[QuangX]

Im totally mindfck to what vegas is trying to pull. I am a believer of point shaving.If you disagree just GTFO!, Im Jking, Im up for discussion, No Drama Please.

Public is pounding New Orleans, whether it Moneyline or Spread,

Spread is moving in favor of SF, +4 now.

The question is, Is Vegas trying to burried the Sharps?

They can let the public win big one game, because they know, they can get it back later?

While Sharps, it a harder road to pull their money?

After the Bama game, Dont give me the BS that Vegas dont try to mess with your head. Only a few and Sharps profited that game, They buried the Public 20ft deep. JOrdan Jefferson looked like he got paid a huge amount to throw the game away with his head coach.

Now DIscuss

[john230]

Saints are a public team right now becuase they have been blowing people out. Public feeds on that. But this is a road game against a pretty good defense. However the bottom line is do you want your cash on Brees or Smith. Most of the public will take Brees but that 3.5/4 points is tempting to take.

[smoke a bowl]

Vegas dont do dick but copy a # from the offshore books. Fact.

[flocko76]

if the public is pounding the saints (-3.5), the line should move to san fran +4

[baskets]

Amazing to think Saints went in against the Seahawks last year and got blasted. Amazing to see how that was done.

I know Saints are playing great right now, but the Niners are truly legit team unlike the Hawks of last year. This could be one of those games where the Niners punch the Saints in the mouth.

[baskets]

+200 is pretty impressive

[tokio]

Niners have been just horrible in the redzone. If they keep settling for FGs instead of TDs, I dont see how they win or cover against the Saints

[dredmahawkus]

if the public is pounding the saints (-3.5), the line should move to san fran +4

thats what I was thinking......if the line moved to 2.5 that would be messed up! but the line opened at -3 they pound NO and it moves to -4....sounds normal to me.

NO has a harder time on the road.....if the game was in New Orleans the line would have been the same as the Detroit game around 10.

[baskets]

-10 against sf.... man, that's hard to see

[QuangX]

I guarantee, the line will probably move to 3-3.5 again.If it moves to 4.5 or more, I won't touch the game. The Saints have been blowing people out, but remember this is the same team on the road losing to the Rams

[SportsMushroom]

how is it mind games? the line is moving along with the money


just another bitter gambler crying fix


if sbr banned anyone who cried fix they would get read of the worst gamblers on this forum

[QuangX]

how is it mind games? the line is moving along with the money


just another bitter gambler crying fix

Tell that to the BAMA game!

But right now it moving toward the money, but i can see alot of people taking 49ers moneyline too, It might come down to a fg game like last year, BUt this is a total different 49er team

[SportsMushroom]

Tell that to the BAMA game!

But right now it moving toward the money, but i can see alot of people taking 49ers moneyline too, It might come down to a fg game like last year, BUt this is a total different 49er team

there have been many guys on sbr that tried tracking reverse line moves and went busto, do a search and see for yourself

reverse line moves mean nothing and you will lose money following it, just because it happened in the bama game does not mean it wasnt a coincidence


you know how people get fulled by reverse line movement? because they dont really know how much money is really on either side, there might be a lot of money on the handicap on one side, but there might be more money on the other side ml, and also books give you a % on number of bets, they dont tell you % of money on the side so you dont really know how much money is on a side, 60% of bets might be on one side but that may represent only 30% of the money, you think its a coincidence that sites like pinnacle wont give out % figures for money or number of bets?


also you are forgetting that sites like pinnacle dont move their lines along with every bet or along with other bookmakers, pinnacle traders look at who is making a bet, if he is a bad or average bettor they move the line little or none at all, they only adjust the lines when their good/professional clients place wagers, which makes reverse line moves, a product of who is betting at pinnacle, but again you cant idenify real reverse line moves because you dont have true/meaningful data, because books dont give those out

also you look at % from 5dimes and dont realize that 5dimes more likely clones pinnacle lines and does not really adjust lines relative to the action they are receiving

again, claiming line movement is proof of a fix is simply as ridiculous a statement as any made on this site

