[MobFade]

2013: 22-18, +4.5 Units

Week 3: 8-6, +3 Units
Week 2: 7-5, +2 Units
Week 1: 7-7, -.5 Units

I don't expect as much public action, with them all presumably being broke after Week 3 . What a burial. This week I'll try to just go down the card and give some early leans and pick out spots where I think there is value now, or where there will be later in the week. Using BookMaker lines if available for these as they don't include all the bullshit juiced lines that 5dimes uses. Leans are underlined, * means BookMaker didn't have a line but that is the look-ahead from last week.

SF-3-120 @ STL (THURSDAY)
PIT-PK-110 @ MIN*
SEA @ HOU+3-120
NYG @ KC-4-110
BAL @ BUF+3.5
CIN @ CLE+5-110
ARI+3-110 @ TB
CHI+3-110 @ DET*
IND-8-110 @ JAX
NYJ+5 @ TEN
DAL @ SD+2-110
WAS-3.5-110 @ OAK*
PHI+9.5-110 @ DEN*
NE @ ATL+1-110 (SNF)
MIA+5.5-110 @ NO (MNF)


Looks like we're just betting road teams straight down the card. Last week we were pretty balanced in Home/Away, but there is a precedent-setting trend at work here. Home Field Advantage is no longer worth 3 points ... more like 2.5 since 2010. BUT with the nature of scoring in the NFL, a FG is the edge given the host thereby lending us an implicit advantage with road teams. In fact, you would be a winning bettor if you blindly bet every road team in the last 10 years. This year so far it has been worth about 3.15 points, but I expect a regression to the mean. I believe it was Sportscasters (the book) that posited that Instant Replay is the cause for this. Refs subconsciously want to make the home crowd happy, and they have less opportunities to do this, especially in scoring situations and with the advent of the challenge.

The leans that stand out:

PIT: No way this opens PIT-PK. They match up extremely well with MIN and I capped this at PIT-3. Unfortunately, both teams have been losing with MIN losing to the hapless Browns being the more high-profile of the two. PIT's D, while a shell of it's former self, still projects to be solid against downhill RB's and #1 WR's. MIN lacks a true #1, and has a downhill runner in AP, who looks like he's tapered off his HGH regiment and come back down to earth. Ponder against Dick Lebeau = murder. MIN's offense is a sieve and PIT's Offense should be able to produce here. Will be interesting to see if any sharps jump on this off the open. Might need to chase steam if that happens, otherwise we can wait for thespread.com's Public Bet pie charts to update.

BUF: This was a game I knew there would be value on before Week 3, and I capped this at BUF-PK knowing it would be something like BAL-3. Getting to the other side of 3 is all gravy, but a lot of this is predicated on Spiller coming back. BAL's D (heh) doesn't match up well against speed backs or mobile QB's. On the other side, BUF is finally bringing great pressure with their front 4 which should take away the Flacco deep shot to Torrey Smith. BAL already didn't have an intermediate pass game, and Ray Rice will either be a no-go or still off a soft-tissue injury that could slow him down. I think BAL is going to be the public team after stomping HOU and BUF losing to the lowly Jets so mayyybe a Wednesday play if we can get to +4, but don't want to wait too long on this one.

ARI: Pretty straight-forward here. ARI>TB. ARI smartly using Ellington more and more projects as a good matchup against a solid TB run D. The matchup I really like here is ARI D against Freeman as I imagine the kid has to feel like everything is slipping away from him. ARI D should be able to capitalize.

CHI: Like the PIT game, no way this thing opens at CHI+3. If it did, I believe the phrase is "All-In". The line SHOULD be CHI-3.5 but will probably be CHI-2.5.

MIA: Matty Ice went absolutely off against MIA, yet they still came up short. MIA is better than NO, and getting 5.5 points definitely doesn't reflect that. This is funny because I just swore I wouldn't fade NO in the SuperDome again after the beat-down they put on ARI. Well, this was the exception.


