1. #1
    stevenash
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    If you've been flat betting SF Giants every game this season...

    If you've been flat betting SF Giants every game this season for 1* a game you'd be plus 2635 dollars to date.
    1* (one unit) is generally regarded as a 100 dollar wager.

    Unless you are a cradle to grave SF Giants fan that goes through life wearing black and orange sunglasses nobody, but nobody saw this coming in a NL West Division so loaded with talent (SD and LA)


    Here are the mind numbing facts that only us analytic geeks get off on, but these numbers are mind boggling after you consider the brutal SoS (strength of schedule) and all that other data.

    San Francisco has played 118 games to date.
    Of which they have won 76 and lost 42 which is a win rate of 64,4 percent
    162 (regular season scheduled games) multiplied by .644 puts the Giants on a 104 win season.

    At 76 and 42 SF has won 34 more games then they have lost.
    A 1* wager at even money nets you 3400 dollars not the current 2635 you're plus now.

    Just for shits and giggles I figured out the average betting line (how much you would juice you would have to lay) every time the Giants took the field.
    (In case you're keeping score at home, and I know you are) the average price of betting SF every game so far is -127
    You're collecting 77.5 cents on each dollar you're betting, 3400 dollars bet to win 2635 dollars means you're laying 22.5 percent or -127

    There is only one other team in MLB that has a net profit of over 20* and that's the Seattle Mariners.
    That's not shocking to me like the Giants, if you remember back in April I wrote a piece on opening day after reviewing all 30 teams starting pitching rotations that the M's front four starters (one through four) all were left handed pitchers. I remember that's going to wreak havoc on most teams that can't hit LHP well.
    Left handed pitchers are a different animal all together, their pitches come at you from all sorts of funky angles and most hitters are not used to see all LHP starters in a three game weekend series for instance.
    As a righty I hated to face any left handed pitcher with a nasty curve, I can relate.
    What's funny about that opening day Mariner pitching staff was four of the five rotation guys were left handed, and five of the six relievers were right handed.

    It's a good thing manager Scott Servais isn't a dickhead, if the opposing manager stacked his lineup with his bench players that could hit LHP well Servais could yank the starter in the third inning and go to a bullpen by committee featuring all of his right handed relievers.

    But Servais isn't a dickhead, he's actually a good manager.
    Know why I think he's been successful with the M's lately?
    Because he's a former catcher, and time has proven almost all former catchers make for good bench managers.
    Because they know pitching, the catcher (not the shortstop) is most teams field general.
    They need to know what batters hit what pitch well, they need to be two, three pitches ahead of every pitch, what to call for if for instance a count gets to 1 and 2 on or batter, or what to call for on a full count...
    They need to know there to position each of his fielders, and on and on.

    Catchers are goofy though.
    I know, I was a scholastic catcher for years.
    Yogi was the goofiest.

    Here's one that I didn't see coming up Broadway.
    If you bet the Detroit Tigers each and every game so far you'd be up +1257 dollars.
    That's a case of a collection of unheard of but talented ball players overachieving. Just my guess.
    Good on Detroit, that's a good baseball city, good for them.
    Now if the Pirates can get their shit together.

    Not for nothing, the Diamondbacks are the biggest money burners I've seen in over a decade.
    Minus 31 units for a 162 game season is not just wrong, it's wrong on a whole different level.

    Final point for all of us with short term memory.
    Yes the chalk has been crushing it the past week or so, the heavy -200 favorites have been cashing fast and furious lately, but aren't we forgetting about opening week in April when ten out of eleven -200 favorites, that's right the -200 favorites went 1 and 10 outright first weekend in April that destroyed most bettors bankroll.

    If you were on this current heater the chalk just went on I bet you still haven't recovered from that carnage back in April
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 2 times . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: mikejamm, and jackpot269

  2. #2
    mngambler
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    fun fact....If you bought just 1/2 of a Bitcoin on Jan 1 2021 you'd be up $7,500 today

  3. #3
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by mngambler View Post
    fun fact....If you bought just 1/2 of a Bitcoin on Jan 1 2021 you'd be up $7,500 today

    Ironic you bring this up.
    I read a good piece this morning on Ethereum on Coindesk.
    The team that put together that website by the way did a remarkable job, extremely impressive.

