Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
Perhaps, I'm a little novice in my distribution mathematics and maybe your way is more efficient. Anyway, I'd like to find out but from what you stated in the Season Win Totals thread, it's unclear to me how you work out the addition of two binomials. Perhaps, you could enlighten me a little. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that you have an average team with an average schedule (50% neutral field win expectancy) and use your HFA adjustment. So, assuming that there are 8 games for a team with a 60% chance of winning at home and 8 games with a 40% chance of winning on the road and I'm trying to find the odds that the team wins 8 games or more throughout the season, how would I add the two binomials in Excel? Am I supposed to use 1-BINOMDIST(8, 16, 0.6, TRUE) and 1-BINOMDIST(8, 16, 0.4, TRUE)? Or would I use 1-BINOMDIST(4, 8, 0.6, TRUE) and 1-BINOMDIST(4, 8, 0.4, TRUE)? Do I then simply add the probabilities together? Do I average them? What do I do?

Thanks.

Why do you troll so obviously/desperately/frequently if you've already figured it all out and are sleeping on a mattress made of money? Sincere question.