Overall, I don't feel as strongly about this card right now as I did last week. Going to have to let the money coming in decide our plays for us on some of these.

[parlayin]

PIT: No way this opens PIT-PK. They match up extremely well with MIN and I capped this at PIT-3. Unfortunately, both teams have been losing with MIN losing to the hapless Browns being the more high-profile of the two. PIT's D, while a shell of it's former self, still projects to be solid against downhill RB's and #1 WR's. MIN lacks a true #1, and has a downhill runner in AP, who looks like he's tapered off his HGH regiment and come back down to earth. Ponder against Dick Lebeau = murder. MIN's offense is a sieve and PIT's Offense should be able to produce here. Will be interesting to see if any sharps jump on this off the open. Might need to chase steam if that happens, otherwise we can wait for thespread.com's Public Bet pie charts to update.

Looks like you should get this soon. Bookmaker shows the game opening at min -1.5 and now up to pit -1.5.

09/23 02:52 PM	-1½ -110	+1½ -110
09/23 02:50 PM	PK -110	PK -110
09/23 02:34 PM	+1½ -110	-1½ -110

i thought min would open -1 not based on my own assessment but public perception of the teams. most power rankings have them slightly higher than pit, which is flawed in any particular game due to matchups.

CHI: Like the PIT game, no way this thing opens at CHI+3. If it did, I believe the phrase is "All-In". The line SHOULD be CHI-3.5 but will probably be CHI-2.5.

All-in time then! you can still get chi +3 at a lot of places. i thought the line would open around a PK so this looks fishy to me.

[parlayin]

double post

[MobFade]

A couple plays
BUF+3.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
PIT-1-115 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

Some updates on opening movement:

I want to pull the trigger on SF-3-110, but the problems they have are real. Their secondary is one of the worst in the league, as is their WR corps. Kaepernick looks indecisive and Aldon Smith just checked into rehab. The issues with their secondary were masked by their pass-rush. The issues with their WR corps were masked by Kaepernick. As with all football teams, positions, and players, they are made better or worse by the team around them and SF is in a downward spiral right now that continues to compound on itself. On a short week going to a division rival that matches up well defensively, I'm wary to say the least. I don't know if that is enough time to rally the troops AND game-plan for this. On the flip-side, STL has looked bad and the pressure finally got home to Bradford with Saffold out. If you look at STL's WR/TE corps, they look like they're trying to run the most high-octane offense in football. Unfortunately, all roads lead to Sam Bradford, and you're asking him to throw 47 times a game. Literally. 141 throws through 3 games. Now admittedly they are running the WCO and he's not being asked to throw downfield much, evidenced by his 62% completions and his 6.3 yard average, but they have no run game to mix things up. Teams can sell out to defend the flat-passing game without worrying too much about runs inside, and that one-dimensional play is going to put a QB like Bradford in a sub-optimal spot. I'm just going to hold off and take a deeper look at this game later in the week, maybe get a better number. Some action came in on STL+3.5, but that was likely just some small action picking off the hook.

I had no idea the PIT/MIN game was in London which makes this line even crazier. Even moreso, MIN might be the public side! That's at least according to BetDSI's consensus which has the public 62% "on" MIN. The way this week is shaping up, it looks like there will be less plays total, but more of them will be multi-unit. This game is a multi-unit play and I want to lock down at least 1 unit at this number. I don't really trust these consensus polls that aren't tied to any money, but with PIT being 0-3 and MIN having more fantasy value, I guess we could see the public backing MIN. This is a play for me at anything better than PIT-2.5 but will wait and see if we can milk anything else out of it before Wednesday.

Similar situation as with PIT applies to the BUF game. +3.5 is a great number and it's slowly getting bought down to +3 even though the public is 70% on BAL. I want to get at least 1 unit on it at +3.5 and we'll see where this goes later. CJ Spiller sounds like his injury was not his knee, but his thigh and should be good to go against BAL.