    I considered alt coins and such long and hard, that doesn't mean I won't get in, I may, but as an IT guy, cybercrime is a major issue with me.
    For every one good 'cyber police detective' there are ten professional cyber criminals.
    That's just one of several issues I have there.

    Listen, more power to all you guys who (pardon the pun) are making major coin with crypto, I'm still not sold on it yet.

  4. #4
    hubie69
    I am JJs bookie
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Ironic you bring this up.
    I read a good piece this morning on Ethereum on Coindesk.
    The team that put together that website by the way did a remarkable job, extremely impressive.

    I considered alt coins and such long and hard, that doesn't mean I won't get in, I may, but as an IT guy, cybercrime is a major issue with me.
    For every one good 'cyber police detective' there are ten professional cyber criminals.
    That's just one of several issues I have there.

    Listen, more power to all you guys who (pardon the pun) are making major coin with crypto, I'm still not sold on it yet.
    Exact same boat here Nasher, you know I'm an IT guy. I dabble in BTC merely to move money around but have little to no interest in holding BTC or any other coin for that matter. I tend to be fairly risk averse in such things though.

    More power to the guys who can grind on it, just not a market I understand and/or wish to get involved with

  5. #5
    ttwarrior1
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    and with jobs, up no telling how much

  6. #6
    jackpot269
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    Steve great write up!! It was a good read, !! Like the way you use hard numbers to show your percentages EX. 76W and 42L is a win rate of 64,4 percent. That way I know you had a good sample size if you had just said they are winning 64.4% and it was just the first 10 games of season it wouldn't mean much to me!!

    Anyhow I bought some
    Ethereum about 3 months ago have not checked it in a couple of weeks but I'm happy so far!!





  7. #7
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackpot269 View Post
    Steve great write up!! It was a good read, !! Like the way you use hard numbers to show your percentages EX. 76W and 42L is a win rate of 64,4 percent. That way I know you had a good sample size if you had just said they are winning 64.4% and it was just the first 10 games of season it wouldn't mean much to me!!

    Anyhow I bought some
    Ethereum about 3 months ago have not checked it in a couple of weeks but I'm happy so far!!




    Thanks for the words.
    Appreciate it.
    I even appreciate it more that people read my geeky stuff.
    Thanks.

  8. #8
    Booya711
    Big Dikk Energy
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    This plus fading Morino…..ho le fukk….retirement

  9. #9
    slayer14
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    It insane to think they where 40/1 to win the division

  10. #10
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    If you've been flat betting SF Giants every game this season for 1* a game you'd be plus 2635 dollars to date.
    1* (one unit) is generally regarded as a 100 dollar wager.

    Unless you are a cradle to grave SF Giants fan that goes through life wearing black and orange sunglasses nobody, but nobody saw this coming in a NL West Division so loaded with talent (SD and LA)


    Here are the mind numbing facts that only us analytic geeks get off on, but these numbers are mind boggling after you consider the brutal SoS (strength of schedule) and all that other data.

    San Francisco has played 118 games to date.
    Of which they have won 76 and lost 42 which is a win rate of 64,4 percent
    162 (regular season scheduled games) multiplied by .644 puts the Giants on a 104 win season.

    At 76 and 42 SF has won 34 more games then they have lost.
    A 1* wager at even money nets you 3400 dollars not the current 2635 you're plus now.