[QuangX]

there have been many guys on sbr that tried tracking reverse line moves and went busto, do a search and see for yourself

reverse line moves mean nothing and you will lose money following it, just because it happened in the bama game does not mean it wasnt a coincidence


you know how people get fulled by reverse line movement? because they dont really know how much money is really on either side, there might be a lot of money on the handicap on one side, but there might be more money on the other side ml, and also books give you a % on number of bets, they dont tell you % of money on the side so you dont really know how much money is on a side, 60% of bets might be on one side but that may represent only 30% of the money, you think its a coincidence that sites like pinnacle wont give out % figures for money or number of bets?


also you are forgetting that sites like pinnacle dont move their lines along with every bet or along with other bookmakers, pinnacle traders look at who is making a bet, if he is a bad or average bettor they move the line little or none at all, they only adjust the lines when their good/professional clients place wagers, which makes reverse line moves, a product of who is betting at pinnacle, but again you cant idenify real reverse line moves because you dont have true/meaningful data, because books dont give those out

also you look at % from 5dimes and dont realize that 5dimes more likely clones pinnacle lines and does not really adjust lines relative to the action they are receiving

again, claiming line movement is proof of a fix is simply as ridiculous a statement as any made on this site

Your right, Not all games that goes reversed line are a good bet, only one's that is major, like the Alabama game. Yes the percentage given on other web site are what the public are favoring an amount of action but not the X amount of money, That when you gotta throw in your theory.(watching and looking at web sites, to get an idea of) The whole world was on LSU, It was a burial game. Again im not up for a debate and I respect your stand point, but an argument and disrespecting each other will lead us nowhere. SO moving on( I appreciate your opinon),

[k13]

NO has a harder time on the road.....if the game was in New Orleans the line would have been the same as the Detroit game around 10.

They are only +7 vs Green Bay

[DA_MOSS]

Saints by 7+.. easy

[agendaman]

lsu/alabama opened pk.or even lsu -1 at spots/ok closed at bama -2.5/its not nuclear physics to see where the money went/now this saints are 0-4 in their last 4 road playoff games/i take the 3.5 pts. clean out of the equation/how bet ml also this/i bet it yesterday denver 30 n.e.24/giants 28 g.b.24/ravens win but barely/phuk what other people bet/who do YOU think will win

[jjgold]

SF sharp side

[YouMama]

I think saints blow them out ... what happened last year has to be weighing on them, its take no prisoners ... even thogh taking the saints out of the dome setting scares me a little, but its San Fran, its like 75 degrees at 8pm

[kmarinouofm]

Niners have been just horrible in the redzone. If they keep settling for FGs instead of TDs, I dont see how they win or cover against the Saints

thats my issue too... Baltimore showed NFL teams the way to beat SF

[InTheDrink]

quang you're an idiot!

[thebestthereis]

thats my issue too... Baltimore showed NFL teams the way to beat SF

Bad spot for SF. Nobody wins at Baltimore at night. The 2007 Patriots should of lost too. And I am not a SF fan, being bias.

[Ninersnut]

Saints are a public team right now becuase they have been blowing people out. Public feeds on that. But this is a road game against a pretty good defense. However the bottom line is do you want your cash on Brees or Smith. Most of the public will take Brees but that 3.5/4 points is tempting to take.

This should read do you want your money on Brees or Niners D.

[stripemister]

Quang: I don't know about SF/NO game, but I strongly feel that the coach of LSU was involve with the loss to Alabama. There's no way in college ball that one team can shut down another team 100% without help. And, help Alabama had plenty of help. It was as if Alabama new every play of LSU before the ball was snapped. The rubber head QB of LSU is to stupid to have known what was going on. Every play was given to him from the side lines, and when the ball was snapped he was like a deer looking at headlight's, and stating to himself where in the name of hell did all these Alabama defender's come from. There was to much $$$$ out there on Bama, and the coach of LSU couldn't make a mistake in letting Jefferson, and company run play's that would result in a score. Not even a field goal he couldn't afford to have let happen. And, he made sure he kept his team behind the 50 yeard line. $$$ talk's, and b/s walk's.

