting the team that he capped to cover a line, no matter how bad that line was...and then said if he got a good # or beat the closer, that was even better, but completely irrelevant ... this is how the majority of people bet and the flaw in this is seen in the books bottom line every year...their really is no valid arguement

    i admit, i have run across a few guys who dont line shop much and dont worry much with statistical edges, closing #s, etc... but are in the black for their lifetime and honestly seem to have a knack at winning in certain sports... it can happen, they study the shit out of teams and simply win more than they lose, its just rare...but nobody is getting rich doing it and the bad streaks are much worse than the good and the odds are heavily stacked against them winning long term, but some still keep on winning a little, year after year... nysg, maybe you will be one of those guys... 3 years isnt much time to show, but if you think you are ahead for your first 3 years, then i wish you the same luck until you quit...

    since you need some sort of proof, i believe mathy probably has a small database showing the winning % of players beating closing #s at some large books since they started calculating things of that nature... maybe he will share it in the morning
    Fair enough. I think I know more about pitchers and pitching than most people. I feel like I have an edge betting on unders because of that. Maybe it is my imagination. I know I have won consistently with MLB totals but it's only been 4 years so maybe it has been a fluke. I do have some horrible months as well, usually around June. Happened last year too. Really gotta go west to focus on unders when it's 100 on the entire east coast.
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  3. 07-16-12 04:39 AM #178
    ZetaPsi808
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    NYS, i call it like i see it and they are right

    they meaning MF, raydog and Nicky

    beating the closing line is important, although i do not think you can rely on that as your only strategy

    picker since you bet so much per game i recommend getting more than one out

    access to different books will save you a lot of money in juice in the long run
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  4. 07-16-12 04:52 AM #179
    ZetaPsi808
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    i used to think the same way NYS does until i read nicky santoro's posts
    i was the biggest square, i used to cap baseball games using pitcher's ERA and teams' won/loss records

    i learned about terms like: beating the closing line, pinny steam, no vig line, etc

    one thing i still do not know about is the value of a half point in NBA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAB and a run in MLB

    how accurate is this? http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/

    i would think a half run would cost more in juice in a baseball total that is 6 compared to a total that is 12

    i always second guess myself whether to take a +5 -105 or +5.5 -110

    i bet MF or mathy has a tool for this
    Last edited by ZetaPsi808; 07-16-12 at 04:56 AM.
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  5. 07-16-12 07:34 PM #180
    GunShard
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    Everyone new to gambling should view this thread.
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  6. 07-17-12 06:42 PM #181
    NYSportsGuy210
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    i used to think the same way NYS does until i read nicky santoro's posts
    i was the biggest square, i used to cap baseball games using pitcher's ERA and teams' won/loss records

    i learned about terms like: beating the closing line, pinny steam, no vig line, etc

    one thing i still do not know about is the value of a half point in NBA, NFL, NCAAB, NCAAB and a run in MLB

    how accurate is this? http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/

    i would think a half run would cost more in juice in a baseball total that is 6 compared to a total that is 12

    i always second guess myself whether to take a +5 -105 or +5.5 -110

    i bet MF or mathy has a tool for this


    Pitcher's ERA? lol no wonder you failed using the real method.
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  7. 07-17-12 06:59 PM #182
    SBR_John
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    15,120 vid plays. Nice.
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  8. 07-17-12 07:07 PM #183
    acl123
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    at beating the closing number
    all you math guys put down the ******* calculators and pick winners.
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  9. 07-17-12 09:43 PM #184
    jjgold
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    Gunner good thread

