[Boxscout]

Not that I don't like MMA. It's just that there's too much stuff in it and it confuses and frightens me.

This is a slow period for boxing, but there is one very interesting development. Takashi Uchiyama was listed at as much as a -1500 favorite vs. Bryan Vasquez. The line was up for a while and a few days ago it abruptly moved to -475. Then -350. At the moment, -420. What?

I've watched Vasquez's last fight and a few clips of others. He's a good fighter but he has limited power, both to the eye and by his record (29 wins, 15 KOs). His work rate is fine, but nothing overwhelming. It doesn't look like he could win just by outworking Uchiyama. Add to that the fact that Uchiyama is not particularly easy to hit. If he doesn’t like what’s going on, he’ll put up a tight, high guard and step back, then reengage on his terms. But even using this tactic, he winds up the aggressor with the more powerful shots. It’s a hell of a puzzle to solve with no power of your own.

Vasquez’s last fight was sloppy and dirty on both sides, so it is hard to tell for sure, but he looks to be on about the same level as Uchiyama in terms of general boxing skills. Both have good amateur backgrounds.

A lot of footage is available on Uchiyama. I'd recommend it just for entertainment value. You might not expect a Japanese guy to be an excellent athlete and a brutal knockout artist, but he is both. He's also 5'7 1/2" while Vasquez is 5'5". He has a massive power advantage, is the bigger man and perhaps marginally the better athlete.

I saw some analysis, specifically Al Bernstein's, suggesting that it will be a close fight just based on the general quality of the fighters. Well, we know that Uchiyama is a beast. He's looked good against good fighters, he's the Ring's number 1 at Jr. Lightweight and so forth. Vasquez is making his first venture to that level and has not looked particularly great getting there. Very good yes, great no. Moreover, even if Vasquez is actually is as good as he might be, this is not a measurement of general quality, but a fight in which he still has major disadvantages. What is his path to victory? He is a straightforward but fit and agile fighter with no particular gifts compared to others at this level. He's not a super slickster like Miguel Vasquez or a guy with some spectacular punches like Danny Garcia. Those are the kinds of things that make upsets. I guess, he can be a bit rough, but Uchiyama is tough and has a cool disposition, so I don’t see him losing his mind over a couple fouls or anything. So Vasquez doesn't really have any particular tool to surprise or maneuver his way to a win over someone with significant advantages.

Added to that the fight will be taking place in Japan, where boxing is big and Uchiyama seems to be a pretty popular, money making fighter. Vasquez is from Costa Rica and two fights ago, he was fighting in a place called Pepper's Night Club. He might not be a club level fighter in terms of ability, but if we're looking for something shady in terms of a decision, it seems like anything like that should benefit Uchiyama.

Why the huge line move? I searched for stories on Uchiyama in English and Japanese (with google translations) and saw nothing other than that he is training hard and wants a knock out. Uchiyama is coming off a technical draw against Michael Ferenas (who just gave Gamboa a good fight). It looked like it was going to be a good fight, but it was a legitimate stoppage and I didn't see anything to diminish Uchiyama. Uchiyama sustained a bad cut by butt, but it wasn't something that should be a big problem now. Ferenas was giving him problems with elusive movement, but Uchiyama adjusted by round 2, going to the body with big power shots and taking something off the headshots and scoring with them. Still looked like a tough fight, but Uchiyama probably would have won and, more importanlty, Vasquez cannot move quite like Ferenas was and doesn’t present as much of an offensive threat.

Uchiyama might get the KO and it might turn out that Vasquez just isn’t at this level. I think it’s more likely that Vasquez will put in a nice showing, but there’s not really any way for him to win without something unusual happening.

Ten dollars to win two dollars and thirty-eight cents. Also a good parlay filler.

[BIGDAY]

Guy is a boxing sharp. Nice post.

[Vaughany]

Guy is betting crazy dollarz...got ballz for sure

[Boxscout]

Thanks Bigday. Doing these seems to help clarify my thinking, so if at least a couple people like them I’ll do more. I’ve bet on boxing casually in the past and decided to really go all out a few months ago with pretty good results, so hopefully that continues and I can can live up to the recommendation.


Vaughany:I hate when people posture as “ballers,” even when it is justified, so I’m not trying to brag. I’m not going to even mention the fact that I’ve been comped enough to pay for entire sandwiches at the LVH, or include the corned beef in my winnings.

