[ravkes]

I have been sports betting since I was 18, I'm 22 now. I have lost about $6200. I admit that a large number of my losses have been due to stupid bets, loss chasing, and too many big bets. This was largely due to the fact that I was an action junkie who used gambling as a way to pass time if I was bored. However, a good amount (about half) is just losing consistently over time even if I make the right bet - hitting around a 50% win rate. I'd be losing at least 4% of my bankroll just because of the vig, and I'll keep losing 4% because of the fact that the lines are set up for you to win around 50% of the time if you make the right plays every time which obv. isn't enough to gain a profit. It seems as if the lines are almost always on point and it generally always goes either way. Some people may say bet on the ML - but assuming that even if you hit your favorite bets at -200 a pop, all you need is to lose that one bet on the expected winner at -350 or whatever it is to come back down to where you were.

So really, if the lines are set for you to win 50% of the time (assuming good discipline and money management) and the ML bets generally get you back to about 50% as well over time. What are we all hoping for? Is the system is set for you to fail, if so then what's the point? Are we all really that dumb to put money up and that desperate for happiness in the form of a win?

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this. Do you have a mathematical system that values teams and players for each game that you utilize to gain a 5-10% ROI? Because it seems to be using logic for bets only to find an edge, and no math, will only gain you about break-even which will make you lose consistently still due to the vig. Obviously this isn't as bad as just being plain stupid like I was when I lost the initial 3 grand, but it still isn't worth the time.

Thanks!!

[k13]

No.

[peeiempee]

Lines are not set at 50%. Lines are set to GET 50% money on both sides. Key is to be on the winning side. If you are having trouble capping winners you should reevaluate the way you cap. Or tail posters on the sites or follow touts. There are many system plays that can yield a profit too.

[milwaukee mike]

if you bet a million games without bonus money or rebates, you will be down almost exactly the juice.

if you bet a million games taking bonus money (as long as it exceeds the juice) you will be ahead.

if you bet a smaller sample size and pick good spots you can be profitable, but i am one of the few here or anywhere else that does this.

[ravkes]

I should just quit lol

[darkhat]

In another hour or two you'll have about 20 people on the forum all saying they make about 50k a year betting sports.

[FourLengthsClear]

Lines are not set at 50%. Lines are set to GET 50% money on both sides. Key is to be on the winning side. If you are having trouble capping winners you should reevaluate the way you cap. Or tail posters on the sites or follow touts. There are many system plays that can yield a profit too.

Biggest myth there is. Books have no respect for 'public' money.

They will quite happily take 60-70% of total bets on one side if it means even action (or better yet, no action) from winning players.

[ravkes]

In another hour or two you'll have about 20 people on the forum all saying they make about 50k a year betting sports.

Yeah it's funny though, I posed a similar question 2 years ago when I was only down 2 grand lol.. surprisingly there was only 1 guy who bragged that he was up.. most people were honest and said they were down. Do you know of any documentaries or books on successful sports gamblers?

[Big Bear]

Abso-fukkin-lutely kid! It's called picking winners.

Your question was is it possible? Yes ofcourse it is.


Is it common? absolutely not. But it IS possible. My advice is try to stay ahead of the curve. If you wait for public knowledge it's too late. You have to be one step ahead of espn and everybody else. Look for trends, body language in the players, the little things. Anticipate things, look at the schedule for teams you are interested in weeks ahead of time and form an opinion prior to those games and then go back and watch game by game and see how you feel when those games you looked at come around. It takes discipline, a decent size bankroll, a bit of luck, and set of brass balls.

You have to take risk, but make them calculated. Don't bet b/c you want action on the game just b/c it's on espn tonight. Bet b/c it's one of those games that comes along ever so often where you have absolutely no doubt in your mind it is a winner. Any seasoned gambler will tell you those games DO exist but they are few and far between and you have to watch sports avidly.

It's all easier said than done. But it is possible. I have not yet figured it out but being a professional gambler is a dream of mine.

My last piece of advice and this is probably the best advice I can give is this ..

Learn from your mistakes. In most things in life the only way you can truely learn is to make mistakes.

The difference between people who are succesful and the ones who are not, is the people who are succesful don't repeat the same mistakes over and over.

[aggieshawn]

How to win at gambling.
Step 1 Identify your weaknesses or problems. Which you have done.
Step 2 Don't do any on the listed problems in Step 1
Step 3 Re-elavalute your situation and adjust once again.

[lunchbawks]

Forget about your 6200 first off, if you want to see your account balance grow! You have to shake it off, buy sportsinsights, and start winning again.

[aggieshawn]

Practice with betpoints. This is the best thing for new cappers to do. It feels like you are betting big, but not really.

[Chimneyfish]

Look for trends, body language in the players, the little things.

[FourLengthsClear]

Yeah it's funny though, I posed a similar question 2 years ago when I was only down 2 grand lol.. surprisingly there was only 1 guy who bragged that he was up.. most people were honest and said they were down. Do you know of any documentaries or books on successful sports gamblers?

If you want to explore a math based approach then:

"Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong.

Justin7's book "Conquering Risk" has some good pointers (although a lot of follow up will be required) in terms of setting up statistical models. It also helps greatly if you have some programming ability.

[TR88]

no

[jjgold]

How win at gambling...bankroll of about 20k to start

Move to Canada or England
Set up your bank accounts
Set up Moneybookers
Set up your ************

Play at pinnacle, BetFair, matchbook and then 3-5 solid American books like Heritage, Rebatewager, Legends, 5 Dimes, Carib..get a few Aussie Books, A few UK Books.............

