[Capybara]

Okay, so to tabulate up:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units

Total: 23-19-2, +4.50 units

Starting next week, I'm probably going to increase some wagers to see if I can kick this thing into gear... tired of all this child's play.

Speaking of which, an early Week #6 play:

New England -3.5 (2x)

I have the utmost respect for Seattle's D, it is fully legit. However, no team is going to stop the insanely up-tempo hurry-up offense the Pats have right now. The crowd noise in Seattle won't matter, as those guys have used it successfully in the loudest places. And as bright as the Seahawks' future is, it's still a rookie QB vs. Belichick. A Seattle win just doesn't add up here. Pats cover this.

[Capybara]

Play #2:

Buffalo/Arizona Under 43.5 (2x)

Buffalo's O-line decimated with two more starters dropping this week. And Arizona's O-line is already one of the worst, with Kolb getting decapitated at a record pace, plus now they've got yet another RB gone for the year. Plus, Buffalo's D was challenged by the GM after way underachieving the last couple of weeks. It all seems to add up to some value on this under, so worth a shot! Plus, I expect this number to drop.

[Capybara]

Tonight should probably be a no-play, but who's kidding who, we're degenerates.

So looking at the interesting line movement and also going on my own hunch that Tennessee will look much better tonight than they have lately, I'm going with:

Tennessee +6.5 (1x)

With no Polamalu I see the possibility that CJ2K actually gets a few holes tonight and is at least mediocre. I also see Kenny Britt making a big play or two and even nearing 100 yards. Hasselbeck is an old fukk now (37) but he's still got some smarts and I'm thinking that he may be able to take advantage of a somewhat overrated/vulnerable Pitt D as long as the run game has worked enough to give him a little time.

Now I could also see Tennessee having this cover all game and then losing the handle late, so I'm also going to throw this down for the fukk of it:

Tennessee 1H +3.5 (1x)

If I'm down two units tonight, whatever, I'm planning to have a monster Sunday anyway.

[Capybara]

Tennessee +6.5 (1x)


Tennessee 1H +3.5 (1x)

Cash, Muthafukkaz.

[Capybara]

New England -3.5 (2x)

I have the utmost respect for Seattle's D, it is fully legit. However, no team is going to stop the insanely up-tempo hurry-up offense the Pats have right now. The crowd noise in Seattle won't matter, as those guys have used it successfully in the loudest places. And as bright as the Seahawks' future is, it's still a rookie QB vs. Belichick. A Seattle win just doesn't add up here. Pats cover this.

Adding 1x more of Pats -3.5 at +102.

Wanted to have more research done today and more plays placed and posted, but have had a migraine all day.

Hope very much to feel better in the morning and get some more moneymakers in here!

[wizcodlifa]

Following you on the pats!
Bol

[Capybara]

Play #5:

Cleveland ML +110 (1x)

Just got a feeling today could be that long-awaited win for the Brownies. Joe Haden back, and if you can take away A.J. Green, I'm not sure how many ways this Bengals team can hurt you. Just think the Browns will be jacked up to bring home a W today.

[Capybara]

Play #6, a 6.5-pt teaser:

San Fran -0.5 / Colts-Jets Over 37 (1x)

[jakeloftin2186]

What would u do with pats -5

[Capybara]

What would u do with pats -5

Why do you have to give 5, you mean with a local? Well, I really do like the Pats, so guess I'd still do it, but that's a crappy line. Maybe you can tease them with the Niners or something?

[Capybara]

Friggin' Pats collapse made me ill. Had about 1,000 chances to score more points and just kept throwing up on themselves, and then naturally choke the game away to add insult to injury. What a joke.

Well, at least we hit for two units on that Bills under and also hit the Cleveland ML.

For tonight:

Houston -4, -103 (2x)

The Packers' desperate need for this game scares me some, but I've been on the Texans all year, calling them the best in the NFL, and I'm not jumping off after one failed cover. The Packers' O-line is in for a long night here. I think the Pack are without a few pieces they could really use in this game, and I'm riding with the healthier team, even without Cushing.

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] GB/Hou Under 57.5 +100 (2x)

[Capybara]

Ugh, sorry everyone, embarrassing night. All because the Pats choked in that fukkin game and ruined what should have been an excellent day... Because of course, that six-unit swing caused me to bet angry tonight, which never ever works for me.

Well, gonna look very closely at MNF. If I really like a play or two, I'll try and get back -- if not, I'll just take my medicine. Ah well. We fight on.

[Capybara]

MNF:

I've looked at every conceivable angle of tonight's game and the thing is simply a toss-up, that's all there is to it. Which stinks, because I want to make a big play or two and get back, but I'm really not seeing it.

Yeah, the sharps all seem to love Denver, and the public too because of Peyton. I can see the love based on who the Broncos have played and lost to (Atl, Hou, NE) versus who the Chargers have played and beat (Oak, KC, Tenn). But so what, you can only play who's on your schedule. Doesn't mean the Chargers stink just because they haven't played anyone. Yeah, Manning's been playing great, but Rivers isn't exactly chopped liver, the guy can sling it. And both teams have weapons to throw to.