Uchiyama might get the KO and it might turn out that Vasquez just isn’t at this level. I think it’s more likely that Vasquez will put in a nice showing, but there’s not really any way for him to win without something unusual happening.

Bad Left Hook:

Takashi Uchiyama further stamped his claim as the best super featherweight in the world when he broke down Bryan Vasquez through 8 rounds. Vasquez, a 25 year old interim WBA champion, fought well enough to show that sometimes sanctioning bodies do get it right when it comes to appointing mandatory challengers. Vasquez was both busy and clever but was simply out gunned by the ever dangerous Uchiyama.

Some lines are up for a similar matchup between Carl Frampton and Kiko Martinez. Full write up in a bit, but it's a similar story

[JoshB]

welcome to sbr.

i went ahead & threw Uchiyama in a $100 parlay, just seemed like his power & size would be too much. unfortunatley i also included tepparith kokietgym in a $200 dollar parlay & he ended up getting getting ktfo.

i checked out some footage of his opponent before placing the bet & the guy looked like straight up garbage, very sloppy, uncoordinated looking..just an all round awful fighter, but he came to fight last night & ko'd my guy.

i just kind of startled to get my feet wet with japanese boxing & have had mixed results so far, looks like i still have a lot to learn about these little guys.

[Vaughany]

haha defacto!

[Boxscout]

Thanks Josh. I didn't look much at the other ones last night, except enough to decide to not bet on Miyazaki, who won. But they seem to put more lines up for fights in Japan and the UK, so I guess I'm going to become a fan of boxing in Japan and the UK.

This one is a ways off, but I usually just watch all I can whenever they first put the line up. Another parlay filler I'm using is Danny Geale (opened -350, now -370) vs. Anthony Mundine. I'll try to do a full write up of that as well, since I'm not seeing anything else interesting, but I did my first analysis on it a while ago. Just mentioning it for now.

Carl Frampton vs. Kiko Martinez (Feb. 9th)

I watched Frampton’s dismantling of Steve Molitor, a 2 time title holder and veteran of 10 title fights, side by side with Kiko surmounting fringe contender, Arsen Martirosyan and wanted to go all in on Frampton right away. While Kiko’s better than he looks at a glance, he still does not have the tools to overcome Frampton.

Frampton is a swarm of hornets controlled by the mind of a patient, methodical super villain. I mean that every part of his body is much busier than a guy like Kiko’s. He punches well and fairly often with both hands with a variety of punches to the head and body and uses combinations, he feints, varies range, his feet never stop moving, he circles, he is in and out, his head is always moving, he shifts his shoulders and he’s moving from the hips. Yes, this is a white guy.

However, he is pretty patient offensively and doesn’t jab all that much. He’s more interested in looking to land big punches and show his power than he is in overwhelming with volume for its own sake. He looks calm in the ring and he’s there to just take you apart, as per his job requirements. All of the movement is about constantly finding room and creating ways to achieve that end. If you gain an advantage, it will be momentary as he has good reflexes and defensive skills. The swarm will break up and reform in a new shape around your weak points.

The more I watched Kiko, the more respect I gained for him. He beats guys on his level by being a little bit tougher, a little bit more skilled and significantly smarter. His best shots are body shots, and a nice jab that hurts, but is not really a high volume, match controlling punch. I would not be surprised if he outjabbed Frampton, but we’re not talking about a scenario where Frampton is eating 12 jabs a round and Kiko is controlling the distance. More like, Kiko gets some nice jabs in here and there, while Frampton just uses his to set up his bigger punches. Kiko goes to the body early and often and this played a big role in breaking down Martirosian and Jason Booth in two of his last 3. He positions himself well.

However, Kiko leaves a lot of openings and Martirosyan hit him hard plenty of times. There is no way for him to fix this. Frampton will be landing big shots throughout the fight and is the bigger puncher. Kiko’s best chance is to just go to the body as usual and hope Frampton breaks down and shows a lack of heart and I believe that is what Kiko will attempt to do. But he is going to leave himself open to many headshots, even if he is able to get his body work in, which is not a certainty. So if he survives the head shots, if he lands regularly on Frampton, if Frampton has heretofore unknown lack of heart, if, if, if... Can Kiko really win by putting in long term body work on the constantly moving Frampton, as Frampton blasts at his head?

