[pattymayo]

yes. Bet your life savings on one game, hope it wins, then never bet again. That's the only way

[ebbearsfb1]

Might just make a parlay thread 10 team parlay once I get to play 8 or 9 hedge... I ******* did a 25 team parlay got to play 20 and this dumb n I g g for barcelona misses a easy lay up to give me the win...unexplainable

[john230]

Practice with betpoints. This is the best thing for new cappers to do. It feels like you are betting big, but not really.

Most people lose in the long run. House has all the advantages. Use those betpoints and have some fun. That's my plan to cut down on some of the losses I have incurred over the last couple of years. Still plan to fund overseas for Triple Crown races and Breeders Cup but I am done trying to beat football and BBall over the long run. That's where the SBR Sportsbook is useful. You can stay in the game, but not lose hard earned cash. Good luck.

[ravkes]

yes. Bet your life savings on one game, hope it wins, then never bet again. That's the only way

LOL, yea thats what i think. I remember the only time I won big was when I was betting on a few games but HUGE amounts.. however that type of play killed me over the long run cause I didnt stop when I was up.. Now Im down 8 grand lifetime if u include blackjack, poker, roulette, and lottery scratchoffs. I might go to vegas when im like 60 and put up 10 grand on a "sure" thing (maybe by then I'll have a friend who fixes games haha) so I can say that I beat the books lol

Here's a quote from Ocean's 11

"Play long enough, the house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes, you bet big - then you take the house."

But not your life savings, that's retarded lol

[john230]

Yeah, that Quote form Ocean's Eleven hits the nail on the head.

[Thor4140]

I used to have that POV. But now the games just make me stressed and not excited because I know that I don't have an advantage over the books so I'm not as optimistic - sports also get boring after you're watching like a game a day to pass the time to me. Are you a winning player? lol

Well im about JJ's age and i still have my hair. Looking at JJ sheet and his head, yes, i believe i am a winner. My proudest bet in my lifetime tho is when i beat Beantownjim out of 100 dollars. And yes Beaner pay's.

[ThaddeusB]

Of course its possible. For example, even over a large sample you could get very very lucky. Indeed, that is the usual way people win. It is also possible to win by actually having an edge, but that is very difficult.

Also, I had to comment on "if you pick the right sides you win 50%" which implies if you pick the wrong sides you win less than 50%. I wonder where the other few percentage points went.

Finally, the idiot who said college basketball is the worst sport to bet on is clueless. Nearly all true pros would agree that of the major American sports, CBB is by far the most beatable.

Thaddeus

[ravkes]

I want to know what you guys think of Mike Orkin in this talk - he's a statistics prof at cal state

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uupDrR0IqMA

He claims to talk about the real statistics behinds sports betting and other casino games.

Just a few points I got out of it:

- He talks about the house edge in point spreads (4.5%) and money lines (3.8%) - which are the typical profits a bookmaker makes if he puts up the right lines. Parlays have an even greater house edge. - I think the math checks out here.
- He emphasizes bookmakers playing the public - and says that they use "formulas" and have sports experts for every sport that create the optimal lines to get the right amount of money on each side so the bookmakers end up with a profit no matter what- He was kind of secretive here and didn't state which formulas they use though, any ideas?
- He also talks about how the most avid and self-proclaimed "successful" sports bettors, don't actually make money betting (or he doesn't know of any that do.. but they do so by advertising strategies and systems that people subscribe to in order to buy an "edge" that may or may not work. - LOL this is probably true, I've yet to meet a real-life profitable sports bettor who has the mathematical strategy/information to beat Vegas.

I think his reasons checks out - just wanted to share this to see what you guys thought.

**I will say it's really funny though how he basically advertises his sports betting software to help find edges (that may or may not work) for half of the talk and then goes on to say that regardless the house edge is against you lol.. wtf

[milwaukee mike]

ravkes if you could go back in time to the days of neteller and take tons of bonuses all over the place you couldn't lose.

it can still be done to a lesser extent.

what gives you a greater chance of being ahead over 100 bets
1) betting 100 teams in good spots? or
2) randomly betting 100 teams that you like or are on tv that you want to watch?
3) taking 10-20% bonuses and betting against yourself, also taking advantage of free contests/points at sbr?

