[jorge1]

My last comment, before goin to bed, is: money management is EVERYTHING..in all of betting, but mostly in bases...

Bases is the game where you dont really regret a game..you regret a price...I regret prices i pay stupidly, but certainly not GAMES...

also, someone said alot of people say they clean up but no one realyl does...true, but some of us do well in bases...i was unemployed last year from june till october i think, and i made my living off bases..had my ups and downs, but eeither way, 5dimes paid the rent...

For those of you who start bases as i did about 3 years ago, i have this advise - it takes time...lessons to be learned...first year, dont look to be BANKIN'...hopefully you DO make a profit, but honestly, when all is said and done, unless u r fackin, mr DISCIPLINE, a numbers GIANT, and super good with line movement, plus have MR MIYAGI to teach you the CHI of bases, then itll be a rough one...

The second year, youll have rough patches, and great streaks....but hopefully by third or fourth season you start really getting it and know to dsicpline so that the patches arent as rough, and you dont live on the HIGH of streaks...

Speaking of streaks - Id like to mention something else - the formula you have at the beginning of the year is CERTAINLY not going to last throughout the year!its simply NOT...the season FLOWS and has its usual ups and downs..youll have teams jump ahead, pitchers have great starts of the year, but can you call their SLUMPS in july or august? cna you call who will make it interesting down the home stretch heading to october...can you call which dog comes out of the all star break on a CRAZY STREAK - example - ORIOLES last season! or even the stupid CUBS! and can you call which teams will slump bad? Example, ST LOUIS last year after a great start?

Pitchers? Pitchers are great for public perception...you have to weigh the public perception versus the ACTUAL odds of them winning...i LOVEEEEEE fading sabathia, at the right moments...for example...or lookin for that GREAT pitcher make his way to his 20th win of the season...TRUST ME! look it up! look up what is the percentage of pitchers that consecutively win their 19th and 20th game? jajaja..this one is a money machine man!

and like that there are many...like those games in august-september, when they bring some no-name cuban pitchers out of nowhere to face each other, and the total is over/under 9.5 or 10 and they pitch entier games and its a 1-0 final score? jajaja....

Anyways, i laugh because bases = MADNESS! forget MARCH MADNESS..BASES is madness..finding streaks inside of streaaks inside of streaks! finding percentages of percentages, or calculating edges OF EDGES...

give you an example...last year, i, AT ONE PT started writing an ALGORYTHM to track PACO's success, and its fluctuation...off of it, i tried predicting plays, OFF HIS PREDICTIONS! for fun! lol...$hit was NUTS now that i think of it...jsut mid season madness...

enjoy fellas...see ya at the end of the tunnel...let the laast two words i write today be MONEY MANAGEMENT!

[asdfghasdfgh]

IMO, you cannot look at baseball on a game by game basis...you must look at baseball as it is, THE LUMP SUM of all games...thats the BEAUTY of baseball..the number of games...sure, wild things happen in games, but they happen either way, in your favor, and against..so, with all due respect, this is a pt that you will overcome if u bet lumpsum....meaning, you dont wager a significant amount in any one game.

People make money at baseball by being patient, by picking spots, and by studying line movement. There are so many angles...its incredible.

BTW, you are right..its not steady like basketball..every game is different and must be capped accordingly. but if u ask me, college basketball is erratic as hell...what i do for that sport is make a pick, chose the opposite, and cash my tickets, because its SUPER counter intuitive! other than halfs...



Baseball, just like any other sport, is like investing..there are different products..there are stocks, bonds, IRA's, retirement investment, 401K funds, Call-bonds, etc etc...First 5 innings are one of baseball's investment products, and MUST be capped accordingly...

I beg to differ with your comment on not cappin bullpens...If you are struggling capping entire games, its probably because you arent capping bullpens correctly...No offense..please, dont take my comments as such..just constructive criticism...

There are different ways to cap - F5 is obviously gonna weigh HEAVILY on opening pitcher....entire game is going to rely on a mixture of factors...those being: Opening pitcher, bullpens, Last five games, last series against each other, current game sin current series, hom plate UMP..etc etc.



Word of advise..this advise works! it does..not talkin trash, or anything, but the best approach is to cap before the season which teams you like all season..then weed out the ones that are usually OVER PRICED - i.e. NYY, or prior year's World Champs...etc...So pick a team that YOU KNOW is strong, but underrated..and stick to it..great idea..but this year, Phillies and giants, NOT SUCH GOOD IDEA..too much hype behind them PRE SEASON..its STAMPED in everyones brain that these teams will win almost every game, when that is NOT true..if they win 60%+ theyd be lucky..soooo, why not pick the spots when you ffel they might lose and cash the dogs instead?



Great advise...its not the only sport where you have an advantage..i dont think..in every sport there is an edge..but its the sport that is bet by ppl that know more about it..meaning, WHO BETS ON BASES that doestn know SOMETHING about it?

instead, in football, for example, you have these weekend warriors that swear they know about betting just because they put 200 BUCKS on their favorite team come saturday, OR SUNDAY!

bases is for actual Fans (in general)...so yes, MORE OF US win more often than any other sport...but it doesnt necesarily make the books LESS sharp, in my opinion...


guys, i hope all the commentary i left for others is taken as FRIENDLY discussion..not mean argument...i mean it all RESPECTFULLY, and its MY OPINION...not that no one else isnt correct...its JUST WHAT I THINK...

please comment back!

Great advice man. This is my first season of betting on bases and I want to get started right. Solid advice throughout this thread, keep it coming everyone!

[jorge1]

Thanks bro..i been jus tcheckin in and writing babble all over the place..but thourhgout the season i always write new ideas on strategies, on edges, etc...hopefully ill see ya around...any questions, never ceise to ask

[jjgold]

Baseball betting is like taking candy from a baby... Too easy.

I guess you do not work and bet $5,000 per game then??

Busted

[Sawyer]

Well said Jorge,

Money management is extremely important.

Another important thing is Line Shopping,

You may be a great capper but if you're using a 20-cent bookie (Betsson, TheGreek, Bookmaker) for bases, you should know that you're leaving a fortune on the table.

Make sure you have these:

5Dimes, Betjamaica, Betfair*, Pinnacle*, Matchbook*.

* These books are not available for US Bettors.

Stay away from 20-cent books. Odds are important.

I wish everyone a profitable baseball season.