[Capybara]

Okay, updating from last week... Won my MNF pick, but still had a crappy weekend:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.7 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.3 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units

Total: 14-13-2, +3.25 units

So tonight, definitely not in love with this game, but my gut has been saying that Baltimore's coming off this miniscule week of practice time, coming off a huge emotional win against a hated rival, and how are they going to be all up for this game? Whereas Cleveland gets a chance on national TV to show that they have some skills and aren't the garbage everyone things they are. But one unit only:

Cleveland +12.5 (1x)

May the force be with me.

[Capybara]

Chalk up a unit, nice. Hopefully a solid Week #4 is in store!

Prob be back with some early plays on Friday, because I'll actually be at the Pats game in Buffalo this weekend!

[Filmoz]

Chalk up a unit, nice. Hopefully a solid Week #4 is in store!

Prob be back with some early plays on Friday, because I'll actually be at the Pats game in Buffalo this weekend!

Sup Capy, nice work so far. I was also on Cleveland, but for a massive 20x ($2000). Feels great to cash it, I felt strongly about the play but probably wouldn't have gone so big if I wasn't chasing after losing 10x on the Packers in that fiasco on Monday night. Thankfully it hit, now back to basically even in NFL this season after falling in a massive hole. BOL.

[Capybara]

Sup Capy, nice work so far. I was also on Cleveland, but for a massive 20x ($2000). Feels great to cash it, I felt strongly about the play but probably wouldn't have gone so big if I wasn't chasing after losing 10x on the Packers in that fiasco on Monday night. Thankfully it hit, now back to basically even in NFL this season after falling in a massive hole. BOL.

What's up, Mozer? Long time no speak. Nice f'n hit. You must be pumped that NCAA IS ALMOST BACK! Will be checking to see how you fare, bro. I know I owe you a PM, sorry bout that!

[jakeloftin2186]

where u at today cappy

[Capybara]

Guys, I could not connect today for shit!! I'm at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. I got on to successfully send that one post earlier but that was it!!!!

Couldn't place any plays obviously either. Just all f'd up today, figuratively and literally. :-P. Sucks because I would be about 3-1 today. Fukkin pissed. My own fault though. At least my Pats had a huge win. Hope you guys all crushed the books.

[jakeloftin2186]

anything tonite cat daddy

[Capybara]

Finally home, just made it! I should be fukkin 5-1 this week, still fuming about losing connectivity!

Anyway, I'm on this 6.5-pt teaser tonight:

Dallas +3.5/ Under 48, ties win (2x)

Good luck tonight. Might be back for 2H. Really exhausted though, I could also possibly not even make it through the game!

[Capybara]

Okay, Week #5...

I'm still fuming over not being able to get online last Sunday after I got to the stadium.

Hence, here's the scorecard:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.7 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.3 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units*

Total: 15-14-2, +2.15 units

*For the record, here's what I'd scribbled out and determined to play last Sunday that I could neither get in nor post in here:

Denver -6.5 (2x)
Houston -12.5 (1x) (been on them every single week as seen above)
Atl/Car over 47.5 (1x)
Det -3.5 (1x)

Was also seriously considering playing my Pats at -3.5, another winner, but hadn't decided for sure yet.

Anyway, just had to get that out there. That is all real, I don't bullshit. But it was a GOOD LESSON -- I'm never leaving my betting or posting until I can't necessarily get online again! I'm also putting the sportsbooks' phone numbers in my fukking phone!!

Tonight, taking a shot with:

St. Louis +2.5 -105 (1x)

Arizona's 4-0 should really be more like 2-2. They are a solid team but are getting some wins with smoke and mirrors. I think the Rams' 2-2 is slightly more impressive actually. And they are built to, at least defensively, cause problems for the Cardinals. They usually defend their receivers well, and I'm guessing Chris Long will get some pressure. I'm less confident the Rams will move the ball consistently against that D, BUT this play is still worth a shot: you're getting a home dog with a RARE prime-time appearance, and I can see Fisher having some tricks up his sleeve. Only a unit though.

[Filmoz]

Tonight, taking a shot with:

St. Louis +2.5 -105 (1x)

We're on it together Capy

I'm on em pretty big actually, with a little bit on the ML too.

[Capybara]

We're on it together Capy

I'm on em pretty big actually, with a little bit on the ML too.

Cash that shit! We've been crushing these Thursdays!

Damn, I so wanted to play that Under too, but I get too frightened of those sub-40 numbers! My bad! But I'll take the unit to start things off this week.

[Filmoz]

Cash that shit! We've been crushing these Thursdays!

Damn, I so wanted to play that Under too, but I get too frightened of those sub-40 numbers! My bad! But I'll take the unit to start things off this week.

I was afraid of the under too, after the Cowboys/Bears game. It's a fine line between a strong defensive game that keeps the score low and one that forces big turnovers that lead to scores. But tonight was a sweet sweet cash, made 8+ units on it.

[16johnnymac]

Thax for the 1st half play cashed in 200beans

I was afraid of the under too, after the Cowboys/Bears game. It's a fine line between a strong defensive game that keeps the score low and one that forces big turnovers that lead to scores. But tonight was a sweet sweet cash, made 8+ units on it.

[Filmoz]

Thax for the 1st half play cashed in 200beans

[Capybara]

Okay, let's get some plays booked and recorded early after my clusterfukk last weekend.