#3 gives you a 100% chance of being ahead, #1 probably gives you about a 30% chance of being ahead after the juice, #2 gives you about 0% chance of being ahead

yes #3 isn't fun and it is time consuming but it's the only way to be ahead

[ravkes]

betting against yourself? what lol..
although i must say, the way i did in the past month that would have worked

#3 isn't even sports betting, it's getting bonuses and hoping you suck a lot combined with playing at a fake sportsbook that gives you no chance of winning anything worth something, but hey i guess that works man, cause at least i would have been up instead of down so much so i think you're strategy is the most accurate - funny how it has barely anything to do with actually knowing anything about sports betting

eh whatever.. i'm done with this crap, i know that i don't have the discipline, work ethic or knowledge (both mathematically and research-wise) to beat the books at a rate that would give me a decent ROI. even if i did at best i'd be able to get maybe 10% - i think that's what the sports professionals get right? like 62% or something? it's probably worth it to them since they have like a million dollar b-roll..

$1000 broll?.. woo hoo $100 back after so much work and stress f-that.

[The Hot Pepper]

ravkes do small bets on parlays and big bets on singles and you may be rich lol

I hit a 8-team parlay with 6 betpoints and now have around 670 xD

Everything is possible you just have to bet with your mind not heart and with a little bit of luck you will hit the jackpot.

[ravkes]

i took 27 dollars to 3,500.. then down to -500.. lol .. and before that i took little 50 dollar deposits to 300 and back down over and over again.. ha. ive lost so much money man it just isnt worth it anymore.. the fantasy is over, if you have no discipline the book is gonna take you every time.. whether its now or later.. youll lose.

good luck to those who are actually up all-time! quite a feat.. i coulda been.. shoulda been.. just got lazy and undisciplined.. now its not worth it.. the gambling disease is in me.. cant ever say that i could be disciplined. just kidding myself..

[BettingWizard]

Yep

[NHL Pro Capper]

I know a lot of ppl hate me, but trust me, I make money. And lol, I do make at least 50k a year. Here is how you do it...

First off, think of being a SUCCESSFUL sports gambler the same as an NBA or NFL athelete. Laugh all you want but it's the same deal. You need SKILL to actually win, then you need to MANAGE your money, and CONTROL your emotions.

NFL and NBA players, the black ones, sorry but true, usually are broke at the end of each year because even thou they are good at what they do, they blow their money, and do not manage it well. Most good gamblers do the same. They build a big bankroll, then they think this will last forever, and they buy a new big screen tv, upgrade the pad, buy some new clothing, start eating out every night, and then, they hit a patch of bad variance and their broke. So they wd their winnings and double, triple their bets, and they lose even more and its back to square one.

The key here is if you can pick 55-60%, NOW comes the NEXT STEP. It does NOT end there. CONTROL your emotions, DONT SPLURGE, increase your unit size and maintain your system THAT WORKS. MANAGE your money and bankroll properly, take a bit out of the winnings each week, and sure treat yourself, but remember if you want to do this for life, you have no idea the money you really need to spend when you hit 30 and have to pay for a house, car, kids, etc... your young so you don't need much money, but by the time you get older, you have to have everything working by then because IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO MASTER DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE and learn HOW TO WIN.

It took me 5 years to just learn how to control my emotions and not chase, or take longshots. It took lots of long hours every day actually doing work. When you win you think you can just start making picks in 5 min and not bother to cap anymore. You have to put in EFFORT every night. The moment you get lazy, you miss that key injury because the guy slipped off the bus at the arena and is a no go or took a ball to the eye in the warmup. 3-4 hours of work a day, + constantly reminding yourself of the cardinal rules, and MAINTAINING your composure and control over your bankroll and emotions. It can be done, but it REQUIRES JUST AS MUCH WORK AS ANY OTHER JOB. DONT BE LAZY.

[JohnGalt2341]

I know a lot of ppl hate me, but trust me, I make money. And lol, I do make at least 50k a year. Here is how you do it... First off, think of being a SUCCESSFUL sports gambler the same as an NBA or NFL athelete. Laugh all you want but it's the same deal. You need SKILL to actually win, then you need to MANAGE your money, and CONTROL your emotions. NFL and NBA players, the black ones, sorry but true, usually are broke at the end of each year because even thou they are good at what they do, they blow their money, and do not manage it well. Most good gamblers do the same. They build a big bankroll, then they think this will last forever, and they buy a new big screen tv, upgrade the pad, buy some new clothing, start eating out every night, and then, they hit a patch of bad variance and their broke. So they wd their winnings and double, triple their bets, and they lose even more and its back to square one. The key here is if you can pick 55-60%, NOW comes the NEXT STEP. It does NOT end there. CONTROL your emotions, DONT SPLURGE, increase your unit size and maintain your system THAT WORKS. MANAGE your money and bankroll properly, take a bit out of the winnings each week, and sure treat yourself, but remember if you want to do this for life, you have no idea the money you really need to spend when you hit 30 and have to pay for a house, car, kids, etc... your young so you don't need much money, but by the time you get older, you have to have everything working by then because IT TAKES A LONG TIME TO MASTER DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE and learn HOW TO WIN. It took me 5 years to just learn how to control my emotions and not chase, or take longshots. It took lots of long hours every day actually doing work. When you win you think you can just start making picks in 5 min and not bother to cap anymore. You have to put in EFFORT every night. The moment you get lazy, you miss that key injury because the guy slipped off the bus at the arena and is a no go or took a ball to the eye in the warmup. 3-4 hours of work a day, + constantly reminding yourself of the cardinal rules, and MAINTAINING your composure and control over your bankroll and emotions. It can be done, but it REQUIRES JUST AS MUCH WORK AS ANY OTHER JOB. DONT BE LAZY.