Other notes: That CHI game looks so juicy and if you can get it at +3, do it. I would, but I don't have it at any books. PHI will be play at +10.5 or better and it looks like it's at 11 right now, just not up on any books I have but we might hold off to see where it goes after DEN's MNF game. CIN, IND, SF are all >80% public this week. BAL, SEA, DAL are all 75% road teams, and pretty much the rest of the games are the public 66% on the home team.

[MobFade]

i thought min would open -1 not based on my own assessment but public perception of the teams. most power rankings have them slightly higher than pit, which is flawed in any particular game due to matchups.

Hmm I didn't know that. I have CHI as a Top 10 team and MIN as a Bottom 10 team. I'll release some power rankings hopefully in the next 24 hours.

All-in time then! you can still get chi +3 at a lot of places. i thought the line would open around a PK so this looks fishy to me.

CHI losing Melton and DET ostensibly getting Reggie Bush back temper my enthusiasm a bit, but CHI is still definitely the play. Melton wasn't blowing up the stat line, but that's because he was eating double-teams inside.

[2daBank]

tillman has a gimpy hammy as well..i agree with you tho i have chi much higher up my board than det..

[MobFade]

Couple of plays:

CHI ML+120 | TOP BET | 2 UNITS

2-TM / 6-PT TEASE -110
ARI+9/CHI+8.5 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS

Posted my NFL Power Rankings but haven't had time for the write-ups.

To update some leans:

Still liking PHI and it's sitting comfortably at +11 now. The size of this total marginalizes the big spread quite a bit and neither team matches up well defensively with the other. The NYJ don't seem 4.5 points worse than the Titans to me. MIA getting awful close to +7.

[MobFade]

Locking this down as I don't see it getting any better:

NYJ+4.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

[2daBank]

already played jets myself..line seems way out of whack simply cause titans won the overrated bowl with sd? for some reason both those teams overvalued imo..

[MobFade]

Bovada posting some lines. Going to pretty much finish out my card for the week except adding to BUF:

PIT-1-115 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
KC-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

Now have 2 units on PIT. Added KC as that looks good and I don't see it getting better although it is a great situation to be betting the NYG if you're into that sort of thing.

[MobFade]

already played jets myself..line seems way out of whack simply cause titans won the overrated bowl with sd? for some reason both those teams overvalued imo..

Ya, I like TEN but I think NYJ still catching too much flak from last season. Defense has looked really good and I don't think TEN is anything too special on either side. Another week under Geno's belt can't hurt anything.

[2daBank]

as long as geno doesnt come out throwing pick 6s or turning it over in his own zone i just dont see how nyj doesnt at least stay in the gm? hell if he plays decent id think jets win..

[parlayin]

Locking this down as I don't see it getting any better:

NYJ+4.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

Thoughts on this one?

[SteveRyan]

Nothing personal, but I think your assessment of Pittsburgh @ Minny is way off.

Now is not the time to be laying anything on Pittsburgh especially since they are on the road in the 1st of back-to-back road games for them. They will probably lose both. Steelers have put up only 42 points this season; Minny has put up 81 and 54 of those points were vs Detroit and Chicago which were both road games.

The books love matchups like this. All those Steeler fans out there are gonna get crushed.

[2daBank]

Nothing personal, but I think your assessment of Pittsburgh @ Minny is way off.

Now is not the time to be laying anything on Pittsburgh especially since they are on the road in the 1st of back-to-back road games for them. They will probably lose both. Steelers have put up only 42 points this season; Minny has put up 81 and 54 of those points were vs Detroit and Chicago which were both road games.

The books love matchups like this. All those Steeler fans out there are gonna get crushed.

not on the road, well road for both teams. gm is in london. i agree im not really into pit cause that oline been terrible but def better chance at a neutral site than at dome..

[SteveRyan]

not on the road, well road for both teams. gm is in london. i agree im not really into pit cause that oline been terrible but def better chance at a neutral site than at dome..

