[LT Profits]

Line movement is the most accurate tool in the industry hands down............

And we all agree with that, but I would specify that the movement at Pinny is the most important.

[LT Profits]

KenPom is most valuable when used against bettable lines, not against lines that nobody has access to. And yes, I do think it is very easy to dismiss G-C or LVSC in ts previous life since Pinny doesn't always open close to the current Vegas line at the time, and it is always Vegas adjusting to Pinny. That should tell you all you need to know.

[No coincidences]

KenPom is most valuable when used against bettable lines, not against lines that nobody has access to. And yes, I do think it is very easy to dismiss G-C or LVSC in ts previous life since Pinny doesn't always open close to the current Vegas line at the time, and it is always Vegas adjusting to Pinny. That should tell you all you need to know.

So it's just a coincidence that the team whose movement from the G-C open to the Pinny close cashes in the 60-65% range on a consistent basis. Interesting.

I'm going to start tracking this.

[LT Profits]

So it's just a coincidence that the team whose movement from the G-C open to the Pinny close cashes in the 60-65% range on a consistent basis. Interesting.

I'm going to start tracking this.

AGAIN, that will NATURALLY be the case because the G-C open is weak. Can you not see that? LOL

[rm18]

Line movement matters except in Baylor games

[Bongo]

Anyone know what Brocks updated record is?

If his record is very bad, is it because he is getting worse than the closing line the majority of the time?

[sideloaded]

No coincidences is one of the worst pseudo sharps I've ever seen on a forum.

[LT Profits]

To put it simply, G-C opens -2, Pinny opens -6. Which line has a better chance of beating Pinny closer 65% of the time? Tracking it the way you describe is meaningless.

[PAULYPOKER]

No coincidences is one of the worst pseudo sharps I've ever seen on a forum.

he is not or ever claimed to be a sharp.............

[Inkwell77]

This year is unreal in college hoops. True sharps have to be absolutely killing.

Beating the closing line has had minimum impact this year in regards to just sides. Look at Pinny/Cris openers and look for 2 point or more line moves right before tip off and just follow the steam. You are absolutely killing. You would be up 36.8 units (240 plays so far) just following this simple steam chasing. Unreal.

Who knows what happens next. I would look for lines to get tighter and beating the closing line to become more important.

Don't look at this for some be all end all stuff, though. In the 2007-2008 season (412 plays) following this you would have been up +4.18 units.
And in the 2008-2009 season (357 plays) you would have been down -32.45 units.

[ApricotSinner32]

When something becomes public knowledge... it usually becomes less profitable if even still profitable at all. I have one thing to add to this conversation. Think like the books do and you will win like the books do.And even if you do that it's always going to be a grind never a pot of gold waiting for you after 3 hours of work.That is what this is it's brain work.

[HoulihansTX]

Look @ you guys talking line movement, when you could of just faded Brock.

[ApricotSinner32]

Look @ you guys talking line movement, when you could of just faded Brock.

It's not that simple. You see even a guy like brock can be on the right side a certain percentage of the time. And just because brock is losing does not mean fading him would necessarily be profitable.

[Inkwell77]

When something becomes public knowledge... it usually becomes less profitable if even still profitable at all. I have one thing to add to this conversation. Think like the books do and you will win like the books do.And even if you do that it's always going to be a grind never a pot of gold waiting for you after 3 hours of work.That is what this is it's brain work.

See, this is interesting. I always hear about a lot of line manipulation (especially in CBB), now I have no idea if this is true or not, but if I were the book I would look to manipulate lines like crazy in relatively small markets (CBB).

This is what I don't understand....
So books move the number because they take bets at a number that offers perceived value to a sharp player. The books don't want other sharps to get that same number so they move the number, I assume. Then if there is still value other sharps will bet the new number. The books will then move the number again because there is still supposed value at the new (2nd) number. Now all the while books can't move the numbers too much because they don't want to offer up the opportunity for a middle where both sides win (although sometimes I think this is bs, I'm still not sure how overhyped the idea of middling may or may not be). And because these numbers are usually pretty good if a book moves off 3 points from their original number I would assume that a sharp could middle said game at a rate that is better than the 1 out of 20 rate that one needs to break even.

I will assume that betting a sport like NFL, if you are on the same side as the sharps, you will almost always make money. If you follow the big money, you will do well. One thing is that you never really know if it is a syndicate/sharp making a play or an arb guy making a play. In Vegas it is difficult to tell the difference. Online it is probably impossible.