On defense, sure the Chargers' secondary is vulnerable, okay, but the Broncos' run D is also vulnerable, so if Mathews gets going -- which he certainly could -- then that just opens things up even more for Rivers.

As for the total, it's hard not to want to play Over 47, BUT, again, say Mathews is churning out yards and SD is ball-controlling and winning the possession game and keeping Manning off the field... or say Denver is doing the same thing, moving it on long drives with all their short and intermediate stuff because SD is taking away the outside threats... plus add in the possibility of Miller and Dumervil wreaking havoc on the banged up O-line of SD. Just don't like it.

I prefer to just watch this thing and see if I'm getting any feelings in-game for 2H or live plays.

Anyone can feel free to chime in if you disagree or see an edge I'm missing. Or if you love any props. Good luck tonight.

Oh, the update is 4-4, -3.13 units this week after getting fukked by the Pats and chasing with the Texans game. If I can find any attractive plays in this thing tonight, I'll be on them.

[Capybara]

First off, an admission that I was a total pussy Monday night. Watched every second of that game, followed every live bet offered, and kept telling myself to play Denver and the Over as the offers kept getting tastier and tastier (Denver TT over 16.5... Denver +15, etc.), and just pussied out! And it was fully capped off when I was all ready to go 5 units on the 2H Denver -4.5, and just couldn't click Submit -- Ouch!!! That only covered by 31 points.

Anyway, so a .500 weekend and down 3 units:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units

Total: 27-23-2, +1.37 units

[Capybara]

Anyway, here we go, Week #7...

What my gut says is that we have a situation tonight much like last week with Jets/Colts. The Jets were coming off an embarrassing home loss. The Colts were coming off a huge comeback win against a great team. So what happened? Things reverted back to normal, with the home team taking care of business against the overmatched opponent. Obviously I'm not saying the Seahawks are the Colts, because they have great players and an awesome D. However, that offense is a little overrated at the moment, they just aren't going to score many points against a very solid defense like the Niners'. Whereas the Niners were rolling and looking dominant until last week when everything that could go wrong did go wrong against the Giants. So I say they get right tonight in something like a 23-10 kind of game. The only thing that worries me is Alex Smith's finger -- hard to tell if that contributed to his three picks last week. The guy was under the radar playing great ball up until then, I'd hate to see it come apart. But good to see Staley playing tonight, that is big. So can't decide if I prefer under action or SF action. But anyway, here's what I'm going with:

Seattle/SF 1H Under 19, -105 (2x)

Seattle/SF Under 37.5, -106 (2x)

San Francisco -8, -110 (2x)

San Francisco 1H -5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

Seattle/SF 1H Under 19, -105 (2x)

San Francisco 1H -5, -105 (1x)

Up a unit from that first half. Was anyone else utterly confused by the Niner play-calling? They're running it for like six yards a carry and they decide not to run at all in their last two possessions???? What the fukk?!

Not sure on 2H here. San Fran didn't give me a lot to feel good about. I do sort of think they turn it around, but who knows, Seattle sure looked better in that half.

[Capybara]

Alex Smith cost me a plus-five-unit night, had Moss wide open for that TD where he inexplicably throws it to Seattle. Dumbass. Also coulda used that safety at the end -- thanks for nothin', Harbaugh!!

Oh well, still +0.75 for the night, I'll take a green night anytime. Back soon with more plays.

[pixster]

All week long, the intelligence was saying: Defense. Anyone who went with the under got the point (no pun intended). Personally, I couldn't ignore the fact that Seattle hadn't lost a game by more than 6 points this season. Once the spread went to 8 right before game time, man I jumped on it like the sharps did when the line first came out earlier in the week at 8.5. Good luck the rest of the way, bro.

[Capybara]

All week long, the intelligence was saying: Defense. Anyone who went with the under got the point (no pun intended). Personally, I couldn't ignore the fact that Seattle hadn't lost a game by more than 6 points this season. Once the spread went to 8 right before game time, man I jumped on it like the sharps did when the line first came out earlier in the week at 8.5. Good luck the rest of the way, bro.

Yep, agree, the under was the clear play, and glad I hit it as well. I really think Niners was the correct side too, as they completely took the game over in the second half... just figured they could get it to 17-6 or 20-6 -- disappointed they couldn't get past 13.

[Capybara]

Seattle/SF 1H Under 19, -105 (2x)

Seattle/SF Under 37.5, -106 (2x)

San Francisco -8, -110 (2x)

San Francisco 1H -5, -105 (1x)

Just putting this all in one place for easy reference/tabulation...

So 2-2, +0.75 on the night.

Man, season continues to be frustrating -- feel like I've been on a bunch of correct plays that are just falling short. Oh well, feel like my capping is sharpening, and that bodes well...

