Originally Posted by
suicidekings
Georgia +7.5 (-113) x10
I think Georgia wins this game SU.
I think it's tempting to look at Alabama's season and see parallels with their 2011 campaign, but I think that's a mistake. When you break down their year on a game to game basis, I don't think it's all that impressive. What appeared to be a tough schedule to start the year looks a lot less intimidating when you consider that Michigan and Arkansas turned out to be a lot weaker than anticipated. I also have zero respect for Mississippi State as their schedule was heavily rear-loaded, coasting through the first 7 games only to be proven frauds by the remaining teams on their schedule. So that leaves Alabama with only two games against legit teams (LSU and TAMU) with both of those games being close. What appeared to be an SOS of around #30 turned out to be much more modest, around #65.
Georgia entered the season with an SOS ranked around #75, and I think the case can be made that their schedule turned out to be a bit tougher than preseason rankings suggested with Florida surpassing predictions. The result is these two teams having played schedules that were about the same difficulty overall. Both teams earned their single losses by getting caught off-balance by a team with something to prove. There's no way Alabama deserves to be laying more than a touchdown in this game.
The reason I like Georgia here is because over the course of the year, we've seen a great deal of consistency from Alabama. I think we can be quite certain of the level Saban is going to bring to the field in this game. Georgia has been more variable largely due to one factor: the health of Jarvis Jones. When we look at Georgia's games, they've been 6-6 ATS this year, but are 0-2 in games where JJ was out, and lost to SC in the game where JJ injured his ankle. In short, Georgia plays their best football when they're able to generate a significant pass rush.
A healthy JJ represents a serious problem for Alabama because AJ McCarron is a different player when the opposing defense is able to apply pressure to him. This was a major factor in Bama's games against LSU and TAMU, who despite combining for only 3 sacks, were able to pressure him in both games. McCarron is a smart kid that mostly knows when to throw the ball away and avoid the sack, but he's not a player that can stand in the pocket and make completions under heavy pressure. If Georgia manages to get to him early with a couple of knockdowns and shake his confidence, Alabama's chances of winning this game go down dramatically. On the ground, the Bulldogs' rush defense has been quite good this year, and has been heavily practiced in the last two weeks against B2B triple option opponents (Georgia Southern & Georgia Tech) in which discipline is critical for the defensive players to stay on their assignments. I think it's safe to say that going into Week 14, Georgia is one of the last teams you would want to be trying to run against, given their recent tune-up.
Offensively, Georgia is just loaded with receivers, giving Aaron Murray a lot of options on every passing play, testing the depth of the Alabama secondary, while also being able to rely on Gurley/Marshall out of the backfield. They have as much or more firepower than anyone else Alabama has seen this year.
Ultimately, I like the Georgia defense to be very effective in this game, not allowing the Alabama run game to be the strength it normally is, and force McCarron to sit back in the pocket and throw while under pressure from their pass rush. I'm calling for Georgia to win this game outright, but a decision by a FG either way wouldn't surprise me. I think at Georgia +7.5, this line is a strong play.
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Really like this play,nice write up......