Tonight for instance, the Texans were -7 +115 at one of the sharpest books in town for a period of time. Then, I would assume an arb guy saw this and saw a simple scalp and came in and bet this number. Later the number went to Texans -7 -105. So nobody knows what exactly happened, but from the line movement one would assume something like this happened. Although, it all could be bs and I could have it all wrong. This is one of the best parts about the game. One you start to dig, you start to come up with all sorts of stuff. A lot of it is bs, a lot of it could be good, who knows. That is what the game is all about. You just have to keep your head on straight. That is actually one of the best parts about Vegas, you see all these people who are insane and I might argue it helps one stay sane. Get in that butteryass mind zone!!

[ApricotSinner32]

See, this is interesting. I always hear about a lot of line manipulation (especially in CBB), now I have no idea if this is true or not, but if I were the book I would look to manipulate lines like crazy in relatively small markets (CBB).

This is what I don't understand....
So books move the number because they take bets at a number that offers perceived value to a sharp player. The books don't want other sharps to get that same number so they move the number, I assume. Then if there is still value other sharps will bet the new number. The books will then move the number again because there is still supposed value at the new (2nd) number. Now all the while books can't move the numbers too much because they don't want to offer up the opportunity for a middle where both sides win (although sometimes I think this is bs, I'm still not sure how overhyped the idea of middling may or may not be). And because these numbers are usually pretty good if a book moves off 3 points from their original number I would assume that a sharp could middle said game at a rate that is better than the 1 out of 20 rate that one needs to break even.

I will assume that betting a sport like NFL, if you are on the same side as the sharps, you will almost always make money. If you follow the big money, you will do well. One thing is that you never really know if it is a syndicate/sharp making a play or an arb guy making a play. In Vegas it is difficult to tell the difference. Online it is probably impossible.

Tonight for instance, the Texans were -7 +115 at one of the sharpest books in town for a period of time. Then, I would assume an arb guy saw this and saw a simple scalp and came in and bet this number. Later the number went to Texans -7 -105. So nobody knows what exactly happened, but from the line movement one would assume something like this happened. Although, it all could be bs and I could have it all wrong. This is one of the best parts about the game. One you start to dig, you start to come up with all sorts of stuff. A lot of it is bs, a lot of it could be good, who knows. That is what the game is all about. You just have to keep your head on straight. That is actually one of the best parts about Vegas, you see all these people who are insane and I might argue it helps one stay sane. Get in that butteryass mind zone!!

tldr

And I do not believe we are talking about the same thing here.

[jjgold]

This year is unreal in college hoops. True sharps have to be absolutely killing.

Beating the closing line has had minimum impact this year in regards to just sides. Look at Pinny/Cris openers and look for 2 point or more line moves right before tip off and just follow the steam. You are absolutely killing. You would be up 36.8 units (240 plays so far) just following this simple steam chasing. Unreal.

Who knows what happens next. I would look for lines to get tighter and beating the closing line to become more important.

Don't look at this for some be all end all stuff, though. In the 2007-2008 season (412 plays) following this you would have been up +4.18 units.
And in the 2008-2009 season (357 plays) you would have been down -32.45 units.

Fuk me...there is a guy that knows what is going on

[ApricotSinner32]

Fuk me...there is a guy that knows what is going on

[crustyme]

broke is so similar to lang its scary. not only are they on frequent 0-fer-25 runs but they also go against teams that screwed them in the past such as ill vs unlv. i guess its their way of exacting revenge but they always end up getting screwed again. their small brains dont comprehend that each game & matchup is different.

broke santa delivers again.

[brumbies]

what is g-c?

[No coincidences]

AGAIN, that will NATURALLY be the case because the G-C open is weak. Can you not see that? LOL

What makes the G-C opener "weak"? Places like Pinny basically copy KenPom's numbers for their opening lines -- why is KenPom such a wealth of information and G-C isn't? Both use advanced stats to predict outcomes of games, which books in turn use to set lines.

Even if the G-C numbers are "weak," I'd say it's a nice tip to what might be a play if Pinny takes a -2 and turns it into a -4 or -5, wouldn't you? Again, why is that not valuable information -- the fact that a power rating system has a team at -2 but Pinny sees something that should advance the number?

[No coincidences]

No coincidences is one of the worst pseudo sharps I've ever seen on a forum.

Where did I ever claim to be a "sharp"?

[No coincidences]

what is g-c?