[Capybara]

All right, let's get some plays in here...

Minnesota -6.5 (2x)

Arizona's coming back to earth. This game could be a little ugly, but when it's all said and done I can't see 'Zona coming out without another beatdown... they are banged up and Minnesota is playing good ball. They just ran into an RG3 buzzsaw last weekend.

Dallas/Carolina Over 45.5 (1x)

I predict Cam Newton comes out of the bye playing better ball and the Cats put up some points. And their D is just not good at all. Should be some points in this contest.

New England -10.5 (2x)

Maybe I'm a sucker -- the Jets' D is always capable of confusing even the best QB's... but I think the Pats have had it with blowing all these close games in the end; they will be putting the pedal to the metal to blow the Jets out of the fukkin water here and leave no room for error. The Jets will not run it anywhere near as well as they did against the Colts, and I'll put my money on Sanchez not getting it done even against this weak secondary.

Cleveland +2 (1x)

Just taking a shot here, think these guys are starting to put it together a little and I like the T-Rich match-up against the Colts' terrible run D.

Tampa Bay +1.5 (1x)

Another shot based on interesting RLM, a team getting better against a team getting worse, and of course a home dog.

[Capybara]

Damn, really like the Texans, but I was counting on that line coming down. After Thursday night, I just don't feel like giving 7. In any event, I see a big bounce-back for the Texans. They got absolutely beat down at home in prime time and that's gotta be burning. For my money, Baltimore is the perfect team to get back against -- yeah, they're good, but in no way are they a legit 5-1, more like 3-3 quality, maybe 4-2, but now they're completely battered and bruised. And they're not the same team on the road. Does anyone really trust Flacco on the road?

Crap, is that line gonna move at all or what?

[Capybara]

Adding:

Cincinnati +1 (1.5x)

I heard that Cincy's had a strong week of preparation for this one and I see them making a strong showing against a pretty banged up Steelers team. Steelers hurting on the O-line and down to 3rd string at RB.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Arizona/Minn Under 40.5 (2x)

And hey, got my line drop, so can't puss' out now:

Houston -6.5 (2x)

[Capybara]

All right, let's get some plays in here...

Minnesota -6.5 (2x)

Dallas/Carolina Over 45.5 (1x)

Cleveland +2 (1x)

Tampa Bay +1.5 (1x)

Arizona/Minn Under 40.5 (2x)

Houston -6.5 (2x)

Looks like I weighted these correctly, up 3 units so far today (minus juice) !!

Need my Pats for a great day!

[Capybara]

{Live bet** Jets/NE Under 46.5, +120 (1x)

[Capybara]

Man, do I suck at live betting. Thought the Pats could actually kill a clock for a change -- instead they start with an offensive penalty and then it's Here, tie the game.

Now they're gonna lose too. Fine, they deserve it. Fukkin defense is an embarrassment. May have to just lay off all Pats-related plays for the rest of the season.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Cincinnati +1 (1.5x)

I heard that Cincy's had a strong week of preparation for this one and I see them making a strong showing against a pretty banged up Steelers team. Steelers hurting on the O-line and down to 3rd string at RB.

Just bringing forward tonight's play. Need it now!

Pats fukk me yet again, but I'll take huge win!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Capybara]

Tonight is one of those tough division games that are hard to figure, but here's what I'm feeling and playing:

Detroit/Chicago 1H Under 23.5 (2x)

Detroit/Chicago Under 46.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Screw it, let me add this too, just got a hunch:

Detroit +6.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Detroit/Chicago 1H Under 23.5 (2x)

Detroit/Chicago Under 46.5 (1x)

Detroit +6.5 (1x)

Woo-hoo, perfect four-unit night to finish off the week!

[Capybara]

Just tabulating up... lot of back and forth in Week 7 but at least we came out on top!

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units

Total: 35-31-2, +4.30 units

What a grind this season is!

[Capybara]

On to Week 8...

Thursday plays:

Tampa Bay +6 (2x)

Tampa Bay 1H +3.5 (1x)

I think there are a lot of positive signs for these plays. For one thing, I like the line movement in TB's direction today (I had to use The Greek to find the above lines, they've gone too low in my other books). But even beyond that, I think this is a bit of an overrated vs. underrated matchup. Tampa Bay has had a lot of trouble closing out games, but they are a fairly solid team. Freeman has started to play well of late and has good weapons to throw to, in addition to a decent run game. And their D-line is very solid and I'm thinking should be able to at least contain AP for the most part. Minnesota's offense has not been very dynamic, it's all just AP and Percy. Contain them and you've got a good shot to be in the game. Hey, things could easily bounce Minny's way and they cover, but I just think there's a ton of ways TB gets the cover, so getting 6 points is good value here.

[Capybara]

Tampa Bay +6 (2x)

Tampa Bay 1H +3.5 (1x)

Loooove them Thursday winners!