Kiko is a guy who will stand there and position his feet well and pick openings. Frampton is a guy who will position his feet well, move them side to side, in and out, diagonally and, as I said, move his head and hips all over the place to find openings and to close openings for his opponent. All with superior athleticism, balance and speed. This isn’t work that can be counted, like punches, but it is work and Frampton is creating and closing openings at like twice the rate that Kiko does.

Frampton sometimes appears open to a big counter coming in, but there is only room for one punch. Kiko does not have one punch power and probably isn’t quick enough to pounce on these opportunities anyway.

All of that amounts to this:I have questions about Frampton as a future world title contender, but those questions are barely relevant to a match against a solid euro-level fighter, like Kiko who has zero discernable advantages. Will Cam Newton be a top pro? That didn’t matter when he was playing Ole’ Miss. Kiko is tough and makes the most of his ability, but Frampton is just on another level, and potentially will even be on a level above that.

Frampton is an emerging star in Northern Ireland, where the fight will be held in front of about 11,000 rabid fans, even though this is just his 16th fight. That means that there is lots and lots of money to be made with Frampton in the future.

Kiko has pretty blatantly ducked Frampton at least twice before this match.

Opened at -530, though you can get better if you do not live in Saudi Arabia, North Korea or The U.S. I’m not good at predicting line movements. One the one hand, I think Kiko’s actual chance of winning is 1/10 or worse. Right now, books are saying Kiko has more of a chance in this fight than Zab does against Garcia, which is nuts. On the other hand, Kiko has a name and a title in Europe, while Frampton is an up and comer (even though Kiko is only a year older) and if you just read an article about the match it might look like there was value on the defending titlist at +350. Usually the odds on the favorite improve as the fight nears. I filled in some parlays with this for now just to make sure I got some of it and will hope for the price to improve.

[JoshB]

i'd really like to see the frampton/hilares fight, i heard he had some trouble in that one. i haven't found a video yet though.he does seem talented, and looks like a decent athlete too.

geale seems like a good wager, i watched like 2/3rds of his first fight with mundine, it seemed like he won more rounds from what i saw despite getting knocked down & losing the decision. it was close though.

mundine is a passive fighter, he lets himself get backed up to the ropes a lot & lets his opponents get off with combo's while he tries to defend & land counters. maybe he got away with it last time but this time if he fight's too passively they will give it to geale imo cause he's the one with all the momentum after dethroning sturm.

[Boxscout]

Yeah, Frampton stuff is tough to find for some reason, but I saw enough to convince me. (Molitor, Kris Hughes and Gavin Reid). One thing I didn't mention is how fast he's improving which, to me, indicates he has heart because he must work incredibly hard and be very focused. I don't think that guy takes a dozen Kiko body shots and just decides he'd rather give up than become a millionaire and a huge star in his country.

We're on the same page with Mundine. The first fight was just about his best case scenario. He got a knockdown. He was also slicker and a notch quicker than Geale. He won by SD, with some viewers believing he won and some believing Geale won. Well, Mundine is slowing down. His work rate is even lower and his reflexes are a bit diminished. He doesn't look shot to me, but he has been in with the likes of Bronco McKart, while Geale has climbed to the top of the division

Geale has gotten much better and is more focused and accurate with his high work rate, instead of just kind of flailing away like he did in the first fight. So we know with almost complete certainty that 1) Geale will work as much as in the first fight. 2)His work will be significantly more effective) 3)Mundine will work even less. It's less certain, but still highly likely that Mundine's work will be less effective, even if it's only because Geale is more polished and harder to hit. I think we're getting a break on the price because of the first result, but it's actually a nice piece of evidence in favor of Geale.

Finally, though I think Mundine is more of a household name in Australia, this is his last hurrah at age 37. Geale is a guy with a real chance to be the true middleweight champion of the world. That would be like a once in a lifetime thing for an Australian fan. On top of that, he has several really big money fights down the road for not only his promoter and sanctioning body, but for the promoters of the other top MWs in a fairly deep glamour division. Let's say, somehow, it is close again. We KNOW Geal is going to be coming forward and we know he is going to throw literally about twice as much. This is they style that got him a decision against Sturm in Germany. You're telling me, Mundine is going to get a decision in those circumstances? The Iron Sheik had as much chance of beating Hulk Hogan. I mean, I'm a pretty honest guy and I would feel all that pressure if I was a judge for sure. The scumbags who actually do the judging are going to have no problem giving every close round to Geale just on work and aggression, even if the aggression is ineffective.