Glantz-Culver. It's a power rating system of sorts that posts initial lines before the books do (well, other than BOL, which seems to follow them) -- typically early to mid-afternoon the day before games.

[jjgold]

[sweep]

Brizzy Brock Landers..get'em next time BL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjDdz...yer_detailpage

[LT Profits]

Even if the G-C numbers are "weak," I'd say it's a nice tip to what might be a play if Pinny takes a -2 and turns it into a -4 or -5, wouldn't you? Again, why is that not valuable information -- the fact that a power rating system has a team at -2 but Pinny sees something that should advance the number?

That last part basically verifies that the Pinny line is better. As for the early part, not necessarily because what was a great play at G-C line of -2 isn't necessarily a good play at Pinny line of -4 or -5, especially if Pinny stays static. Now if the line remains dynamic after Pinny opener and moves, then THAT would be a tip to who the right side is. But even there, I evaluate everything off of Pinny opener and pay zero attention to earlier lines. And like I said (or you can see), that approach has suited me well.

[No coincidences]

That last part basically verifies that the Pinny line is better. As for the early part, not necessarily because what was a great play at G-C line of -2 isn't necessarily a good play at Pinny line of -4 or -5, especially if Pinny stays static. Now if the line remains dynamic after Pinny opener and moves, then THAT would be a tip to who the right side is. But even there, I evaluate everything off of Pinny opener and pay zero attention to earlier lines. And like I said (or you can see), that approach has suited me well.

I'm just surprised that someone who is so committed to KenPom is so dismissive of G-C -- especially given how similar they are in their purpose and objective.

[crustyme]

Anyone know what Brocks updated record is?

If his record is very bad, is it because he is getting worse than the closing line the majority of the time?

not sure about his normal plays but his rubberbroke plays (his top all-in picks) are 1-25 since sep 2010.

lines dont matter cause he often loses outright.



im convinced the only ones that "tail" this clown are employees of sbr and offshore books in an attempt to get noobs to follow along.

its funny when this clown holds grudges and picks against teams that screwed him the day before, only to get fuked two days in a row. only clueless idiots hold grudges and picks against to exact revenge.

[d2bets]

not sure about his normal plays but his rubberbroke plays (his top all-in picks) are 1-25 since sep 2010.

lines dont matter cause he often loses outright.



im convinced the only ones that "tail" this clown are employees of sbr and offshore books in an attempt to get noobs to follow along.

its funny when this clown holds grudges and picks against teams that screwed him the day before, only to get fuked two days in a row. only clueless idiots hold grudges and picks against to exact revenge.

Is that a fact, really??? If so, that is fukkin impressive.

[jgray]

LT, NoCon,

You guys have been having a fascinating conversation. We don't get this kind of dicussion too often. Well done.

[thetrinity]

good points from both of you lt n nocon, 2 guys who actually seem to understand what this is really about on here.

landers as for you, your bookie must feel like its christmas 365 days a year. you are always good for a laugh at least though.

[No coincidences]

good points from both of you lt n nocon, 2 guys who actually seem to understand what this is really about on here.

landers as for you, your bookie must feel like its christmas 365 days a year. you are always good for a laugh at least though.

I want to clarify one thing: I'm not disagreeing with LT, and I really respect his opinion. I'm here to learn first and foremost. I just figured the more I know about a game, the better -- which would include any lines you can see beforehand to compare with Pinnacle's later in the day.

[milwaukee mike]

Is that a fact, really??? If so, that is fukkin impressive.

it sure seems like 1-25
if that's not the real number it is awfully close

[HoulihansTX]

Continue to waste time talking about a line movement...

Brock was on Mizzou, nuff said.

[opie1988]

No coincidences is one of the worst pseudo sharps I've ever seen on a forum.

Then you need to get a clue, pal.

No Coin is a great asset to SBR. One of our very sharpest posters.

[No coincidences]

Then you need to get a clue, pal.

No Coin is a great asset to SBR. One of our very sharpest posters.

Thanks for the vote of confidence opie, but there are plenty of posters out there who know more and are better than me. I'm still in the learning process; just starting my third season in the game.

I've been a fan of baseball, basketball and football for over 30 years, but gambling is a newfound addiction -- err, hobby -- that has a fvcking vice grip on me now. Always been a big sports guy and a number cruncher, so conversations like these are the perfect storm for me. Love talking/analyzing lines....get more of a thrill out of that than winning my penny ante bets.