Oh shiit....it's one of those London games. I didn't even notice that.

Still, I'm on Minny.

[2daBank]

Oh shiit....it's one of those London games. I didn't even notice that.

Still, I'm on Minny.

yep shitbag london gm.. id prob be with you in minny but its never really hurt my feelings to pass on this gm as there just to many other factors involved, shit hard enough already w/o trying to cap which team handles the trip better..

[MobFade]

Thoughts on this one?

Pretty much what bank said. These are two about equal teams, advantage NYJ on D and TEN at QB. This line should be TEN-3 maybe -3-120 and I think the value we're getting is just coming from the NYJ being the NYJ of last year.

Another angle is that this is a game with a total under 40 making these 4.5 points worth a little more. Even more specifically we have this trend working in our favor.

Teams that are dogs of 3 or more that allow less than 21 PPG playing in a game with a total under 46 AND that the public is less than 45% on are 115-87, 56.9% ATS. Sounds like a lot of parameters but it makes sense. Defensive team that the public doesn't really like (meaning it probably doesn't have a flashy offense) playing in what projects to be a low scoring game covers a good percentage of the time. I think the NYJ right now would be in the top half of teams in that sample size. Rookie QB for sure, but they're not asking him to do much, this D is allowing 16.7 PPG so far (small sample but they seem good) and TEN is just a mediocre team.

[2daBank]

yep points are great with what should be a race to 20..

[MobFade]

Oh shiit....it's one of those London games. I didn't even notice that.

Still, I'm on Minny.

I see the PIT D stacking up really well against MIN, comparable to how CHI did. That was the game MIN scored 2 TD's on D and ST. Big Ben >>> Christian Ponder. Minnesota is giving up 32 PPG, 3rd worst in the NFL and just let the Browns hang 27 after they tried to flush the season away. Only laying 1 point on a neutral field is pretty dreamy IMO even with Felton coming back.

[firekillex]

I have a few of the same picks as you already haha, im loving the KC and CHI games.
almost bet on the steelers game you're talking about as well, dont really see how they could lose to the vikings at this point. Steelers have been losing, but its been to quality teams and if some plays were a bit different they couldve came out ontop. On the other side the vikings have just looked absolutely terrible, losing to a browns team with no running back and a 3rd string QB is just sad especially when you were a playoff team last year. I see this as being a better week in the winning department

[MobFade]

I have a few of the same picks as you already haha, im loving the KC and CHI games.
almost bet on the steelers game you're talking about as well, dont really see how they could lose to the vikings at this point. Steelers have been losing, but its been to quality teams and if some plays were a bit different they couldve came out ontop. On the other side the vikings have just looked absolutely terrible, losing to a browns team with no running back and a 3rd string QB is just sad especially when you were a playoff team last year. I see this as being a better week in the winning department

[MobFade]

To update an initial lean, I'm no longer considering WAS as a play.

[MobFade]

Buying Miami to the 7:

MIA+7-125 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

Rotoworld confirming now that initial reports about Wake's injury were a bit of hyperbole. They're talking about him maybe just coming in for passing downs if he's limited at all. I really like his backup Shelby too. He's no Wake, but definitely legit. Miami has been a balanced Top 10 team this year and we're getting a full TD. I like them to be in this game throughout so a TD seems like a gift, even if we had to buy it ourselves.

[2daBank]

Buying Miami to the 7:

MIA+7-125 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

Rotoworld confirming now that initial reports about Wake's injury were a bit of hyperbole. They're talking about him maybe just coming in for passing downs if he's limited at all. I really like his backup Shelby too. He's no Wake, but definitely legit. Miami has been a balanced Top 10 team this year and we're getting a full TD. I like them to be in this game throughout so a TD seems like a gift, even if we had to buy it ourselves.

huh, no shit, i havnt gotten any alert update about wake all day so i just assumed he was gonna be out still.. that changes things a little bit but really just makes me like the under more so than mia,,luv the fish but think im starting to come around to the idea that aints defense is actually pretty good which is shocking. if they playing d they really tough and not sure mia ready for primetime in the big easy, although i mostly looked at this gm with the assumption Wake was out till after their bye which still a few weeks off so kinda surprised by news..