I'm not saying it's a total lock, but Mundine will have to win convincingly, perhaps with 2 knockdowns. And even then, they might just rob him anyway.

[Joeey]

hmm, interesting fight and although Geale should win I dont see it is a parlay option at all.

Mundine has speed on Geale, plus knows Geale will try to outwork him. The judges will be interesting, promotion/sanctioning body would be on Geale's side, location where Mundine has pull is on that side.

I like Geale, but dont like the odds in what is a dangerous fight for him. If Mundine shows up in somewhat vintage form, he can win this. He is just so hard to read as he fights stiffs so often.

[Boxscout]

I agree with one thing Joeey, which is that the hardest thing was to get a read on Mundine when he was fighting such low caliber guys. I do think he has something left, it's just a terrible match up for him.

Anyway, finally a dog. Fernando Guerrero +550 vs. Kid Chocolate Quillin.

I really, really like Quillen. I am just taken aback by this line. Fernando Guerrero was an up and coming star until he got KOed by a competent journeyman. But shit happens. He is still a talented guy and he’s looked fine since then. Guerrero has a great amateur background, with an amateur national title, while Quillen has eight fights before going pro and I think they might be moving him along a hair too quickly.

We saw Hassan N'Dam N'Jikam largely outbox Quillen, but lose on the basis of six (!) knockdowns. Guerrero does not have HNN’s great speed and in and out movement, but he is a technically sound southpaw who is conscious of range and who uses nice footwork inside and to circle. He doesn’t work like HNN, but that could be a good thing. He should still easily outwork Quillen, but with a few less pitter patter punches and that means a few fewer opportunities to be caught. In Guerrero’s last fight, Pauli Malignaggi observed how well Guerrero protects himself from a counter by an orthodox boxer by circling away with the follow through of his punches. Quillen will probably get him with a left hook or a bull rush anyway, but maybe not.

I don’t believe that trainers can turn water into wine, but Guerrero has hooked up with Virgil Hunter, who emphasises smart fighting, good defence and will give Guerrero a game plan to go out and get a W. There’s going to be no concern about looking good or winning fans. Any kind of win is just huge for Guerrero here. This is the best case scenario for betting against Quillen because he is an opportunist, and someone with Guerrero's talent, focused on denying him opportunities and winning rounds has a real chance.

Of course, the most likely outcome is Quillen by KO. Guererro has been knocked down in other fights and Quillen is a huge puncher. But I don’t think it’s a certainty, and with no KO I might make Guererro a modest favorite. As a bit of a bonus, Guerrero has some power of his own. Significantly more power than Quillen has ever dealt with. At the very least, Quillen might not be able to charge forward with total impunity when the mood strikes him, as he has in other fights.

I would like this play quite a lot if there were not serious robbery concerns. I said I like Quillen. Betting head against heart on this one. Well, everybody else likes him too. He’s a very big star in the making. I think, stylistically, if Guerrero dictates, it will be hard to find rounds for Quillen because it’s not like he rushes forward for long periods or throws tons of punches. He might even lack the savvy to do things like steal rounds at the end. If we’re looking at judges who are honest () or who are just looking to fudge close rounds to Quillen we might be OK. If we’re dealing with judges who have their cards filled out already, we’ll just have to suck it.

[Mercersux]

Feeling anything on FNF for tonight?

[flickavic]

Feeling anything on FNF for tonight?

Still waiting on the odds for FNF...

[Grits n' Gravy]

You guys are way into the game. I know of 2 fighters mentioned in thread and thought I really followed the sport. Quillen should win but decent value on Guerrero in the event of upset.

Expect to hear something official from Floyd's camp soon about the 1st fight for him in May. Needs to be a smaller guy like Guerrero. Floyd was slightly slower vs Cotto and you don't get faster as you age. He's not working like he usually does. The beef between him and 50cent is real and has him deviating from his routines out of fear. He'll still win but look vulnerable in doing so.