    Many guys put holes in Justin's methods though

    He is more of a bonus guy
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  10. 07-25-12 07:45 PM #185
    GunShard
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    Yea, not all of his videos are reasonable. But the house edge on the parlays made perfect sense. The smaller the parlay the better the chance to win.
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  11. 08-01-12 06:49 PM #186
    therushishere
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    Solid thread
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  12. 08-01-12 08:27 PM #187
    ProfaneReality
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    I like his videos. I find it funny that there's about 15 cuts in a 3 minute video though.
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  13. 08-01-12 10:52 PM #188
    therushishere
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    I was referring more to the conversation but videos have some useful stuff in them too.
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  14. 08-01-12 10:55 PM #189
    hawley
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    Silly Persian
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  15. 08-01-12 10:59 PM #190
    therushishere
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    So it doesn't really matter if you play the worst lines over the long term because variance doesn't really matter and if you can pick winners you pick winners right?
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  16. 08-02-12 12:52 AM #191
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYSportsGuy210 View Post
    $10,000 dick wad.

    get back to us when you add a couple more zeros
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  17. 08-02-12 04:57 AM #192
    BEANTOWNJIM
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    15,000 VIEWS YAH WE HAVE A LOT OF POSTERS WHO HAVE A SLEEP DISORDER AND JUSTIN7 HELPS SLEEP DEPRIVED POSTERS GET SOME REST.I KNOW WHEN I AM TIRED I WILL POP ON A JUSTIN 7 VIDEO AND WITHING 30 SECONDS I AM SOUND ASLEEP

    WHO NEEDS SLEEPING PILLS WHEN WE HAVE JUSTIN 7
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  18. 08-02-12 05:01 AM #193
    BEANTOWNJIM
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    HEY SBR JOHN WHY DONT YOU SEND JUSTIN 7 TO A GYM NOBODY TAKES CHUBBY GUYS SERIOUSLY IF HE WAS IN SHAPE AND DRESSED A LITTLE BETTER HE MIGHT HAVE A CAREER IN VIDEOS.

    I KNOW BLACK SHIRTS ARE SLIMMING BUT THEY DONT SEEM TO BE WORKING FOR JUSTIN 7 GET THE KID A NEW WARDROBE
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  19. 08-02-12 07:22 AM #194
    ttrace35
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    Quote Originally Posted by BEANTOWNJIM View Post
    HEY SBR JOHN WHY DONT YOU SEND JUSTIN 7 TO A GYM NOBODY TAKES CHUBBY GUYS SERIOUSLY IF HE WAS IN SHAPE AND DRESSED A LITTLE BETTER HE MIGHT HAVE A CAREER IN VIDEOS.

    I KNOW BLACK SHIRTS ARE SLIMMING BUT THEY DONT SEEM TO BE WORKING FOR JUSTIN 7 GET THE KID A NEW WARDROBE
    Gay post
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  20. 08-23-12 03:50 AM #195
    GunShard
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    Listen to ESPN podcast with Justin7.

    http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8290068
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  21. 08-23-12 04:59 AM #196
    jjgold
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    Compared to Mathy Justin is a square
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  22. 09-13-12 01:21 AM #197
    GunShard
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    Justin7 and Lakerboy are value bettors. They bet sportsbooks like the stock market. I don't believe that works.
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  23. 09-13-12 09:54 AM #198
    MasterP10
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    Quote Originally Posted by BEANTOWNJIM View Post
    YES I HIGHLY RECOMEND THESE VIDEOS IF YOU HAVE INSOMNIA I CANT TAKE WATCHING 2 MINUTES OF JUSTIN HE HAS THAT WHINING VOICE THAT GETS ON MY NERVES.HE REMINDS ME OF BEN STEIN MAN I HATE BEN STEINS VOICE CERTAIN GUYS GET ON MY NERVES AND I GUESS JUSTIN 7 IS ONE OF THEM

    ASK YOURSELF DOES JUSTIN 7 LOOK LIKE HE IS A SUCCESSFULL GUY I GUESS HIS SYSTEM ISNT WORKING FOR HIM
    You probally look rich but are broke as....
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  24. 09-13-12 09:56 AM #199
    MasterP10
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    Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
    Justin7 and Lakerboy are value bettors. They bet sportsbooks like the stock market. I don't believe that works.
    So how do you bet sports?
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