[BIGSACK]

What's ur take Thursday night 49ers-rams? already got my bet on 49ers -3, think the niners offense will finally have a big against this overrated soft rams d

[2daBank]

What's ur take Thursday night 49ers-rams? already got my bet on 49ers -3, think the niners offense will finally have a big against this overrated soft rams d

doesnt make a lot of sense that would be the case seeing how when sf had a healthy davis, crabtree, and were clicking on all cylinders last season they couldnt beat stl.. not sure what they have done to improve? if anything rams have made improvements and sf has gotten progressively worse, 1st by loosing crabtree now davis banged up, and they missing all kinds of impact defensive players to boot.. rams only issue been for whatever reason they simply havnt shown up in the 1st half of any gm yet, why that is i dunno but certainly seems more correctable than all 49ers issues atm, thu night might even be enough to get them focused early in the gm..

[MobFade]

What's ur take Thursday night 49ers-rams? already got my bet on 49ers -3, think the niners offense will finally have a big against this overrated soft rams d

Reposted from earlier: I want to pull the trigger on SF-3-110, but the problems they have are real. Their secondary is one of the worst in the league, as is their WR corps. Kaepernick looks indecisive and Aldon Smith just checked into rehab. The issues with their secondary were masked by their pass-rush. The issues with their WR corps were masked by Kaepernick. As with all football teams, positions, and players, they are made better or worse by the team around them and SF is in a downward spiral right now that continues to compound on itself. On a short week going to a division rival that matches up well defensively, I'm wary to say the least. I don't know if that is enough time to rally the troops AND game-plan for this. On the flip-side, STL has looked bad and the pressure finally got home to Bradford with Saffold out. If you look at STL's WR/TE corps, they look like they're trying to run the most high-octane offense in football. Unfortunately, all roads lead to Sam Bradford, and you're asking him to throw 47 times a game. Literally. 141 throws through 3 games. Now admittedly they are running the WCO and he's not being asked to throw downfield much, evidenced by his 62% completions and his 6.3 yard average, but they have no run game to mix things up. Teams can sell out to defend the flat-passing game without worrying too much about runs inside, and that one-dimensional play is going to put a QB like Bradford in a sub-optimal spot. I'm just going to hold off and take a deeper look at this game later in the week, maybe get a better number. Some action came in on STL+3.5, but that was likely just some small action picking off the hook.


Basically I have no penetrating idea. I really don't know how SF schemes for this offensively. They didn't activate LaMichael James for this game, and that was one idea I had. Rams are solid against the inside rush and do a good job bottling up Kaep. The 49ers lack the WR corps to rely on the pass game too much.

Edward Jones usually isn't much of a HFA, although Cardinals aren't playing that day so it might almost be full. Rams offense actually matches up pretty well against 49ers right now. You probably take away the run game and Jared Cook, but this team was built to be beat SEA and SF with timing, speed, and getting the ball out quick on high-percentage throws to let them make plays.

I guess really looking at this game, the Under is the obvious play with Bank's 1st half under angle looking exceptionally good here. I would probably now switch my lean to the Rams once you run down all the matchups. I'll probably play the under in some fashion. Probably won't touch the side as IDK the psychology of the 9ers locker room. For all I know the could come out playing inspired ball after this two-week meltdown, but Kaep strikes me as the kind of kid that's going to start playing really sloppy now.

[BIGSACK]

49ers hasn't given up that many yard and actually did plenty stops the past 2 weeks. I believe one of their defenses major weakness is against the run, which rams hasn't been able to do. I like the 49ers because the rams is an even bigger mess than the 49ers, Wilson and luck created big problems for the niners because their mobility and Sam Bradford is just pocket passer, the pressure will get to him, and with rams non existing running game, the hits will take a toll on bradford.

