Originally posted on 12/29/2012:

Not that I don't like MMA. It's just that there's too much stuff in it and it confuses and frightens me.

This is a slow period for boxing, but there is one very interesting development. Takashi Uchiyama was listed at as much as a -1500 favorite vs. Bryan Vasquez. The line was up for a while and a few days ago it abruptly moved to -475. Then -350. At the moment, -420. What?

I've watched Vasquez's last fight and a few clips of others. He's a good fighter but he has limited power, both to the eye and by his record (29 wins, 15 KOs). His work rate is fine, but nothing overwhelming. It doesn't look like he could win just by outworking Uchiyama. Add to that the fact that Uchiyama is not particularly easy to hit. If he doesn’t like what’s going on, he’ll put up a tight, high guard and step back, then reengage on his terms. But even using this tactic, he winds up the aggressor with the more powerful shots. It’s a hell of a puzzle to solve with no power of your own.

Vasquez’s last fight was sloppy and dirty on both sides, so it is hard to tell for sure, but he looks to be on about the same level as Uchiyama in terms of general boxing skills. Both have good amateur backgrounds.

A lot of footage is available on Uchiyama. I'd recommend it just for entertainment value. You might not expect a Japanese guy to be an excellent athlete and a brutal knockout artist, but he is both. He's also 5'7 1/2" while Vasquez is 5'5". He has a massive power advantage, is the bigger man and perhaps marginally the better athlete.

I saw some analysis, specifically Al Bernstein's, suggesting that it will be a close fight just based on the general quality of the fighters. Well, we know that Uchiyama is a beast. He's looked good against good fighters, he's the Ring's number 1 at Jr. Lightweight and so forth. Vasquez is making his first venture to that level and has not looked particularly great getting there. Very good yes, great no. Moreover, even if Vasquez is actually is as good as he might be, this is not a measurement of general quality, but a fight in which he still has major disadvantages. What is his path to victory? He is a straightforward but fit and agile fighter with no particular gifts compared to others at this level. He's not a super slickster like Miguel Vasquez or a guy with some spectacular punches like Danny Garcia. Those are the kinds of things that make upsets. I guess, he can be a bit rough, but Uchiyama is tough and has a cool disposition, so I don’t see him losing his mind over a couple fouls or anything. So Vasquez doesn't really have any particular tool to surprise or maneuver his way to a win over someone with significant advantages.

Added to that the fight will be taking place in Japan, where boxing is big and Uchiyama seems to be a pretty popular, money making fighter. Vasquez is from Costa Rica and two fights ago, he was fighting in a place called Pepper's Night Club. He might not be a club level fighter in terms of ability, but if we're looking for something shady in terms of a decision, it seems like anything like that should benefit Uchiyama.

Why the huge line move? I searched for stories on Uchiyama in English and Japanese (with google translations) and saw nothing other than that he is training hard and wants a knock out. Uchiyama is coming off a technical draw against Michael Ferenas (who just gave Gamboa a good fight). It looked like it was going to be a good fight, but it was a legitimate stoppage and I didn't see anything to diminish Uchiyama. Uchiyama sustained a bad cut by butt, but it wasn't something that should be a big problem now. Ferenas was giving him problems with elusive movement, but Uchiyama adjusted by round 2, going to the body with big power shots and taking something off the headshots and scoring with them. Still looked like a tough fight, but Uchiyama probably would have won and, more importanlty, Vasquez cannot move quite like Ferenas was and doesn’t present as much of an offensive threat.

Uchiyama might get the KO and it might turn out that Vasquez just isn’t at this level. I think it’s more likely that Vasquez will put in a nice showing, but there’s not really any way for him to win without something unusual happening.

Ten dollars to win two dollars and thirty-eight cents. Also a good parlay filler.