    Just for shits and giggles I figured out the average betting line (how much you would juice you would have to lay) every time the Giants took the field.
    (In case you're keeping score at home, and I know you are) the average price of betting SF every game so far is -127
    You're collecting 77.5 cents on each dollar you're betting, 3400 dollars bet to win 2635 dollars means you're laying 22.5 percent or -127

    There is only one other team in MLB that has a net profit of over 20* and that's the Seattle Mariners.
    That's not shocking to me like the Giants, if you remember back in April I wrote a piece on opening day after reviewing all 30 teams starting pitching rotations that the M's front four starters (one through four) all were left handed pitchers. I remember that's going to wreak havoc on most teams that can't hit LHP well.
    Left handed pitchers are a different animal all together, their pitches come at you from all sorts of funky angles and most hitters are not used to see all LHP starters in a three game weekend series for instance.
    As a righty I hated to face any left handed pitcher with a nasty curve, I can relate.
    What's funny about that opening day Mariner pitching staff was four of the five rotation guys were left handed, and five of the six relievers were right handed.

    It's a good thing manager Scott Servais isn't a dickhead, if the opposing manager stacked his lineup with his bench players that could hit LHP well Servais could yank the starter in the third inning and go to a bullpen by committee featuring all of his right handed relievers.

    But Servais isn't a dickhead, he's actually a good manager.
    Know why I think he's been successful with the M's lately?
    Because he's a former catcher, and time has proven almost all former catchers make for good bench managers.
    Because they know pitching, the catcher (not the shortstop) is most teams field general.
    They need to know what batters hit what pitch well, they need to be two, three pitches ahead of every pitch, what to call for if for instance a count gets to 1 and 2 on or batter, or what to call for on a full count...
    They need to know there to position each of his fielders, and on and on.

    Catchers are goofy though.
    I know, I was a scholastic catcher for years.
    Yogi was the goofiest.

    Here's one that I didn't see coming up Broadway.
    If you bet the Detroit Tigers each and every game so far you'd be up +1257 dollars.
    That's a case of a collection of unheard of but talented ball players overachieving. Just my guess.
    Good on Detroit, that's a good baseball city, good for them.
    Now if the Pirates can get their shit together.

    Not for nothing, the Diamondbacks are the biggest money burners I've seen in over a decade.
    Minus 31 units for a 162 game season is not just wrong, it's wrong on a whole different level.

    Final point for all of us with short term memory.
    Yes the chalk has been crushing it the past week or so, the heavy -200 favorites have been cashing fast and furious lately, but aren't we forgetting about opening week in April when ten out of eleven -200 favorites, that's right the -200 favorites went 1 and 10 outright first weekend in April that destroyed most bettors bankroll.

    If you were on this current heater the chalk just went on I bet you still haven't recovered from that carnage back in April
    This guy fuks

  11. #11
    JIBBBY
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    I prefer to keep it simple and continue to fade teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs whom are both currently on 11 game losing streaks. It's been a free money ride and you don't even need to cap the games.

    Just pay the juice and auto fade play until it pops..

    Streaks end but you ride em until they pop. You can win money that way betting MLB losing teams as well as winning teams.

  12. #12
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I prefer to keep it simple and continue to fade teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs whom are both currently on 11 game losing streaks. It's been a free money ride and you don't even need to cap the games.

    Just pay the juice and auto fade play until it pops..

    Streaks end but you ride em until they pop. You can win money that way betting MLB losing teams as well as winning teams.
    My ONLY MLB bet today is REDS, Nasher.

  13. #13
    Booya711
    Big Dikk Energy
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    Nasher always with great insight and knowledge….but as Morino will say he is just a “dumb shit”

  14. #14
    7deuceoff$uit
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    If you've been flat betting SF Giants every game this season for 1* a game you'd be plus 2635 dollars to date.
    1* (one unit) is generally regarded as a 100 dollar wager.

    Unless you are a cradle to grave SF Giants fan that goes through life wearing black and orange sunglasses nobody, but nobody saw this coming in a NL West Division so loaded with talent (SD and LA)


    Here are the mind numbing facts that only us analytic geeks get off on, but these numbers are mind boggling after you consider the brutal SoS (strength of schedule) and all that other data.

    San Francisco has played 118 games to date.
    Of which they have won 76 and lost 42 which is a win rate of 64,4 percent
    162 (regular season scheduled games) multiplied by .644 puts the Giants on a 104 win season.

