[MobFade]

2013: 36-37-1, -3.5 Units

Week 6: 3-6-1, -3 Units
Week 5: 4-7, -4 Units
Week 4: 7-6, -1 Unit
Week 3: 8-6, +3 Units
Week 2: 7-5, +2 Units
Week 1: 7-7, -.5 Units

Buried last weekend with CLE, TB, ARI, and HOU. I think we've hit the point in the season where lines are pretty efficient based on statistics, so I'm going to try transitioning to more situational trends in addition to the usual matchups, injuries, weather.

Plays to lock down now:

2-TM/6-PT Tease -110 | DAL+8.5/SD-1.5 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

SD seems like an obvious teaser leg this week. 7.5 is too many points for me to lay with a team I still think is an over-achiever in SD, but other than last week getting almost 4 TD's, I can't see myself betting on JAX either. HFA means nothing here. DAL I'll have a write-up on later.

TEN+4-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

I was on the fence about this without Locker. I don't think Fitzpatrick is as bad as he's looked and TEN still fields a great D with a solid HFA. Locker is now just questionable, has been cleared for contact, and says he wants to play. I don't see how if you're in the position that TEN is in where you can start dreaming about winning that division with HOU falling completely apart and IND still a team with holes, you can let him sit. I'm making this play now under the assumption we'll see a limited Locker on Sunday. Trends right now supporting this are getting >3 points with a team that allows less than 21 points a game, and a game total under 46. That trend is 115-87, 56.9% since 2008. Also fading any team that has more than 75% of bets is 112-91, 55.2% in the last 8 seasons. Add to that the line value at +4 if you can get it (I'd take +3.5 as well) which is sure to beat the closing line if Locker plays, I think this is a solid spot. Weather is Clear.


More write-ups to follow, but additional teams I like this week at the listed lines are: CHI-PK, HOU+7, DAL+3, TB+7, CIN-ML, BAL-ML, NYG-3.

Teasers: SD, DAL, BAL, CIN

[MobFade]

CHI-PK @ WAS

What am I missing here? Has WAS played a game where they looked good yet? RG3 did look better against DAL and has said he's going to run the ball more, which is what he's needed to do, but he has still not looked comfortable throwing the ball. Football Outsiders has CHI as the #6 overall team, and WAS at #30. I don't usually put any stock in rankings, but their ranking system is based on a lot of in-depth statistical analysis and measures efficiency for damn near every player on the field adjusted for opponent. The disparity on both sides of the ball is not reflected in this line. Injuries and weather not a factor. Only 1 trend here and it's in CHI's favor as well. 264-188, 58.4% tailing the public on road teams in similar spots. Going to lock this one down now as well as I don't see it getting any better. Would take it all the way to CHI-2.5.

CHI-PK-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

TB+7 @ ATL

Another game I want to get now before it goes to 6.5. Julio, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson all out for this one. The Air Raid in the GA dome was the only thing ATL had going for it, and now it's almost completely gone. Matt Ryan obviously still back there, but now throwing to Tony G, you, and me. Jacquizz Rodgers has been a solid RB so I don't think the SJax injury is much of a big deal. The Atlanta defense is pretty much the worst in the league (#31), and their front 7 is laughably bad. Glennon has a couple starts under his belt and should have a pretty easy day feeding Doug Martin for the most part. This line is insane if you look at both teams on paper, but Atlanta is still enjoying the benefit of the doubt with their success in recent years. Line value at 7 is huge, and it will not close there with Roddy White now out. Most of the public is still amazingly on Atlanta, and they do have a worrying trend working for them as favorites off a bye week which are 103-64, 61.7% ATS. I'm not too worried about it as this line should be closer to +4.5 and I think we're getting great value here. TB has a few great trends in their favor as big dogs in a low-scoring game when allowing less than 21 points a game on defense, and as a team that is winless after losing 5 straight. Lock this down now and buy it to +7-125 if it's already moved to 6.5 at your book.

TB+7-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

BUF @ MIA

No lean here. MIA is a bye-week favorite, but Buffalo is actually the better team on paper. Thad Lewis is the wildcard and I think this game will be one of the most informative to watch as I'm not sure what to make of either team at this juncture.

SD @ JAX

No lean here. Not a huge fan of SD and JAX is still almost impossible to bet. Already played SD in a teaser.

DAL+2.5 @ PHI

Going to keep waiting to see if this gets to +3 somehow, though I doubt it. Already played them in a tease with SD and will play the ML if I have to pay more than probably +3-120. PHI has one trend working in their favor in that they've lost their last 3 games by an average margin between 1 and 14 points, and Dallas has won in the same span by 1 to 7 points. That trend is 115-77, 59.9% in the last 6 years, but I think it applies less here because PHI is still a pretty public team. DAL is in a spot where we should be tailing the public who is right here 58.4% of the time ATS, and they are also a dog under .500 that throws for at least 250 yards a game. Teams in that spot are 94-67, 57.7%. They have a third trend in their favor regarding road dogs with 7 days rest that is 407-334, 54.9% since 2005.

STL @ CAR

No lean here. I love CAR, but they need to be more consistent on offense before they can be laying a TD. A close win or a loss here and a TB upset in ATL would probably set this up for a nice CAR play @ TB on Thursday. STL is un-bettable until their upset @ HOU wears off.