Pittsburgh -3 (2x)

I almost feel like I'm getting trapped here. This play just jumps off the page with value! Let's see, first you have an Eagles team that's been the luckiest in the NFL thus far to be 3-1. Yes, they've moved the ball well, but they've made a ton of mistakes they've yet to pay for because of huge breaks going their way. They should be 1-3 and could actually be 0-4. Then you've got a Steelers team coming off an extra week of preparation, staring at 1-3 if they don't right the ship, playing at HOME (they are a different team at home), and getting back Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. That can't be understated. TROY POLAMALU. Guy might be the biggest difference-maker for his team on defense in the whole league. Oh, wait, and also starting running back Rashard Mendenhall! He's probably nowhere close to his best, but still, that's gonna help them. I want to play more than two units here, but I'm trying to stay conservative. (Plus I'm paranoid that since I was correct on all the bets I didn't get to place last Sunday that I'll be wrong on all the ones I do get to place this Sunday! )

[Capybara]

Next:

Houston -7.5 (2x)

My usual capping preference is to look for patterns to reverse, since the pendulum will always swing back toward the middle. However, here's a clear case of a steamroller facing a crippled bunny. I'll take the steamroller, thanks. I've been on Houston every week, they've covered every week (without much difficulty either), and now they face an overmatched opponent. For one thing, I can't see how the Jets will ever get Houston off the field. But let's assume their D does step up... Who are they throwing to on offense, how are they gonna move it? Their run game's been a failure and now they face their toughest D yet. Their starting WRs are now two guys you've never heard of. Their TE is hobbled if he even plays. And their QB is at this moment playing the worst in the NFL (don't even mention the backup QB). I know they got trounced at home last week, so ordinarily this would be a terrible spot to bet against them - in primetime with a chance to redeem themselves. I recognize this. But I'll believe they can redeem themselves and that anyone can stop Houston WHEN I SEE IT. Special teams is the only area that frightens me for this cover.

[Capybara]

Adding:

New Orleans -3 -125 (2x)

Saints right the ship tonight. Should have been on this sooner with lower juice but I'll pay it because I really don't see this losing.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Cleveland/NY Giants Over 43.5 (1x)

Cleveland's showed some signs and has had extra time to work on this game. I say they put up enough for this thing to go over.

[Rawk-]

Adding:

Cleveland/NY Giants Over 43.5 (1x)

Cleveland's showed some signs and has had extra time to work on this game. I say they put up enough for this thing to go over.

Raining in new york. I like the under there

[Capybara]

Raining in new york. I like the under there

Yeah, but no wind -- I don't think it really plays in. But we'll see.

[Capybara]

Man, almost ALL the overs look juicy, but just played this one other:

Baltimore/KC Over 46 (1x)

[Capybara]

Touchdown Steelers!! Offense gonna need to stay sharp like that because fukkin' Polamalu is gone again.

Apologize for that last over play, ugh, horrible. At least the Cleveland one looks like cash!

[Capybara]

Adding:

Cleveland/NY Giants Over 43.5 (1x)

Cleveland's showed some signs and has had extra time to work on this game. I say they put up enough for this thing to go over.

Cashed at halftime!

[Capybara]

​Just added:

San Francisco -10 (1x)

[Capybara]

And:

New England -6 (1x)

New England 1H -3 (1x)

[Capybara]

Tennessee/Minn 2H Under 20.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Fukk it, this too:

Minnesota 2H -2.5 (1x)

[jakeloftin2186]

Nice day cappy looks like u r getting hott

[Capybara]

Okay, let's get some plays booked and recorded early after my clusterfukk last weekend.

Pittsburgh -3 (2x)

Cleveland/NY Giants Over 43.5 (1x)

Baltimore/KC Over 46 (1x)

​

San Francisco -10 (1x)

New England -6 (1x)

New England 1H -3 (1x)

Tennessee/Minn 2H Under 20.5 (1x)

Minnesota 2H -2.5 (1x)

Fukkin Steelers. Should have had a TD before the half, would have made the difference. Oh well. Still positive for the day so far.

Got two units above on the Saints -3. Considering adding some at 3.5... Will post if so.

[Capybara]

Added 2x of New Orleans -3.5 (+100) to the existing 2x of New Orleans -3. They need this one.

[Capybara]

And 1x of New Orleans 1H -3.

[Capybara]

Nice day cappy looks like u r getting hott

Thanks, bud!

[Capybara]

Adding:

New Orleans -3 -125 (2x)

Saints right the ship tonight. Should have been on this sooner with lower juice but I'll pay it because I really don't see this losing.

Added 2x of New Orleans -3.5 (+100) to the existing 2x of New Orleans -3. They need this one.

And 1x of New Orleans 1H -3.

Too close for comfort, but a nice finish!

So including Thursday and Sunday, Week #5 is now at:

8-4, +4.55 units.

Two more units to go with Houston -7.5 tomorrow night (writeup above). Might add some more action but might just leave it alone to ensure a solid week.

[Capybara]

Despite the strong temptation, no further units on Houston -- just leaving my original 2x at -7.5. We stay disciplined in this thread! Mildly concerned with the backdoor cover, a special teams TD, or freakish plays/calls/turnovers.

Could possibly jump on some Live or 2H action I guess.

Good luck to all tonight! Hope we get another humiliating Jets home loss!

[Capybara]

I called it -- the special-teams TD breaks our back, happens every time in those games. Still love the HOU play and would do it again. But glad I kept it to 2 units!

So the week ends 8-5, +2.35 units. Can't complain I guess.