Originally posted on 08/16/2021:

If you've been flat betting SF Giants every game this season for 1* a game you'd be plus 2635 dollars to date.
1* (one unit) is generally regarded as a 100 dollar wager.

Unless you are a cradle to grave SF Giants fan that goes through life wearing black and orange sunglasses nobody, but nobody saw this coming in a NL West Division so loaded with talent (SD and LA)


Here are the mind numbing facts that only us analytic geeks get off on, but these numbers are mind boggling after you consider the brutal SoS (strength of schedule) and all that other data.

San Francisco has played 118 games to date.
Of which they have won 76 and lost 42 which is a win rate of 64,4 percent
162 (regular season scheduled games) multiplied by .644 puts the Giants on a 104 win season.

At 76 and 42 SF has won 34 more games then they have lost.
A 1* wager at even money nets you 3400 dollars not the current 2635 you're plus now.

Just for shits and giggles I figured out the average betting line (how much you would juice you would have to lay) every time the Giants took the field.
(In case you're keeping score at home, and I know you are) the average price of betting SF every game so far is -127
You're collecting 77.5 cents on each dollar you're betting, 3400 dollars bet to win 2635 dollars means you're laying 22.5 percent or -127

There is only one other team in MLB that has a net profit of over 20* and that's the Seattle Mariners.
That's not shocking to me like the Giants, if you remember back in April I wrote a piece on opening day after reviewing all 30 teams starting pitching rotations that the M's front four starters (one through four) all were left handed pitchers. I remember that's going to wreak havoc on most teams that can't hit LHP well.
Left handed pitchers are a different animal all together, their pitches come at you from all sorts of funky angles and most hitters are not used to see all LHP starters in a three game weekend series for instance.
As a righty I hated to face any left handed pitcher with a nasty curve, I can relate.
What's funny about that opening day Mariner pitching staff was four of the five rotation guys were left handed, and five of the six relievers were right handed.

It's a good thing manager Scott Servais isn't a dickhead, if the opposing manager stacked his lineup with his bench players that could hit LHP well Servais could yank the starter in the third inning and go to a bullpen by committee featuring all of his right handed relievers.

But Servais isn't a dickhead, he's actually a good manager.
Know why I think he's been successful with the M's lately?
Because he's a former catcher, and time has proven almost all former catchers make for good bench managers.
Because they know pitching, the catcher (not the shortstop) is most teams field general.
They need to know what batters hit what pitch well, they need to be two, three pitches ahead of every pitch, what to call for if for instance a count gets to 1 and 2 on or batter, or what to call for on a full count...
They need to know there to position each of his fielders, and on and on.

Catchers are goofy though.
I know, I was a scholastic catcher for years.
Yogi was the goofiest.

Here's one that I didn't see coming up Broadway.
If you bet the Detroit Tigers each and every game so far you'd be up +1257 dollars.
That's a case of a collection of unheard of but talented ball players overachieving. Just my guess.
Good on Detroit, that's a good baseball city, good for them.
Now if the Pirates can get their shit together.

Not for nothing, the Diamondbacks are the biggest money burners I've seen in over a decade.
Minus 31 units for a 162 game season is not just wrong, it's wrong on a whole different level.

Final point for all of us with short term memory.
Yes the chalk has been crushing it the past week or so, the heavy -200 favorites have been cashing fast and furious lately, but aren't we forgetting about opening week in April when ten out of eleven -200 favorites, that's right the -200 favorites went 1 and 10 outright first weekend in April that destroyed most bettors bankroll.

If you were on this current heater the chalk just went on I bet you still haven't recovered from that carnage back in April