[v1y]

in the same day as uchiyama winning, k-1 fighter kyotaro suffered his first pro boxing loss in brutal fashion:

[DeFactoCrippler]

This one is a ways off, but I usually just watch all I can whenever they first put the line up. Another parlay filler I'm using is Danny Geale (opened -350, now -370) vs. Anthony Mundine.

Agree here. Been looking at this one for a while now. You can find a lot better than -370 if you look around.

Fock I'll put it a stright bet on that shit. parlay are for armenians

[Mercersux]

in the same day as uchiyama winning, k-1 fighter kyotaro suffered his first pro boxing loss in brutal fashion:

Why did the stupid ref even let the fight continue after the first knockdown. It was clear as day the Kyotaro had no idea what planet he was on after getting up. Just a sitting duck for a brutal k.o.

[Boxscout]

Mercer, looked at the guys in the main event on FNF. Probably just a pass for me. Rances is faster and should be the favorite, as he is, but he is there to be hit and Arash is a better athlete than he looks to be at first glance and he should land plenty and have a shot. Gun to my head, I'd take the Cuban, especially in Miami where Cubans can actually have fans, especially since Arash lacks KO power. But there's too much uncertainty to take him at -250 in my opinion. Should be a fun fight though.

Defacto, Geale did just pop up at -350 at BetOnline. Saw him at -333 at William Hill, but I live behind the Christian Curtain, so I can't bet there. What are you using?

[DeFactoCrippler]

Defacto, Geale did just pop up at -350 at Betonline. Saw him at -333 at William Hill, but I live behind the Christian Curtain, so I can't bet there. What are you using?

Know what you mean. I don't use those euro books either cause im not some brit cigarette who twirls his teacup on his needledick whenever big ben strikes 4.

but with that said he was -300 at bet365 on a 2 way line last time i checked. you can find him at -333 at a few places on a 3 way line.

[Boxscout]

Molina/Williams on FNF. I prefer Williams slightly in the KO race, and think it’s about 50/50 if it goes to the cards. Not a big play, however, as I could only find about a fight and a half of video on each guy and I could easily be missing something.

Both are big time KO artists and there’s a good chance it won’t go the distance. Williams looks to have the more explosive power, while Molina gets his power from a big wind up. I think Molina will do a bit better at blocking punches, while Williams should do better at avoiding them with quickness.

I’ve seen it written that Molina is the busier, more well rounded fighter, but not based on what I’ve seen. It’s no sure thing that Williams gets a just score, but if it goes that far, the jabs might give him an edge. They’ll also help keep Molina off of him.

Another thing to consider, given this is a battle of power punchers, is that Molina just got KOed in 44 seconds by Antonio Demarco, who you might know as the man currently making his way through Adrien Broner’s large intestine. This doesn’t mean he has a bad chin, but it is not a great sign and he could have confidence issues. Williams has been down, but never stopped and took a lot of big shots from Lundy well. Lundy isn’t a huge puncher, but it’s something to go on. So we can reasonably speculate that Williams might have a chin edge.

Williams +240.

Might be some value in under 9.5 rounds at -165. I thought it would be more expensive, but I’m not sure if I’ll bet it or not.

[Boxscout]

Rico Ramos vs. Ronny Rios in a Scooby Doo match.

Pretty high confidence level in this one. There is a lot of stuff to sort through on this fight. Ramos is a talented fighter who has been blown all over the place by the winds of fortune. He was perhaps rushed into a title fight and was losing badly to Shimoda, and then seemed more surprised than anyone after knocking the Chinaman out with a pretty left hook. If the move to the world level with Shimoda was too brisk, Ramos being thrown in with Rigo was an act of ritual sacrifice. Relegated to a San Fernando Valley ballroom, Ramos pulled out an iffy win, vigorously shoe shining a quality opponent in Efrain Esquivias. It’s hard to say what all that adds up to.

Similarly, Rios is popular and unbeaten with a good amateur background. But he bailed himself out of a competitive fight with a 16-6 guy, though a good one in Rodelo, by finding a knock out. Reports are he also benefited from a pretty blatant robbery four fights ago. These guys both look like they are trying to keep their Jenga towers intact long enough to score some nice paydays.