    At 76 and 42 SF has won 34 more games then they have lost.
    A 1* wager at even money nets you 3400 dollars not the current 2635 you're plus now.

    Just for shits and giggles I figured out the average betting line (how much you would juice you would have to lay) every time the Giants took the field.
    (In case you're keeping score at home, and I know you are) the average price of betting SF every game so far is -127
    You're collecting 77.5 cents on each dollar you're betting, 3400 dollars bet to win 2635 dollars means you're laying 22.5 percent or -127

    There is only one other team in MLB that has a net profit of over 20* and that's the Seattle Mariners.
    That's not shocking to me like the Giants, if you remember back in April I wrote a piece on opening day after reviewing all 30 teams starting pitching rotations that the M's front four starters (one through four) all were left handed pitchers. I remember that's going to wreak havoc on most teams that can't hit LHP well.
    Left handed pitchers are a different animal all together, their pitches come at you from all sorts of funky angles and most hitters are not used to see all LHP starters in a three game weekend series for instance.
    As a righty I hated to face any left handed pitcher with a nasty curve, I can relate.
    What's funny about that opening day Mariner pitching staff was four of the five rotation guys were left handed, and five of the six relievers were right handed.

    It's a good thing manager Scott Servais isn't a dickhead, if the opposing manager stacked his lineup with his bench players that could hit LHP well Servais could yank the starter in the third inning and go to a bullpen by committee featuring all of his right handed relievers.

    But Servais isn't a dickhead, he's actually a good manager.
    Know why I think he's been successful with the M's lately?
    Because he's a former catcher, and time has proven almost all former catchers make for good bench managers.
    Because they know pitching, the catcher (not the shortstop) is most teams field general.
    They need to know what batters hit what pitch well, they need to be two, three pitches ahead of every pitch, what to call for if for instance a count gets to 1 and 2 on or batter, or what to call for on a full count...
    They need to know there to position each of his fielders, and on and on.

    Catchers are goofy though.
    I know, I was a scholastic catcher for years.
    Yogi was the goofiest.

    Here's one that I didn't see coming up Broadway.
    If you bet the Detroit Tigers each and every game so far you'd be up +1257 dollars.
    That's a case of a collection of unheard of but talented ball players overachieving. Just my guess.
    Good on Detroit, that's a good baseball city, good for them.
    Now if the Pirates can get their shit together.

    Not for nothing, the Diamondbacks are the biggest money burners I've seen in over a decade.
    Minus 31 units for a 162 game season is not just wrong, it's wrong on a whole different level.

    Final point for all of us with short term memory.
    Yes the chalk has been crushing it the past week or so, the heavy -200 favorites have been cashing fast and furious lately, but aren't we forgetting about opening week in April when ten out of eleven -200 favorites, that's right the -200 favorites went 1 and 10 outright first weekend in April that destroyed most bettors bankroll.

    If you were on this current heater the chalk just went on I bet you still haven't recovered from that carnage back in April
    Big Giants fan here and I didn't see this coming at all.

  15. #15
    Chi_archie
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    good stuff, nasher

    I wonder what the best Return on investment for a team over a full 162 game season was ever?

  16. #16
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by mngambler View Post
    fun fact....If you bought just 1/2 of a Bitcoin on Jan 1 2021 you'd be up $7,500 today

  17. #17
    Orbison
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    good stuff Steve, enjoyed it

  18. #18
    mjsuax13
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    If you've been flat betting SF Giants every game this season for 1* a game you'd be plus 2635 dollars to date.
    1* (one unit) is generally regarded as a 100 dollar wager.

    Unless you are a cradle to grave SF Giants fan that goes through life wearing black and orange sunglasses nobody, but nobody saw this coming in a NL West Division so loaded with talent (SD and LA)


    Here are the mind numbing facts that only us analytic geeks get off on, but these numbers are mind boggling after you consider the brutal SoS (strength of schedule) and all that other data.

    San Francisco has played 118 games to date.
    Of which they have won 76 and lost 42 which is a win rate of 64,4 percent
    162 (regular season scheduled games) multiplied by .644 puts the Giants on a 104 win season.