[Eddy Munny]

Love the Tampa pick......I was probably a week early when I backed them against the Eagles last week. I have to believe they cover the spread against a generous defense and an injury depleted offense in the Falcons. If the Bucs can't beat the number this week, I may well just write them off for the year.

[face]

tampa owes me money

[MobFade]

CIN+3 @ DET

Line's not quite at 3-110 yet but has a shot at getting there with most bets coming in on DET. Again look for teasers and ML if it doesn't get better than probably +3-120. DET has been good at home but I think now is the time to sell high on them and buy low on CIN. Injuries shouldn't be a factor in this one. CIN has 3 trends working in their favor right now that are 407-334, 54.9% | 115-77, 59.9% | 104-58, 64.2%. Detroit has none.

NE @ NYJ (UNDER)

Slight lean NYJ and/or Under. I think we're seeing a Gronk over-reaction here as I doubt he's 100% and may still get limited reps. I'm still skeptical of Brady's weapons as a whole. The thought of betting against Brady and on Geno Smith getting less than a TD makes me kind of sick so the Under seems like the more prudent play. Trends favor the NYJ 2-0 right now, and I'll see how I feel about this in about 24 hours. Money looks to be pouring in on the Patriots, so this could move quite a bit. Pats to date have been fielding a mediocre offense and average defense. NYJ have had a horrible offense and excellent defense. I like the Under here as I don't expect the Patriots to do much on offense and they have no big-play threat, and I think the NYJ should finally find some room to run inside with Wilfork out of the picture. They also lack a big-play threat, so I'll probably play the Under if it gets to 44-110. Also both teams average less than 21 points a game on offense.

CLE+10.5 @ GB (UNDER)

I'm pretty sure I've been on the wrong side of every Browns game this year. I like them this week mostly because I hate money, but also GB is missing a lot of weapons at WR, they are still missing Clay Matthews, there is a 50% chance of rain right now, and the Browns are really healthy. Unfortunately they are still the Browns and Brandon Weeden is still their QB. Trends favor CLE 2-0 here, and that would get even better if they go to +10.5. The total can be had Under 46-110 now, but because I'm so skeptical of the Browns right now I'm going to see if either the side or total gets any better.

[Eddy Munny]

tampa owes me money

They'll cash your ticket this week. Glennon got V-Jax going and now Mike Williams is back in the mix. It's their time. Phuck 'em if they can't cover this week.

[face]

They'll cash your ticket this week. Glennon got V-Jax going and now Mike Williams is back in the mix. It's their time. Phuck 'em if they can't cover this week.

i want to agree, and will probably bet it, but let me ask you, how do you know they'll try? their season is done

[Eddy Munny]

i want to agree, and will probably bet it, but let me ask you, how do you know they'll try? their season is done

Sure, playoff-wise they are toast. But there has to exist some level of pride in a locker-room full of grown men pulling large paychecks to play football, and reading/hearing about their team's futility on a daily basis. 0-5 is bad, but 0-6 is even worse. At some point, the quest for win number one becomes the recalibrated team goal that keeps the wheels turning.......The quest to get that monkey off their back. If the team is completely bereft of NFL caliber talent, or dysfunctional from within, that's one thing. But the talent is there and there's no large-scale dissent within the organization that I'm privy to. That being said, if the Bucs really want that first win, it's there for the taking. And getting almost a touchdown to boot is just gravy. I'm still buying Tampa stock but if they fail me this week, I'll bail. (Of course then they'll go on some crazy 5-0 streak against the spread.)

[MobFade]

Locking these down:

BAL-ML+125 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
DAL+3-105 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
HOU+7-120 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
CIN+3-120 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

And adding this because I hate money:

CLE+10-110 | BETDSI | 1 UNIT

Really dog-heavy this week.

[chosen4th]

Dogs have not really been doing all that well this year i feel like... im so lost in the nfl this year

[MobFade]

L TEN+4
L CLE+10
W DAL+3-110
W CIN+3-120
W HOU+7-120
L BAL-ML+125
L TB+7-110
L CHI-PK-110

W DAL+8.5/SD-1.5

4-5 Today. Going to try and get on the NYG for tomorrow night if it comes down from -3.5 a little bit.

[Eddy Munny]

Fukking Tampa man.......I swear they should have covered that game. So many opportunities wasted. I had a good # too (+7.5), and of course they have to go and lose by 8. Penalties killed them. The room service fumble, scoop, and score for the Falcons to start the game didn't help either.

[MobFade]

Fukking Tampa man.......I swear they should have covered that game. So many opportunities wasted. I had a good # too (+7.5), and of course they have to go and lose by 8. Penalties killed them. The room service fumble, scoop, and score for the Falcons to start the game didn't help either.

Yeah I liked TB a lot this week. They are still a live dog and we're getting good numbers so I guess they along with the Bears, Browns and fading the Chargers are going to be how I lose 50% of my money this year.

[parlayin]

No plays this week?

[mitch51]

No plays this week?

Mob usually puts up a new NFL thread for each new week on Saturdays. It should come out sometime today as I'm looking for it too.

[Eddy Munny]

Nah dude, he puts out his NFL thread way before Saturday.....usually Thursday or so. I have a feeling MobFade is taking the week off. It's been tough sledding in the NFL, but his write-ups are always sharp.

[parlayin]

Yup, the value is in MobFade's analysis and perspective