All this is important because the matchup is one that rests a lot of responsibility with unseeing eyes and twisted minds of the judges. Rios will move back at times and is very good at blocking punches. He is accurate with his own punches, and can be selective with them. Plus he goes to the body a lot. Ramos will mix hard shots and kisses. What will the judges make of all that?

Pick is the over. Rios figures to be the more effective puncher, but he has 9 KOs in 19 wins.Rico Ramos is a Nervous Pervis, but I don’t think he lacks heart, he has a good defense and is very fit. Both guys are relatively patient fighters and it’s not going to be a relentless war. Ramos’ hook might be the most dangerous punch in the fight, but he is not a big KO guy. Both will be in shape and highly determined. With the scoring probably in doubt and futures at stake, I don't expect anyone to quit.

Rico Ramos Ronny Rios Over 9.5 Rounds -230.

[Grabaka]

What about Mouton? worth a stab @ +340?

[Boxscout]

I would lean that way. I'm not betting it. I just sort of read the basic stuff and saw a clip of Mouton. Wanted to see if they were wheeling in a stiff for the prospect to beat on, but he seems decent. He looks like too much of a dog to me in terms of quality, but I stylistically, I haven't really looked at it.

[hougigo]

Molina/Williams on FNF. I prefer Williams slightly in the KO race, and think it’s about 50/50 if it goes to the cards. Not a big play, however, as I could only find about a fight and a half of video on each guy and I could easily be missing something.

Both are big time KO artists and there’s a good chance it won’t go the distance. Williams looks to have the more explosive power, while Molina gets his power from a big wind up. I think Molina will do a bit better at blocking punches, while Williams should do better at avoiding them with quickness.

I’ve seen it written that Molina is the busier, more well rounded fighter, but not based on what I’ve seen. It’s no sure thing that Williams gets a just score, but if it goes that far, the jabs might give him an edge. They’ll also help keep Molina off of him.

Another thing to consider, given this is a battle of power punchers, is that Molina just got KOed in 44 seconds by Antonio Demarco, who you might know as the man currently making his way through Adrien Broner’s large intestine. This doesn’t mean he has a bad chin, but it is not a great sign and he could have confidence issues. Williams has been down, but never stopped and took a lot of big shots from Lundy well. Lundy isn’t a huge puncher, but it’s something to go on. So we can reasonably speculate that Williams might have a chin edge.

Williams +240.

Might be some value in under 9.5 rounds at -165. I thought it would be more expensive, but I’m not sure if I’ll bet it or not.

I think the KO was in part of him being a dumbass.
He should have taken a knee instead of leaning on the ropes with his head down, not moving and taking a pounding.... thinking back to it makes me mad at how stupid he was

[rocky mattioli]

Thanks Josh. I didn't look much at the other ones last night, except enough to decide to not bet on Miyazaki, who won. But they seem to put more lines up for fights in Japan and the UK, so I guess I'm going to become a fan of boxing in Japan and the UK.

This one is a ways off, but I usually just watch all I can whenever they first put the line up. Another parlay filler I'm using is Danny Geale (opened -350, now -370) vs. Anthony Mundine. I'll try to do a full write up of that as well, since I'm not seeing anything else interesting, but I did my first analysis on it a while ago. Just mentioning it for now.

Carl Frampton vs. Kiko Martinez (Feb. 9th)

I watched Frampton’s dismantling of Steve Molitor, a 2 time title holder and veteran of 10 title fights, side by side with Kiko surmounting fringe contender, Arsen Martirosyan and wanted to go all in on Frampton right away. While Kiko’s better than he looks at a glance, he still does not have the tools to overcome Frampton.

Frampton is a swarm of hornets controlled by the mind of a patient, methodical super villain. I mean that every part of his body is much busier than a guy like Kiko’s. He punches well and fairly often with both hands with a variety of punches to the head and body and uses combinations, he feints, varies range, his feet never stop moving, he circles, he is in and out, his head is always moving, he shifts his shoulders and he’s moving from the hips. Yes, this is a white guy.

However, he is pretty patient offensively and doesn’t jab all that much. He’s more interested in looking to land big punches and show his power than he is in overwhelming with volume for its own sake. He looks calm in the ring and he’s there to just take you apart, as per his job requirements. All of the movement is about constantly finding room and creating ways to achieve that end. If you gain an advantage, it will be momentary as he has good reflexes and defensive skills. The swarm will break up and reform in a new shape around your weak points.

