These were picks I posted for Week 1 between Pre-season Weeks 2 and 3 here:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...k-woop-p2.html
^Posts #54 - #57http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...5-3-1-11u.html
^Post #4
ATL+3.5-115 @ NO | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITS
HOU-3-120 @ SD | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITS
SEA-2.5-110 @ CAR | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
CIN+3.5-115 @ CHI | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
2 Team 6 Point -110
NE-1.5 @ BUF / MIA @ CLE+8 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS
Picks will be in BOLD
I would still take ATL at it's current +3-100, CIN at +3-110, and the HOU line is still there as well. Seattle I think was okay at -2.5 but I'm really scared that this team is going to start out slow with all their pass-rushers out and wouldn't bet them at -3, maybe lean slightly CAR at +3.5. I could see SEA starting out 2-2 or 1-3. NE I took before Kolb went down and CLE was a juicy +2 that I thought might get better but ended up going to -PK. I still might add some on that CLE game as I think they are a better team than MIA, not the current 3 points worse that is being reflected. Now onto some write-ups.
BAL+9-110 @ DEN
This line seems insane to me. BAL is reloading their defense, but they draft well and have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. I hear a lot of "first to worst" sentiment concerning BAL, but I think they are still very much an 8-9 win team. This line was in that +7.5-110 and teaser protect mode for a while, then von Miller gets suspended and it goes to 9? I'm going to sit on this a bit longer to see if we can get to a not-too-shaded 10, but anything over a TD is a play on BAL for me. DEN could be a teaser play if you can cross the 3.
NE @ BUF
I don't have a side here at -10.5. NE dominates this game so I guess that's the lean but 10.5 is too much for me to lay on the road in a division game against a BUF team that is not bad outside of their current QB situation. Jeff Tuel looked good in pre-season, but will be over-matched against the 1's here. If you got it at the 7 before the injuries, congrats. Otherwise, just stay away.
TEN+7-110 @ PIT
I see a low-scoring, run-focused affair here and like taking points in spots like this. This lean is not a strong one, but I might pull the trigger if we get to +7.5-110. The rationale on this is a little sketch. I like PIT and think they're underrated in a lot of ways. Love Jarvis Jones and Markus Wheaton and think that PIT will be a contender in another year or two. Right now they get a lot of well-deserved criticism because they are old and plodding. Their RB corps is one Shonn Greene away from being the actual definition of mediocre. TEN on the other hand is a pretty bad team, but I think they're just getting too many points here. I like what they did with their interior line and think their best hope is to just keep it on the ground and grind it out.
ATL+3.5-115 @ NO
Already booked this and would take it at +3 as well. IMO Sean Peyton's effect on this organization is being way over-blown. There were serious issues on the NO defense and bringing back your offensive-minded head coach, hiring fat santa as your DC, and drafting a FS doesn't make that all go away. ATL gets a lot of flak for being soft or lucky or whatever, but they are a team with great balance that can score a lot of different ways and play solid on D. Their defense was #12 last year according to Football Outsiders. Line should be -PK or ATL as a small favorite. Getting a FG or more is a gift.
TB-3-110 @ NYJ
TB is the lean here with the injury to Sanchez. I would have taken the NYJ if he was in there, but I'll gladly fade the rookie QB in this case. I also expect this stadium to turn on him rather quickly if things go poorly. I do like the NYJ this year ATS once they find some sort of rhythm and consistency, but I doubt that will be Week 1. Conversely I think TB is getting a pass from Joe Public after blowing it down the stretch last year and with questions at QB. Line is a bit shaded now, so I'll hold off for a bit.
KC-3-135 @ JAX
I'm going to wait on this but if it stays here I would buy this to the 3. As I've been telling anyone who will listen, JAX is a dumpster fire with no identity. Their draft is baffling and I think their offense will be reminiscent of the NYJ last year with Shoelace coming in periodically for who knows what reason. KC is the public's bounce-back team and with good cause. Alex Smith is a capable starter on a team that sent 6 guys to the Pro Bowl and should stop the turnovers that killed this team last year. I think they've generally improved whereas JAX is headed down a dark road with Clowney at the end of the tunnel.