[newguy]

Originally posted on 12/31/2016:

I have plenty of evidence that it can be sharp money. Plenty, from several metrics including a market beating forecast of Alabama only winning by 8 points (note the movement towards my line.)

My non predictive public gauge has Bama by 10.

Did you think the line would grow?

I don't think you guys understand what "sharp money" is and what drives those "sharp" decision makers.

When you talk about right and wrong side, understand that there are many ways to handicap and different programs can be on different sides and still be successful.

And remember, your interpretation of "sharp money" as well as actual "sharp forecasts" don't always win the bet.

That said, ESPN said there was absolutely nobody on Washington, as the line dropped, while not mentioning the line at all.

They went on to mention the Ohio St line and how it's dropped.

This may bode well for Bama.

I thought line was too high as well. I agree with the public gauge of around 10.

I also agree I don't know what drives all sharp money but seems to me that line sat at 14 for a long time. Everyone I talked to said it was too high. If I'm sharp and think wash is right side nothing was there to tell me that line would go above 14 and I live in SEC country. No metrics, no fans, no gauges I saw. So when line drops its my thought it can't be smart money dropping it. You would be an idiot to have not taken wash at the 14.


When I saw it drop to 13.5 I felt like it was a balloon. Let's see how market reacts. Drive some more money on the game. Maybe that's what it was and that's what dropped it further "dumb money saying shit I missed 14 need 13.5 buying to 14" but I can't see that drop being smart. Not saying it won't win. Most people thought right line was 10 so maybe it was just a market correction and maybe wash wins this outright ( just hit td to go up).