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49ers will knock off the Saints (Write-up inside)
Been thinking about this game a lot this week and now I'm really starting to feel like San Fran will pull off the upset. Let's face it: The Saints are a different team when they aren't playing indoors especially in New Orleans. Who is the best defense the Saints played all year? Houston in Week 3? New Orleans has run all over the dreck defenses of the league and they've been very fortunate to have played 11 games indoors this season.
Let's look at the 5 outdoor games:
Week 1 @ Green Bay: L 42-34 - Game really wasn't as close as people like to say. Packers led by double digits for practically the entire game. Not putting too much stock in this game though as it was the NFL Opener.
Week 4 @ Jacksonville: W 23-10 - Saints put up 2 early tds and then struggled to score from that point on as they kicked 3 second half field goals. Still put up a ton of total yardage but this game was more of a struggle than it should have been against a Jags team with Gabbert in only his second career start.
Week 5 @ Carolina: W 30-27 - Game-winning drive by Brees as they scored in the final minute. Another game with early success but a struggle to score in the second half with no tds until the final drive.
Week 6 @ Tampa Bay: L 26-20 - 3 interceptions for Brees in this one. For fukk sake, this was Tampa Bay's final win of the season.
Week 14 @ Tennessee: W 22-17 - Saints were unable to get those explosive plays we're used to seeing from them. Brees was forced to check down for most of the game but was still efficient. Game was 10-9 in favor of the Titans heading into the fourth. New Orleans was fortunate to come away with the victory as Locker took a sack at the Saints 5 yard line as time expired.
What I take from these 5 games is this: The Saints are still a good team but you're kidding yourself if you think they are the same team on the road outdoors. When you take into consideration the different playing surface and the noise factor which limits Brees' ability to make changes at the line of scrimmage, they just aren't quite the same offense.
What's most important however is that this is the first time New Orleans has faced a legit defense on the road all year. And by legit defense, I mean the best defense in the NFL. I fully expect the 49ers to put pressure in the face of Brees who is only 6 feet tall. The linebackers are fast and physical and it will be much more difficult to use Sproles out of the backfield and Jimmy Graham as well. The Saints love to use play action but the 49ers don't need help from their safeties to stop the run so they can stay at home and limit the deep passes down the middle of the field.
San Francisco will put pressure on Brees and he will be forced into making difficult throws. It's impossible to completely stop the Saints offense but I think the 49ers will do a hell of a job and will make enough plays on offense to pull off the upset. I can't believe I'm saying this but Alex Smith has been pretty damn clutch this year and made some money throws under pressure late in games. They don't need him to sling it around the field but he has proven that he can go out there and win a game.
I'll decide by Saturday how much I'm putting on this game. 49ers +3.5 will surely be a play as will the ML +whatever.
49ers 20
Saints 17
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Originally Posted by Dad
The Seer gave Chimneyfish 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