[BIGSACK]

I would take the over if that's around 45 and no more than 48. It's indoor in St. Louis, and since all rams do is pass pass pass, so they will get some points. and rams defense hasn't been that good, so 49ers should also get some, actually I think they will out score the rams in a 27-20 type game

[2daBank]

never take a over on thu night, unless it thanksgiving or 1st gm of the season, rest of the time you fighting a losing battle on these thur night short week shit shows..

[MobFade]

Fade the rook with Glennon getting the start. Easy plays:

ARI ML +130 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

Already had them +9 in a teaser w/ CHI for 1.5 Units so just going to add the ML to win 1 unit. Rookie in his first start. Arizona D is banged up for sure, but they were an easy Top 10 unit coming into the year, I think they're at least average with some playmakers throughout. Glennon compares I would say to Nick Foles coming out of college.

[MobFade]

Adding:

CIN-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

I like CLE's defense a lot and they were a team I liked to emerge as an ATS cash-cow once Gordon and Lauvau came back. Then the front-office tries to tank the season, trading away T Rich who was thought to be one of the cornerstones of the franchise, allegedly shopping Josh Gordon and giving Brian Hoyer the start in consecutive weeks. We all saw how they beat MIN against all odds and now CLE looks like a live dog again. Not so fast.

I think after this week we'll get a glimpse at how truly bad MIN is, and we'll all wonder how we layed 6 points on that team against anyone. The CLE defense is still intact, but I can't imagine that another week of hearing how the Front Office has already phoned it in can be inspirational to anyone. Hoyer looked good against MIN's D, who has allowed 32 points a game but also threw 3 picks in a comeback victory. That comeback is what stands out in people's minds, especially those of use that bet MIN (90% of bettors).

CIN is a different beast. Though watching Andy Dalton can be hemorrhage inducing with how sissy-armed he is when he's not overthrowing AJ Green, this team is firing on all cylinders. Their defense is just as good if not better than CLE's, and their offense is actually functioning. The media was able to spin their defeat of the Packers as a last-minute fumble that was returned for a TD, but those that watched the game saw a defense completely dominate Rodgers for an entire game, while their offense turned the ball over on 4 consecutive drives. 3 of those were fumbles. I really like what Gio Bernard brings to the table and he's now essentially splitting snaps with BGE.

If anything I think CLE is the more overrated team here with Hoyer starting at QB and their late-game heroics last week.

[2daBank]

i just really dont see Trich as someone who impacted the franchise that greatly and certainly not a guy that was making a week to week difference with his 3.5ypc ass, like i said last week i think the addition of gordon was more valuable than the subtraction of him.. didnt like when i heard gordon was on the trading block but hell if i was him id be balling like no 2marro trying to get the hell out of there! bungals been superior to this team for the last several years yet havnt even covered this small number that many times (think 2 out of last 6 or something)..i doubt i play cle again but i couldnt back cincy here just cause this gm tends to be close..

[MobFade]

i just really dont see Trich as someone who impacted the franchise that greatly and certainly not a guy that was making a week to week difference with his 3.5ypc ass, like i said last week i think the addition of gordon was more valuable than the subtraction of him.. didnt like when i heard gordon was on the trading block but hell if i was him id be balling like no 2marro trying to get the hell out of there! bungals been superior to this team for the last several years yet havnt even covered this small number that many times (think 2 out of last 6 or something)..i doubt i play cle again but i couldnt back cincy here just cause this gm tends to be close..

I agree 100% with the T Rich and Gordon assessments. I think CLE got good value for a guy that didn't fit their system. I wasn't much of a fan of CIN last year in the back half of the season, but I think they look pretty dominant now. I think last week's Browns were a flash in the pan against a crap team, and I think they come back to earth this week against a CIN team that is one of the best in the NFL.