[suicidekings]

Originally posted on 01/13/2012:

I respect your opinion, but I disagree with some of the statements below.

Been thinking about this game a lot this week and now I'm really starting to feel like San Fran will pull off the upset. Let's face it: The Saints are a different team when they aren't playing indoors especially in New Orleans. Who is the best defense the Saints played all year? Houston in Week 3? New Orleans has run all over the dreck defenses of the league

By that same token, look at the teams the SF defense have faced this season. Eight of these games were played against teams that rank in the bottom third offensively. They only faced 5 playoff teams (4 of them wildcard teams) and one of those games was against a PIT team hobbled by Big Ben's bad ankle. Two more of these teams (DET & CIN) got their asses handed to them last week despite playing close games with SF. SF was very fortunate to have the schedule they did, which by my rankings was among the 5 easiest played by anyone this year. They didn't play any games against the top 5 offenses in the league. On the other side, New Orleans had 3 games against top 5 offensive teams (Carolina x2, Green Bay).

11 games indoors this season. Let's look at the 5 outdoor games: Week 1 @ Green Bay: L 42-34 - Game really wasn't as close as people like to say. Packers led by double digits for practically the entire game. Not putting too much stock in this game though as it was the NFL Opener. Week 4 @ Jacksonville: W 23-10 - Saints put up 2 early tds and then struggled to score from that point on as they kicked 3 second half field goals. Still put up a ton of total yardage but this game was more of a struggle than it should have been against a Jags team with Gabbert in only his second career start. Week 5 @ Carolina: W 30-27 - Game-winning drive by Brees as they scored in the final minute. Another game with early success but a struggle to score in the second half with no tds until the final drive. Week 6 @ Tampa Bay: L 26-20 - 3 interceptions for Brees in this one. For fukk sake, this was Tampa Bay's final win of the season. Week 14 @ Tennessee: W 22-17 - Saints were unable to get those explosive plays we're used to seeing from them. Brees was forced to check down for most of the game but was still efficient. Game was 10-9 in favor of the Titans heading into the fourth. New Orleans was fortunate to come away with the victory as Locker took a sack at the Saints 5 yard line as time expired.

The Packers did lead for most of the game, but were still defending a potential game tying drive in the final minute after surrendering 34 to the Saints. Jacksonville, on the other hand made barely a whimper in the second half and New Orleans was never in danger of losing that game for a second.

What I take from these 5 games is this: The Saints are still a good team but you're kidding yourself if you think they are the same team on the road outdoors. When you take into consideration the different playing surface and the noise factor which limits Brees' ability to make changes at the line of scrimmage, they just aren't quite the same offense.

Who's under the impression that the Saints offense is as potent on the road as at home? And more importantly, who's implying that they need to score 41 points in this game to beat the Niners? (They score 41ppg at home and 27ppg on the road). The Niners are going to have to play tough defense in this game, but the greater challenge is going to be for their offense to keep pace with the Saints. I feel like it's very unlikely that the Niners are going to hold the Saints below 21 points AT MINIMUM, no matter how well their defense plays.

And crowd noise is nothing new for a visiting team to contend with. It's a known commodity that has long since been factored into the line. Implying the advantage is an addition to the available point spread is not correct. The Saints will likely have a couple of extra false-starts, but with an elite offensive line that's been together for a while, the Saints should be well equipped to deal with crowd noise. (The saints OL is statistically the best in the NFL)

What's most important however is that this is the first time New Orleans has faced a legit defense on the road all year. And by legit defense, I mean the best defense in the NFL. I fully expect the 49ers to put pressure in the face of Brees who is only 6 feet tall. The linebackers are fast and physical and it will be much more difficult to use Sproles out of the backfield and Jimmy Graham as well. The Saints love to use play action but the 49ers don't need help from their safeties to stop the run so they can stay at home and limit the deep passes down the middle of the field.

This is a scheduling issue that the Saints had no control over, and is also not true. Jacksonville's defense is ranked #5 this season and Atlanta's defense is #6. At home, the Saints also beat Chicago (#4 defense), Houston (#8 defense), and Detroit twice (#9 defense). Rankings from Football Outsiders.

The Niners are actually weak against running backs receiving out of the backfield, and the Saints are very adept at working Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles together high-low while using Colston/Moore/Meachem to pull the safeties and clear out the middle. You're forced to cover the cluster-f\*\*k in the middle and risk leaving the Saints' WRs in one-on-one coverage downfield or Jimmy Graham will pull in the short slant passes for ~10 yards at a very high completion rate. The Niners do not want to be gambling on 1-on-1 coverage downfield a lot in this game as Meachem & Colston will win these matchups.

San Francisco will put pressure on Brees and he will be forced into making difficult throws. It's impossible to completely stop the Saints offense but I think the 49ers will do a hell of a job and will make enough plays on offense to pull off the upset. I can't believe I'm saying this but Alex Smith has been pretty damn clutch this year and made some money throws under pressure late in games. They don't need him to sling it around the field but he has proven that he can go out there and win a game. I'll decide by Saturday how much I'm putting on this game. 49ers +3.5 will surely be a play as will the ML +whatever. 49ers 20 Saints 17

Brees is VERY well protected by his offensive line (ranked #1 in run blocking, #3 in pass protection) while the SF pass rush sits down at #22. It would be very surprising to see Brees under significant pressure in this game, and should continue to have the time he needs to let routes develop downfield. The strength of SF's rush defense, as you say, is heavily weighted into the linebackers. But the front line does not penetrate well, and as a result they rank 31st in RB tackles for loss. It's part of running a 3-4 system, but significant when we're talking about an opposing QB that is as dangerous as Brees is when given time to operate.