1. #1
    Hman
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    UFC Fight Night best bets: Dos Anjos vs. Lee 👊

    UFC Fight Night best bets: Dos Anjos vs. Lee


    ESPN INSIDER ($ MATERIAL)


    The UFC heads to Rochester, New York, on Saturday for a fight card primarily showcasing fresh faces.


    The main event, however, offers two established veterans with lightweight experience now competing at welterweight in the hopes of positioning themselves in the title hunt. The betting market is currently torn.

    Welterweight matchup: No. 3 Rafael dos Anjos (-115) vs. Kevin Lee (-105)

    Tale Of The Tape

    RAFAEL DOS ANJOS KEVIN LEE
    Last fight weight class Welterweight Lightweight
    Current age 34 26
    Height (in) 68 69
    Reach (in) 71 77
    Stance Southpaw Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 344 169
    Standup striking offense
    Career knockdown ratio
    (Scored : Received)
    5:1 0:2
    Distance knockdown rate 1.3% 0.0%
    Head jab accuracy 26% 28%
    Head power accuracy 29% 24%
    Total standup strike ratio 0.8 1.2
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 75% 63%
    Distance knockdown
    defense ("Chin")
    100% 99%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts/minute
    (Standing/clinch)
    0.45 0.74
    Takedown accuracy 40% 44%
    Advances per
    takedown/top control
    0.8 1.3
    Opponent takedown attempts 95 31
    Takedown defense 59% 81%
    Share of total ground
    time in control
    63% 92%
    Submission attempts
    per trip to ground
    0.19 0.27
    On the traditional tale of the tape, Lee has a substantial edge in reach and youth over the southpaw, dos Anjos. That size, along with Lee's volume pressure, will be critical to keep an occasionally hesitant striker on the defensive. Dos Anjos is still a dangerous veteran, but he will be outsized on fight night against a larger frame maintaining more weight for the first time. Lee's muscle mass at lightweight was a strength and a liability, showing that a dominant fighter cannot win a five-round fight if his cardio doesn't keep up. That factor is a wild card here, but, if anything, Lee's weight cut should not be as brutal as in the past with 15 extra pounds to work with.


    Lee has also excelled in one particular metric: ground control. His wrestling has been dominant, and he has worked his way to back mount more than most fighters in any division. That position can finish fights by offering multiple attempts at a rear-naked choke, or it will at least solidly win the round. He would be wise to test the fairly average takedown defense of dos Anjos early and often. And with a massive reach differential, Lee could change levels to set up his entrances.


    E+ recommends: Lee ML at pick 'em or underdog prices

    Other fight card value

    There aren't a lot of matchups with sufficient data on this fight card to work with, but one does stick out. Charles Oliveira and Nik Lentz have combined for roughly seven hours of active UFC Octagon time. We generally know what we're getting from both men.


    Oliveira is a finisher who, while still in his 20s, owns the UFC record for the most Performance of the Night bonuses. He also has three Submission of the Night bonuses and has taken his last seven victories by way of submission. In fact, he won one of those submission bonuses, on top of a Fight of the Night bonus, against Lentz. This will be the third time they've met.


    Though Lentz has proven to be an underrated grinder, his wrestling strength could get him into a lot of trouble against a rangy choke master like Oliveira.



    E+ recommends: Oliveira ML -365
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: MadTiger

  2. #2
    PaperTrail07
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    The Carney is a tough bastard and these guys have a history----more ballzs than me laying -365 GL

  3. #3
    BIGDAY
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    Lentz a MN Wraslter.


  4. #4
    BIGDAY
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    Kevin Lee a good bet. Hope we continue to see better numbers.

  5. #5
    jjgold
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Kevin Lee a good bet. Hope we continue to see better numbers.

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