Get a reliable line service like Don Best to see where money is moving

Bet both sides to games and scalp money lines in all sports

Maybe some middles on point spread sports if you like

Maybe some bonuses

GAME OVER

[Big Bear]

I want to share one more piece of strategy advice. And BTW everyone has their own style and betting preference.

Some people swear by -110 single play bets. Some people love teasers, some people love picking underdogs and fadiing the public, some people love parlays but here is my new personal favorite

the open ended ML parlay. It is available at 5 dimes. For example if you want to you could do a 10 team parlay today and only pick say 2 teams today. Leaving 8 open spots.

what i like to do is pick sure winners ML usually and I also like teams playing at home. I stick to teams that I have seen play and teams that I feel like I can trust.

I feel much more confident in a -300 playing at home in College basketball than I do in the NBA. The reason is college kids seem to have a harder time playing on the road.

And in the professional leagues , there is not as big of a seperation of talent level. Anybody can beat anybody in MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA etc..

[Dutchie]

no no no

[High3rEl3m3nt]

My best advice is to stay away from football. Concentrate on NHL and MLB...maybe NBA..stay away from NCAA BB too.

[nick86]

Here's some really good advice most degenerate sports gamblers are too stupid to take.

your starting bet should NEVER be more than 2% of your bankroll. If you can do that you will greatly increase your chances of gaining a profit in the long term.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Here's some really good advice most degenerate sports gamblers are too stupid to take.

your starting bet should NEVER be more than 2% of your bankroll. If you can do that you will greatly increase your chances of gaining a profit in the long term.

So you'll profit even though it has nothing to do with picking winners? I agree with keeping your bets nominal to your bankroll, but without being able to pick winners, it doesn't matter. IMO, hardest sports to win in are Football and college basketball...I think quite a few guys would minimize their damage by avoiding these.

[nick86]

So you'll profit even though it has nothing to do with picking winners? I agree with keeping your bets nominal to your bankroll, but without being able to pick winners, it doesn't matter. IMO, hardest sports to win in are Football and college basketball...I think quite a few guys would minimize their damage by avoiding these.

Nope I never said that. Picking winners is obviously very important but not more important than money management.

[JohnGalt2341]

Do you know of any documentaries or books on successful sports gamblers?

This 6 minute documentary about internet gambling is the best and most realistic one that I've seen. It just might change your life. I know it changed mine.

[dj_destroyer]

Set a bankroll that you are willing to lose completely in hopes of doubling it. Stick to the sports that you know. Always get more information than everyone else. Don't bet more than three games a day. Finally, simply make 1% wagers for 'action' bets, 2% wagers for your good looks, and 4% for your absolute killer bets and you will never go broke, EVER.

[ebbearsfb1]

The best advice your gonna get on here is to just quit now and forget you ever started... gambling is nothing more than a wild ******* guess. Anyone that tells you other wise either a) is full of shyt or b) knows the game is fixed ...

[ebbearsfb1]

I couldn't tell you how many bets I've lost by a point or half a point... big favorites losing at home... flip a coin you'll do just as good

[Thor4140]

Lines are not set at 50%. Lines are set to GET 50% money on both sides. Key is to be on the winning side. If you are having trouble capping winners you should reevaluate the way you cap. Or tail posters on the sites or follow touts. There are many system plays that can yield a profit too.

This is the dumbest fallacy in gambling. anyone who thinks this should quit right now.

[ravkes]

The best advice your gonna get on here is to just quit now and forget you ever started... gambling is nothing more than a wild ******* guess. Anyone that tells you other wise either a) is full of shyt or b) knows the game is fixed ...

lol I agree, I'll just quit, this doesn't make any sense to me anymore - and you shouldn't continue doing something that doesn't make sense to you.

[ravkes]

This is the dumbest fallacy in gambling. anyone who thinks this should quit right now.

I agree

[ravkes]

I couldn't tell you how many bets I've lost by a point or half a point... big favorites losing at home... flip a coin you'll do just as good

lol yeah I know man I feel you

[ravkes]

How win at gambling...bankroll of about 20k to start

Move to Canada or England
Set up your bank accounts
Set up Moneybookers
Set up your ************

Play at pinnacle, BetFair, matchbook and then 3-5 solid American books like Heritage, Rebatewager, Legends, 5 Dimes, Carib..get a few Aussie Books, A few UK Books.............

Get a reliable line service like Don Best to see where money is moving

Bet both sides to games and scalp money lines in all sports

Maybe some middles on point spread sports if you like

Maybe some bonuses

GAME OVER

lol what, are you a winning player jjgold?

[jjgold]

Galt good stuff man


Man some great info in this thread!

[Thor4140]

I agree

Bud i have been doing this for over 30 years and if i had to do it all over again i wouldn't waste one second doing this. Prolly wouldn't waste one second in life watching sports either.

[ravkes]

If you want to explore a math based approach then:

"Sharp Sports Betting" by Stanford Wong.

Justin7's book "Conquering Risk" has some good pointers (although a lot of follow up will be required) in terms of setting up statistical models. It also helps greatly if you have some programming ability.

Well I suck in statistics and probability and have no programming ability lol so I was probably kidding myself when I asked for a mathematical system ha. I'll check those books out though and maybe read them for fun though.

[ravkes]

Bud i have been doing this for over 30 years and if i had to do it all over again i wouldn't waste one second doing this. Prolly wouldn't waste one second in life watching sports either.

I used to have that POV. But now the games just make me stressed and not excited because I know that I don't have an advantage over the books so I'm not as optimistic - sports also get boring after you're watching like a game a day to pass the time to me. Are you a winning player? lol