Originally posted on 07/10/2019:

Winning 10 games in the NFL is very hard.

Bears have all the signs for a regression. First, their defense played lights out, with lots of turnovers. Playing defense at that kind of level is very hard to sustain and it's bound to regress. Especially when you lose two vital starters, and two coverage players to that.
For the second part, we have Mitchell Trubisky. He was one of the worst in the league when it comes to turnover-worthy plays, and his accuracy is bad even when given a clean pocket. He made most of his thunder on scripted plays and then leaned on the defense. He brings value with his legs though, but the game scripts might not be as pleasant the upcoming season.
I believed very much in the Bears entering last season as I went hard on the Bears over 294 points, Bears as division winners, Nagy as COTY and also Bears+9 in the opener. But this is regression time for them, even if the defense is a top 5 defense it could still not be enough. And the public is high on them after last season.

Just look at the Jaguars the year after winning 10 games. Were you saying "show me the 11 losses" for the Jaguars before last season? Jaguars still had a very good defense, but not at that elite level the year before.
Bears also have the worst QB in that division. They won in spite of Trubisky, who produced as much as he did because of Matt Nagy. Trubisky needs to take a step forward though because he had so much going for him in 2018:
He had the least amount of drops of all starting QBs, he had a clean pocket on over 70% of his dropbacks, and his many turnover-worthy plays weren't converted into interceptions. Trubisky's stats beg for regression, and it won't help when you perhaps don't have the very best defense in the NFL anymore to lean on.

After winning 12 games, the bookies won't set a low number on a team.