Originally posted on 05/16/2019:

UFC Fight Night best bets: Dos Anjos vs. Lee


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The UFC heads to Rochester, New York, on Saturday for a fight card primarily showcasing fresh faces.


The main event, however, offers two established veterans with lightweight experience now competing at welterweight in the hopes of positioning themselves in the title hunt. The betting market is currently torn.
Welterweight matchup: No. 3 Rafael dos Anjos (-115) vs. Kevin Lee (-105)

Tale Of The Tape

RAFAEL DOS ANJOS KEVIN LEE
Last fight weight class Welterweight Lightweight
Current age 34 26
Height (in) 68 69
Reach (in) 71 77
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Analyzed minutes 344 169
Standup striking offense
Career knockdown ratio
(Scored : Received)		 5:1 0:2
Distance knockdown rate 1.3% 0.0%
Head jab accuracy 26% 28%
Head power accuracy 29% 24%
Total standup strike ratio 0.8 1.2
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 75% 63%
Distance knockdown
defense ("Chin")		 100% 99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts/minute
(Standing/clinch)		 0.45 0.74
Takedown accuracy 40% 44%
Advances per
takedown/top control		 0.8 1.3
Opponent takedown attempts 95 31
Takedown defense 59% 81%
Share of total ground
time in control		 63% 92%
Submission attempts
per trip to ground		 0.19 0.27
On the traditional tale of the tape, Lee has a substantial edge in reach and youth over the southpaw, dos Anjos. That size, along with Lee's volume pressure, will be critical to keep an occasionally hesitant striker on the defensive. Dos Anjos is still a dangerous veteran, but he will be outsized on fight night against a larger frame maintaining more weight for the first time. Lee's muscle mass at lightweight was a strength and a liability, showing that a dominant fighter cannot win a five-round fight if his cardio doesn't keep up. That factor is a wild card here, but, if anything, Lee's weight cut should not be as brutal as in the past with 15 extra pounds to work with.


Lee has also excelled in one particular metric: ground control. His wrestling has been dominant, and he has worked his way to back mount more than most fighters in any division. That position can finish fights by offering multiple attempts at a rear-naked choke, or it will at least solidly win the round. He would be wise to test the fairly average takedown defense of dos Anjos early and often. And with a massive reach differential, Lee could change levels to set up his entrances.


E+ recommends: Lee ML at pick 'em or underdog prices
Other fight card value

There aren't a lot of matchups with sufficient data on this fight card to work with, but one does stick out. Charles Oliveira and Nik Lentz have combined for roughly seven hours of active UFC Octagon time. We generally know what we're getting from both men.


Oliveira is a finisher who, while still in his 20s, owns the UFC record for the most Performance of the Night bonuses. He also has three Submission of the Night bonuses and has taken his last seven victories by way of submission. In fact, he won one of those submission bonuses, on top of a Fight of the Night bonus, against Lentz. This will be the third time they've met.


Though Lentz has proven to be an underrated grinder, his wrestling strength could get him into a lot of trouble against a rangy choke master like Oliveira.



E+ recommends: Oliveira ML -365