Very good post. Can I ask you a couple of questions? You said you make at least 50K a year... is this all from NHL? How many wagers would you say that you make in a average year and how much is your average wager?

[NHL Pro Capper]

Thank you John. My bets range from $200-$300 for singles, $100 for 2-3 game parlays. Yes you can make money in parlays, just get true odds to equal payout odds. I make 30-50 bets per week and make about $2000-$5000 a month, some months i lose 5k, some i win 5k, you have to ride the variance. Earlier this year i lost 7 weeks straight, i rode the storm, managed the money, and went forth. People say I am a big loser but it's all jelous lies. Just look at my post history, do the math, and look at my screenshots.

Anyways who cares about me. The point is you can make money doing this. 3 simple rules

1. Actually be a winner 54-60%
2. Manage your bankroll
3. Control your emotions, remember its a marathon, not a sprint

I take out money every monday, and track my profit and losses in all areas. Then I try to figure out WHY I lost and some bets I am really good at, i.e. picking puck line, others i just cant win, like NBA totals, so I stick to what I am good at. Don't just bet to bet, actually have a plan, and a reason.

***I will give you the most important thing I learned to be able to do this for a living, DON'T BET a lot per game or day, bet less than 5%, WHY? Because when you do lose, and you will a lot, IT DOES NOT FK with your EMOTIONS, and having control of them, and NOT SWEATING every night will make your life a lot easier. If you bet a lot, you tend to stress yourself out, piss off others, and be just in a crap mood all the time if you lose. So keeping your bets small and managed, you protect your bankroll AND your sanity.

GL

[frizzelli]

NHL pro capper hit under 25% of his posted plays in the sub forums the guy is a fukkin hamburger.

[NHL Pro Capper]

Frizelli is a liar. He just makes up numbers. I posted 21 plays, totalling 56% return. He won't go into my history and post the winners, just the losers, because the guy is an actual loser. Frizzelli, you stupid fat ass whop, get a life. The advice i gave is solid. You just hate your pathetic life cause you live in your parents basement, while you keep getting fatter and fatter off your mom's crappy pasta. You are a fat fk and you'd get your ass whooped any day. lol loser

[Hankwins]

what i'd like to know, with a bankroll of 10-15K and betting $100 everything a sports service like don best or whatever says to bet on, what kinda profit would be average for an MLB season? fell free to message me

[FourLengthsClear]

Very good post. Can I ask you a couple of questions? You said you make at least 50K a year... is this all from NHL? How many wagers would you say that you make in a average year and how much is your average wager?

If NHL Pro Capper is a winning player, I will extract one of my own teeth with a pair of pliers and post the video on SBR! Aside from Lemart, he is quite possibly the biggest BS artist on this site.

[ravkes]

NHL Pro Capper - 54-60% is winning for you and you make 50K a year?

How huge is your B-Roll? Are you Bill Gates? You could get 50K by winning less than 2% above the break-even point? LOL.. you must be hitting all of your parlays (which statistically are just plain horrible bets) then, cause that's a lot of action to make 50K off a 2% ROI..

[peeiempee]

i took 27 dollars to 3,500.. then down to -500.. lol .. and before that i took little 50 dollar deposits to 300 and back down over and over again.. ha. ive lost so much money man it just isnt worth it anymore.. the fantasy is over, if you have no discipline the book is gonna take you every time.. whether its now or later.. youll lose.

good luck to those who are actually up all-time! quite a feat.. i coulda been.. shoulda been.. just got lazy and undisciplined.. now its not worth it.. the gambling disease is in me.. cant ever say that i could be disciplined. just kidding myself..

Stick with this. The minute you don't believe the lines are set to try and get 50/50 action or have the house make money you best put your cash in a savings or ira

[ravkes]

Yea.. after 4 years i finally realized it just aint happenin.. i got lucky at first and that was the worst thing that could have happened to me.. actually tricked myself into thinking i had an edge.. the law of averages combined with huge bets and bad bets took its toll.. Man.. aint that some shit.