[k13]

To understand how Linemakers make money off the public.

I noticed that they make the most money from Prop Bets. It's 50/50 from Sides and Totals.

Line movement doesn't mean much.
If a team that you like, starts at -7 early in the week then becomes -9 later in the week. Bet early.
If a team that you like, starts at -7 early in week then becomes -5 later in the week. Bet late.

Line movement has been right 60% of the time this year in the nfl.

Points don't really matter that often just pick winners.
You'd rather have a +9 than a +5 right? Everyone always does but the 9 is a loser and the 5 is a winner.

[209Raidernation]

niners can score but how many?

[DOMINATER]

Listen to all that believe, Ihave no reason to lie. Games are fixed.

[DENVERPRODIGY]

i really dont think that the 49ers are going to be able to keep up with the saints although they have a nice D, it just doesnt seem that san fran d is going to be able to hold them down

[Lockitup1x]

The question I want answered is how do you see the saints losing this game? More experience, more talent, better coach... The only person that can lose this game for the saints is brees... The same guy that said breaking marino's record was important and proceeded to run up the score. They have been showing off their offensive firepower all season so please explain to me how you see them coming out flat in this game?

[millflavor]

saints are bitter about what happened last year in seattle and want to prove they can win on the road... they expose the niners secondary

[Chimneyfish]

The Saints are shaping up to be a textbook square playoff pick that involves overvaluing a well-known quarterback who makes big, exciting plays. That's why you'll read a lot of stuff around here like, "The 49ers defense hasn't yet been tested with an offense as good as the Saints'" but are much less likely to see anything like, "The Saints offense hasn't yet been tested with a defense as good as the 49ers, let alone in an outdoor game at the windiest venue in sports." A lot of people are going to be neglecting true home field advantage and the value of a first-round bye.

The fact that the league is a passing league means that the majority of teams now focus on quarterbacks making big passing plays. People seem to misinterpret this trend to mean that any given offensively-focused team is more likely to beat any given defensively-focused team simply because there's a lot of good quarterbacks in the league right now.

[DENVERPRODIGY]

saints are bitter about what happened last year in seattle and want to prove they can win on the road... they expose the niners secondary

i agree, but easier said than done but i do think the saints will beat the 49ers by at least 10

[Chimneyfish]

The question I want answered is how do you see the saints losing this game?

I see them losing because the Saints are only slightly better than the 49ers on a neutral field, but not enough to cover the home field advantage of the Stick.

It's easy to appreciate all the touchdowns being scored by an offensive team. It's not as intuitive to appreciate the touchdowns that never happen due to the efforts of a defensive team.

[DENVERPRODIGY]

I see them losing because the Saints are only slightly better than the 49ers on a neutral field, but not enough to cover the home field advantage of the Stick.

It's easy to appreciate all the touchdowns being scored by an offensive team. It's not as intuitive to appreciate the touchdowns that never happen due to the efforts of a defensive team.

i agree that san fran has a good defense, but can you please point out to me what teams san fran has played these season and held them down that we see in the playoffs? beside the giants because they werent playing good when they matched up

[Chimneyfish]

That's my point: people will come up with a reason to be skeptical of the 49er's performance this season but neglect that the same criticism applies equally to the Saints. As far as schedule strength- the Saints are one of only two teams to have played a softer schedule than the Niners this year (SF played the 29th toughest schedule and NO the 31st).

[Lockitup1x]

I see them losing because the Saints are only slightly better than the 49ers on a neutral field, but not enough to cover the home field advantage of the Stick.

It's easy to appreciate all the touchdowns being scored by an offensive team. It's not as intuitive to appreciate the touchdowns that never happen due to the efforts of a defensive team.

Im not trying to take any credit away from the 49ers but there is a reason all 3 favorites to win the Super Bowl are basically built the same way.

[209Raidernation]

how can 49ers win a playoff game with alex smith? there is too much pressure for him to carry this once proud franchise, i dont see how alex can beat the saints, alex considered a draft bust is having a solid year only this year anyways he is a mediocre qb and just like the baltimore game he will be forced to make a decision, when he sees all this blitz coming after him, he will flashback to that baltimore game and remember oh shit i might as well take a sack. this will be a hard fought game, 9ers defense will be pumped up but at the end new orleans exposes 9ers secondary and 9ers qb is also exposed.

