[gauchojake]

Originally posted on 05/20/2022:

You know, Gold, there is another side to this coin.

It is a market fact that often times the best bet to make is the toughest one to swallow.

Why don’t you track a strategy where you bet the games you don’t like?

Better yet, quantify “like” or “don’t like” so the decision is more clear cut, taking out emotion. Eventually you’re going to need to make some kind of ratings to determine what you like.

Very few people are successful at simply subjective betting over time, the biggest reason is because it runs so hot and cold and they get emotional. Emotions don’t just short circuit rational thinking, they also have an effect on intuitive, subjective, thinking.

Remove those emotions and you might find value in bets you never would have thought about making.

I'm so bad about tracking my bets, but anecdotally just about every bet I "love" is a loser. The bets that I don't love but know it's the right play even though I'm hesitant to pull the trigger are usually winners.