The more I watched Kiko, the more respect I gained for him. He beats guys on his level by being a little bit tougher, a little bit more skilled and significantly smarter. His best shots are body shots, and a nice jab that hurts, but is not really a high volume, match controlling punch. I would not be surprised if he outjabbed Frampton, but we’re not talking about a scenario where Frampton is eating 12 jabs a round and Kiko is controlling the distance. More like, Kiko gets some nice jabs in here and there, while Frampton just uses his to set up his bigger punches. Kiko goes to the body early and often and this played a big role in breaking down Martirosian and Jason Booth in two of his last 3. He positions himself well.

However, Kiko leaves a lot of openings and Martirosyan hit him hard plenty of times. There is no way for him to fix this. Frampton will be landing big shots throughout the fight and is the bigger puncher. Kiko’s best chance is to just go to the body as usual and hope Frampton breaks down and shows a lack of heart and I believe that is what Kiko will attempt to do. But he is going to leave himself open to many headshots, even if he is able to get his body work in, which is not a certainty. So if he survives the head shots, if he lands regularly on Frampton, if Frampton has heretofore unknown lack of heart, if, if, if... Can Kiko really win by putting in long term body work on the constantly moving Frampton, as Frampton blasts at his head?

Kiko is a guy who will stand there and position his feet well and pick openings. Frampton is a guy who will position his feet well, move them side to side, in and out, diagonally and, as I said, move his head and hips all over the place to find openings and to close openings for his opponent. All with superior athleticism, balance and speed. This isn’t work that can be counted, like punches, but it is work and Frampton is creating and closing openings at like twice the rate that Kiko does.

Frampton sometimes appears open to a big counter coming in, but there is only room for one punch. Kiko does not have one punch power and probably isn’t quick enough to pounce on these opportunities anyway.

All of that amounts to this:I have questions about Frampton as a future world title contender, but those questions are barely relevant to a match against a solid euro-level fighter, like Kiko who has zero discernable advantages. Will Cam Newton be a top pro? That didn’t matter when he was playing Ole’ Miss. Kiko is tough and makes the most of his ability, but Frampton is just on another level, and potentially will even be on a level above that.

Frampton is an emerging star in Northern Ireland, where the fight will be held in front of about 11,000 rabid fans, even though this is just his 16th fight. That means that there is lots and lots of money to be made with Frampton in the future.

Kiko has pretty blatantly ducked Frampton at least twice before this match.

Opened at -530, though you can get better if you do not live in Saudi Arabia, North Korea or The U.S. I’m not good at predicting line movements. One the one hand, I think Kiko’s actual chance of winning is 1/10 or worse. Right now, books are saying Kiko has more of a chance in this fight than Zab does against Garcia, which is nuts. On the other hand, Kiko has a name and a title in Europe, while Frampton is an up and comer (even though Kiko is only a year older) and if you just read an article about the match it might look like there was value on the defending titlist at +350. Usually the odds on the favorite improve as the fight nears. I filled in some parlays with this for now just to make sure I got some of it and will hope for the price to improve.

after seeing judah win a dubious decision over matthysse a few years back in jersey,i see no reason not to look at him getting +525 at home vs a defensively ??? garcia..won`t cost much for a tickle...

[Crassus]

Thoughts on Judah at +525?

[Boxscout]

I don't hate it. I thought there might be value on Danny in this fight because so many fans rate him lowly and Max Kellerman doesn't understand that non-blacks can be good athletes. But the books either like Danny too, or think Zab is shot. For me it's a pass, but I think it's a good price if you like Zab and the improvements he's made in his life and his training.

[Crassus]

I don't hate it. I thought there might be value on Danny in this fight because so many fans rate him lowly and Max Kellerman doesn't understand that non-blacks can be good athletes. But the books either like Danny too, or think Zab is shot. For me it's a pass, but I think it's a good price if you like Zab and the improvements he's made in his life and his training.

Yeah it's a tough call. I definitely think that Zab's days of being a truly elite fighter are over. I do like how he's changed up his training and lifestyle, and I liked how he looked against Vernon Paris. I think this is a good test for Garcia because Judah will probably be the slickest boxer he's faced yet and if he fights like how he fought Khan I think he'll get outboxed by a more conservative Judah.