[DENVERPRODIGY]

how can 49ers win a playoff game with alex smith? there is too much pressure for him to carry this once proud franchise, i dont see how alex can beat the saints, alex considered a draft bust is having a solid year only this year anyways he is a mediocre qb and just like the baltimore game he will be forced to make a decision, when he sees all this blitz coming after him, he will flashback to that baltimore game and remember oh shit i might as well take a sack. this will be a hard fought game, 9ers defense will be pumped up but at the end new orleans exposes 9ers secondary and 9ers qb is also exposed.

i agree that was nice hit it straight on

[Chimneyfish]

how can 49ers win a playoff game with alex smith?

Because he plays for a team that only gives up an average of 11 points at home.

[Scorpion]

Love SF +3.5

[QuangX]

i agree that san fran has a good defense, but can you please point out to me what teams san fran has played these season and held them down that we see in the playoffs? beside the giants because they werent playing good when they matched up

Eagles_healthy VIck
Cincy
New York Giants
Pitt
Detroit
Close game with Baltimore- felt cheated, two td were called back

5 of these team were or are in the playoffs.

Our division is not weak either, Seatle and Arizona finshed 8-8, 8-7, and rams,

But all out division team have beaten a good team ie: rams over saints

Zona and Seattle one beated Baltimore one almost. Don't look down upon the 49ers division lost

[209Raidernation]

Weak divsion=sf,az,sea,st l. Fact last year seachickens losing record in playoffs. U must be a frisco fan.truth hurts sf is weakling divsion period

[209Raidernation]

To scorpion:dear scorpion if saints win will u give me 100sbr points? Love, saints-3.5

[Mr Handicapable]

Because he plays for a team that only gives up an average of 11 points at home.

Roethslisberger was on 1 leg in SF so the 49ers faced 2 elite (if Romo is elite) QBs at home this season.

Romo 345 yds 2 tds/O ints & 27 pts
Eli 311 yds 2 tds/2 ints & 20 pts

SF has a good defense but its not exactly the 85 Bears. Two things being overlooked in this game. One is the 49ers have been settling for too many fg's all season because of their limited offense and two is that the Saints are 6th in the NFL in rushing. They're not just a soft dome team. Sean Payton/Brees feature Sproles on the LBs to soften up the defense and even though its square as hell the Saints win by a TD minimum.

[The Inevitable]

Denver line moved after the opening of +9. The public went big on Denver, and they still covered. Sometimes there's a fix and sometimes shite happens. Not all games are fixed. Or better yet, I should say not all games have trap lines.

[str]

Only been outdoors once since Oct.

They were -3 at Tenn.

Now - 3 1/2 at S.F.

The only mind game is in the heads of the players.

[Mr. Lucky]

49ers will win and shock most here. Taking ML and 49ers to win the super bowl.

[darkhat]

there have been many guys on sbr that tried tracking reverse line moves and went busto, do a search and see for yourself

reverse line moves mean nothing and you will lose money following it, just because it happened in the bama game does not mean it wasnt a coincidence


you know how people get fulled by reverse line movement? because they dont really know how much money is really on either side, there might be a lot of money on the handicap on one side, but there might be more money on the other side ml, and also books give you a % on number of bets, they dont tell you % of money on the side so you dont really know how much money is on a side, 60% of bets might be on one side but that may represent only 30% of the money, you think its a coincidence that sites like pinnacle wont give out % figures for money or number of bets?


also you are forgetting that sites like pinnacle dont move their lines along with every bet or along with other bookmakers, pinnacle traders look at who is making a bet, if he is a bad or average bettor they move the line little or none at all, they only adjust the lines when their good/professional clients place wagers, which makes reverse line moves, a product of who is betting at pinnacle, but again you cant idenify real reverse line moves because you dont have true/meaningful data, because books dont give those out

also you look at % from 5dimes and dont realize that 5dimes more likely clones pinnacle lines and does not really adjust lines relative to the action they are receiving

again, claiming line movement is proof of a fix is simply as ridiculous a statement as any made on this site

exactly.

[Mr Handicapable]

Way too much talk about line movement on sbr? Look at the Pack/Giants game....Aaron Ross suffered a possible concussion vs the Falcons and is probably the Giants best cover corner. Ross's playing status has 100000x more to do with the outcome than the spread but its barely mentioned. Just handicap the game to the best of your ability and try to find a fair line compared to the one you imagined before you ever heard what it was.

[Big Bear]

i have an idea fellas

why not bet on Saints ML and 49ers +4?

saints are probably going to win this game by a field goal.

[Big Bear]

worst case scenario you eat the juice right?

[Ambition]

Weak divsion=sf,az,sea,st l. Fact last year seachickens losing record in playoffs. U must be a frisco fan.truth hurts sf is weakling divsion period

I'm not a 49ers fan but, coming from an Oakland Raiders fan who probably has arguably the worst division in football as well!