    At 76 and 42 SF has won 34 more games then they have lost.
    A 1* wager at even money nets you 3400 dollars not the current 2635 you're plus now.

    Just for shits and giggles I figured out the average betting line (how much you would juice you would have to lay) every time the Giants took the field.
    (In case you're keeping score at home, and I know you are) the average price of betting SF every game so far is -127
    You're collecting 77.5 cents on each dollar you're betting, 3400 dollars bet to win 2635 dollars means you're laying 22.5 percent or -127

    There is only one other team in MLB that has a net profit of over 20* and that's the Seattle Mariners.
    That's not shocking to me like the Giants, if you remember back in April I wrote a piece on opening day after reviewing all 30 teams starting pitching rotations that the M's front four starters (one through four) all were left handed pitchers. I remember that's going to wreak havoc on most teams that can't hit LHP well.
    Left handed pitchers are a different animal all together, their pitches come at you from all sorts of funky angles and most hitters are not used to see all LHP starters in a three game weekend series for instance.
    As a righty I hated to face any left handed pitcher with a nasty curve, I can relate.
    What's funny about that opening day Mariner pitching staff was four of the five rotation guys were left handed, and five of the six relievers were right handed.

    It's a good thing manager Scott Servais isn't a dickhead, if the opposing manager stacked his lineup with his bench players that could hit LHP well Servais could yank the starter in the third inning and go to a bullpen by committee featuring all of his right handed relievers.

    But Servais isn't a dickhead, he's actually a good manager.
    Know why I think he's been successful with the M's lately?
    Because he's a former catcher, and time has proven almost all former catchers make for good bench managers.
    Because they know pitching, the catcher (not the shortstop) is most teams field general.
    They need to know what batters hit what pitch well, they need to be two, three pitches ahead of every pitch, what to call for if for instance a count gets to 1 and 2 on or batter, or what to call for on a full count...
    They need to know there to position each of his fielders, and on and on.

    Catchers are goofy though.
    I know, I was a scholastic catcher for years.
    Yogi was the goofiest.

    Here's one that I didn't see coming up Broadway.
    If you bet the Detroit Tigers each and every game so far you'd be up +1257 dollars.
    That's a case of a collection of unheard of but talented ball players overachieving. Just my guess.
    Good on Detroit, that's a good baseball city, good for them.
    Now if the Pirates can get their shit together.

    Not for nothing, the Diamondbacks are the biggest money burners I've seen in over a decade.
    Minus 31 units for a 162 game season is not just wrong, it's wrong on a whole different level.

    Final point for all of us with short term memory.
    Yes the chalk has been crushing it the past week or so, the heavy -200 favorites have been cashing fast and furious lately, but aren't we forgetting about opening week in April when ten out of eleven -200 favorites, that's right the -200 favorites went 1 and 10 outright first weekend in April that destroyed most bettors bankroll.

    If you were on this current heater the chalk just went on I bet you still haven't recovered from that carnage back in April
    Good stuff. I'm far less analytical but truly appreciate the work you do. The -127 is an incredible average number for the best team in baseball. The SF Giants are also the #1 cover in baseball when it comes to the runline and I have been playing that religiously. 63% cover rate. Love the Tiger stuff too. They have played much tougher than I ever imagined they could this year. I'm a Tigers fan... grew up in Detroit.

  19. #19
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Players with the least amount of stars continue to win I don’t know one player on that team never heard of them

  20. #20
    jackpot269
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I prefer to keep it simple and continue to fade teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs whom are both currently on 11 game losing streaks. It's been a free money ride and you don't even need to cap the games.

    Just pay the juice and auto fade play until it pops..

    Streaks end but you ride em until they pop. You can win money that way betting MLB losing teams as well as winning teams.
    Baltimore Orioles now at 14 in a row!! Great fade!!

  21. #21
    texhooper
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    I missed this original post. Good stuff

  22. #22
    Runeblade
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    Thank you for that analysis sir.

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