[Cup Bound]

Yes...I am a noob...but this is what I see in this game

SF=Best Front 7 in football...#1 against the rush (stopping Spoles and Ivory is key) DB's can hang in especilly with pressure on Brees. Outdoors on grass in a hostile environment will slow down Saints

NO=Not half the team on the road as they are at home. Will focus on stopping Gore out of the backfield and will make Alex throw the ball. NO will cover short to medium routes cuz Alex can't throw it further than 20 yards accurately, and will force SF into their FG game.

Long and short....IMO u47 is the play here. The public thinks Brees will throw for 5 TD's but most have not witnessed the SF Def.

[Jonah]

I wish the Niners played either green bay, the Saints or new England...even Buffalo in reg season so we could have seen how they look against a quality passing
attack. Okay not buffalo, really. Can't delete that on phone. Looks like that d is definitely capable of giving up over 20 when up against okay Offenses...see Dallas, eagles and Giants.

[uhuhahah]

SF +3.5 Over.

[edawg]

Line at saints-3 is right on. Since the saints have covered so many in a row is why it gets pushed up to -4. Think the saints will win but at -4 or more truly a 50/50 game! good luck to all

[QuangX]

SF sharp side

If the Rams can beat the Saints at Home, The Niners have a pretty damn good chance. However, JJ, Is Vegas trying to bury the Sharps First game of the Playoffs.

[209Raidernation]

i think sf will be fired up to play. sf lost in preseason game and hc payton wanted a call from hc harbaugh on how to play the game, and payton got no answer, so in that game saints blitze da hell out of alex smith and 49ers lost 20 to 3, but that was a preseason game, now this saturday will be for real, i think niners will adjust to new orleans blitz heavy scheme but i dont see how alex smith will adjust to that, baltimore blitzed alex smith all game long and look what happened, any ways just my 2 cents. i think new orleans rolls to a victory and cover late in 3rd or 4th quarter 38 new orleans, sf-23. hey just my opinion dont kill me with all the bull****

[QuangX]

i think sf will be fired up to play. sf lost in preseason game and hc payton wanted a call from hc harbaugh on how to play the game, and payton got no answer, so in that game saints blitze da hell out of alex smith and 49ers lost 20 to 3, but that was a preseason game, now this saturday will be for real, i think niners will adjust to new orleans blitz heavy scheme but i dont see how alex smith will adjust to that, baltimore blitzed alex smith all game long and look what happened, any ways just my 2 cents. i think new orleans rolls to a victory and cover late in 3rd or 4th quarter 38 new orleans, sf-23. hey just my opinion dont kill me with all the bull****

You underestimate the 49er Oline, Two First Round Lineman, and New Orleans former Center, I think if anyone familiarwith the D, He is

[GunShard]

To understand how Linemakers make money off the public.

I noticed that they make the most money from Prop Bets. It's 50/50 from Sides and Totals.

Line movement doesn't mean much.
If a team that you like, starts at -7 early in the week then becomes -9 later in the week. Bet early.
If a team that you like, starts at -7 early in week then becomes -5 later in the week. Bet late.

[209Raidernation]

i dont underestimate anything, this is the playoffs and anything can happen,but brees can play on the road he will thrive playing in sf brees onced played in sd, anyways sf has conservative offense and good pass and run d but secondary of sf will be put to test, brees will carve up that secondary, the question is will sf be able to hang in there with new orleans offensively? my thought is no, sf's game plan is simple, chew clock with runnig plays, play action boot short passes, take a few shots downfield other than that their offense is vanilla, the new orleans d has to step up big, on saturday good football weather is the case, so again my 2cents is new orleans will try to strike early and often and if they do can sf offense match that?

[Dave ATS]

Try not to over think this game. Saints have a bad rep on away games this year that is not warranted. Forget last year, they were very banged up when they went to Seattle. It is now this year and they will move on. Just cap the game. I took the Saints at 3 and never had a doubt. Why do you think it came off the 3 so fast? From Oct 2 to Nov 13, the Saints played 5 out of 7 games on the road in that stretch and this was where 2 of their losses came from. Hard part of a schedule for any team. Their last loss, Oct 30th...that should ring some bells, just my opinion.

[GamblerSpirit]

They should have lost to the Titans.. People really will understand how night and day this team is away from their dome turf. The horrible part is the Niners barely score any points themselves.