[Ambition]

But getting back to the point of the thread, this game comes down to one thing and one thing only. Can the 49ers score TOUCHDOWNS in the red zone rather than FIELD GOALS! The 49ers can't get into the end zone and if they settle for field goals in this one they will lose and it will be by more than 4.

[Big Bear]

i have followed the 49ers closely all season.


they are not a bad team. they would be in the playoffs no matter what division they played in. They are very similar to the Baltimore Ravens but they play better on the road than the Ravens. The only real weakness on the 49ers is their inability to pass the football. They rely heavily on their run game and defense, if they ever got behind 14 points its game over.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

If the 49ers are going to beat the New Orleans Saints this Saturday,they're going to need big play's from their big rookies.They're going to need Aldon Smith to sack Drew Brees.They're going to need Kendall Hunter to share carries with Frank Gore, who may or may not be healthy.They're going to need fullback Bruce Miller to block for both running backs, and they're going to need cornerback Chris Culliver to cover the Saints' top wide receiver, Marques Colston, one-on-one frequently.Do you really think they have a snowball chance beat the Saints?? BIG NO !!!! 49ers offense won’t be able to keep up!! Everything must come to an end Jim Harbaugh?,even if New Orleans Saints travels to Candlestick on soggy grass, running inside a dome (also home field) on ‘flubber’ is easy??.Even if Brees has to be forced to throw,it won't matter,The game will be close in the 1st half but Saints make the right adjustments in the 2nd half.The 49ers have a good defense and running game,however if the Saints can hold Gore to 80 yds or less and make the 49er one dimensional like I suspect they will,the Saints will win – Saints running game is the most underrated in the NFL. Sprolie,Thomas,and Ivory all have different skills and Payton will throw in a wrinkle here and there,Brees and his receiver corp dominate the game!!! need I say more SBR members

[freakydave]

Line movement has been right 60% of the time this year in the nfl. Points don't really matter that often just pick winners. You'd rather have a +9 than a +5 right? Everyone always does but the 9 is a loser and the 5 is a winner.

60% of the time this season right?

[DENVERPRODIGY]

If the 49ers are going to beat the New Orleans Saints this Saturday,they're going to need big play's from their big rookies.They're going to need Aldon Smith to sack Drew Brees.They're going to need Kendall Hunter to share carries with Frank Gore, who may or may not be healthy.They're going to need fullback Bruce Miller to block for both running backs, and they're going to need cornerback Chris Culliver to cover the Saints' top wide receiver, Marques Colston, one-on-one frequently.Do you really think they have a snowball chance beat the Saints?? BIG NO !!!! 49ers offense won’t be able to keep up!! Everything must come to an end Jim Harbaugh?,even if New Orleans Saints travels to Candlestick on soggy grass, running inside a dome (also home field) on ‘flubber’ is easy??.Even if Brees has to be forced to throw,it won't matter,The game will be close in the 1st half but Saints make the right adjustments in the 2nd half.The 49ers have a good defense and running game,however if the Saints can hold Gore to 80 yds or less and make the 49er one dimensional like I suspect they will,the Saints will win – Saints running game is the most underrated in the NFL. Sprolie,Thomas,and Ivory all have different skills and Payton will throw in a wrinkle here and there,Brees and his receiver corp dominate the game!!! need I say more SBR members

i agree my man but in all reality i dont think the 49ers have a chance they WILL NOT hold the saints offense it might b a close game at halftime possibly but after that the 49ers cant throw the ball when they have too and we all know if alex smith gets put in a situation where he has to pass the ball its not gonna be good for san fran

[k13]

60% of the time this season right?

What I'm saying is majority of people are "If this line hits +7.5 I'm taking x team" but if its +6.5 they don't want it anymore.

Getting a better number on the losing side won't make you a winner long term. The spread does not matter often enough.


Just pick winners and stop worrying about the spread. Maybe if the line is super high that's a different matter.

[k13]

Don't forget about the Special Teams.



ROAD TRIP BY THE NUMBERS

Team	Home	Away	Change
Packers	40.1	29.9	-25.4%
Saints	41.6	27.3	-34.4%
Patriots	30.8	33.4	8.4%
Lions	30.4	28.9	-4.9%
Panthers	24.3	26.1	7.4%
Chargers	26.1	24.7	-5.4%
Falcons	29.5	20.8	-29.5%
Eagles	26.6	22.9	-13.9%
Giants	23.3	26.0	11.6%
Texans	22.1	25.5	15.4%
49ers	27.6	19.9	-27.9%