I think I'll play Judah for 2U, I like him a lot against Garcia. It'll be a really fun fight though no doubt about it.

[Boxscout]

I think there's still some value in Frankie Gavin vs. Jason Welborn, which you can get at around -1800.

Yes, 95%+ chance. But this isn't Strikeforce, it is a Frank Warren promoted boxing match between Britain's only world amateur champion and a guy who is a part time security guard. Some places it is -5000 and Pinnacle is offering Welborn at +1200.

[Boxscout]

Gavin won easily. Those 1-18 shots are tough to get. So, 3-0 (Uchiyama, Rios/Ramos Over, Gavin) on favorites so far, 0-1 on dogs (Danny Williams). What a weird pattern.

Missed a better opening price of -135, but I'm OK taking -160 on Salido and Garcia to go over 9.5. Salido hasn't been knocked out since he was a yoot. He's survived and/or beaten Robert Guerrero, Gamboa and Jaun Manuel Lopez twice. Garcia is not really the type to throw the kitchen sink at him either, especially in the first few rounds. If Mikey gets him, hats off.

Salido could get Garcia as well, but Garcia is -240 now. Plus Garcia is about as well trained as you can be. Salido would have to overwhelm him for the TKO or something... it just doesn't strike me as too likely. And, it could happen after 9.5 as some of Salido's stoppages have.

[Boxscout]

And, of course now the same bet is -125. Goddamned insomnia. Taking a bit more.

Semi-hedging with Salido inside distance at +439. A Salido stoppage in the later rounds is a real possibility, though.

[Boxscout]

Well, going to try a similar bet. Dzinziruk and Vera should go over 9.5 pretty easily. Dzinziruk is a slick boxer and the fav. He doesn't have big KO power and has moved up from JMW to MW, so it will be even harder for him to get a KO. However he survived a KO artist in his last fight, even though the guy showed up 10 pounds overweight.

Vera KOed Andy Lee, but he has only 12 in 21 wins. He's a come forward brawler, but just a solid one. Even if Dzinziruk is past it, he'll have a big skill advantage.

The two fighters have been KOed three times between them. One of them was Sergio, one of them was Kirkland.

Dzinziruk doesn't have the size and power to get Vera out. Vera doesn't have the skill and power to get Dzinziruk out.

You also still have time to get Danny Geale over Anthony Mundine on the 30th at -350. 96%+ I'm parlaying the shit out of that, coupled with Frampton over Kiko Martinez.

[JoshB]

Damn dizzy looked shot. Vera is quite the spoiler. I went ahead & threw matthyse wnning itd in a couple parlays, dallas jr is gonna get caught at some point.

[hougigo]

Damn dizzy looked shot. Vera is quite the spoiler. I went ahead & threw matthyse wnning itd in a couple parlays, dallas jr is gonna get caught at some point.

He will, no doubt about that.
IMO, Lucas will go hard in this fight... and he was landing some killer shots against Ajose in his last fight.... Dallas shouldn't be able to survive the same thing

[Boxscout]

Damn dizzy looked shot. Vera is quite the spoiler. I went ahead & threw matthyse wnning itd in a couple parlays, dallas jr is gonna get caught at some point.

I think that's a pretty smart play. I'm on the over in that one though, some at +170 and some at +195. If you look at the guys who have stuck around vs. Matthysse, they're all black, to be blunt about it. Of course, there's Alexander and Zab. Even Demarcus Corely made it into the 8th. He just has trouble tracking down guys who are fast and who use a lot of movement.

Dallas is fast, tall, uses a long jab, uses movement, has some ability to be negative on the inside, which also gives Matthysse problems. Virgil Hunter is his trainer now, and he'll have him maximizing all of that. Plus, Dallas' dad just died and he's dedicating the fight to him. I don't really put much stock in that kind of stuff, but I guess I'd rather have it working for me than against me. Maybe he gets up from a body shot instead of quitting.

Having said that, I don't mind your bet either. I expect Dallas to potshot and move and nullify for several rounds as Lucas finds his range, times him and cuts of the ring. I think Mattysse will chase him down eventually, but it will be a race to be 7.5 rounds, and I like + money on that race. But as I said, I think he will get him eventually and he's got 12 rounds to do it. So I think there's a very good chance we both cash.