[dozer]

You take kansas tonight.


82% of the public i consider to be retarded, so this makes sense.

[PRiiMO]

whats your reasoning though?

[warriorfan707]

I was actually thinking Kansas or no play on this one...

[LordCC]

My guess is the line was very slow to start with, and thus it looked fishy. Since the public is on Kansas and it's a prime time game in Kansas St., the thinking is to side with them.

I have heard that the books are wanting people to play Kansas, so I am not sure what I am going to do as I have been burned a few times by Kansas St. this year.

[dozer]

Um, the fact the line is 6, was 4, and should have started at 12. The fact kansas st needs this. The fact that their building is nuts. The fact kansas has two key players out. Do what you will, but vegas doesnt lose games where they set a stupid line out there, the public jumps on it as easy money.... So much that it went up 2 already, probably 3 by game. Meanwhile i sit here laughing because i know i am getting more and more points when they wont even be needed.

[dozer]

I am not saying k st is good, they are not. I am saying that tonight they are better than kansas

[heleanth]

Last night, the line came out at Kansas -3 1/2. Now up to -6 at some books. Looks like the books are looking for Kansas St. money. This game is always an absolute coin flip, regardless of who has the better record. I think Kansas wins, just based on the fact that they have only one loss and that was to Texas in a game where they lead (by 6 or 8, I think) at halftime and absolutely did not show up after halftime. Otherwise, they would be unbeaten. But who knows if the Jayhawks will cover the points.... GL to all.

[Wiggums5]

Um, the fact the line is 6, was 4, and should have started at 12. The fact kansas st needs this. The fact that their building is nuts. The fact kansas has two key players out. Do what you will, but vegas doesnt lose games where they set a stupid line out there, the public jumps on it as easy money.... So much that it went up 2 already, probably 3 by game. Meanwhile i sit here laughing because i know i am getting more and more points when they wont even be needed.

stupid reasoning...k state has needed every single conference game after losing 4 out of their first 5 and what have they done...3-2 with a terrible loss last game...Kansas will not lose this game although you may cover the spread.

[wquine]

staying a million miles away from this one!

[LordCC]

Thanks for the write up & explanation Dozer, as that is what in the back of my head I was thinking too. I may hold my nose and make a small play on Kansas St. now.

[BernardMadoff]

So no bet has ever won with public over 80% on a side? Get out.

[PRiiMO]

i was wondering why the line was so low. i had it just over 10.

[Hoja Verdes]

The OP is being a little cocky, but he's right...in principle. People who bet Kansas State in games like this make money gambling long-term...people who bet Kansas in spots like this lose money long-term. It's as simple as that. KU may very well blow them out of their home gym tonight, but don't be the least bit surprised if KU gets an early lead of about 10 points and holds it for most of the game, then KState creeps back up and sneaks in the backdoor to lose by 3. I'd expect a relatively low-scoring game, something like 67-64. At the same time, if KU hits their stride early and KState tries to play uptempo, then it will be more like 80-64.

If you are incorrigible and MUST bet KU, go ahead and grab the -5.5 b/c it will definitely go to 6 in the next hour or so. But know that you should have pounced this morning when it was 4.5. If you're gonna go contrarian and take the home dog, i'd wait and try to get 6.5. Word to the wise: Do NOT bet the KU moneyline at -235ish. If you don't have the balls to give 5.5 points, you're better off not betting it.

[jonblaze2424]

Just because the line seems fishy doesnt mean ish.... I believe it was last week, hofstra played at georgia st... Hofstra was the better team BY FAR and they were getting a point against a pretty weak g state team... 89 percent of public was on hofstra and guess what? Hofstra smoked em... So your point doesnt really make sense

[EasyHustlin]

Selby is out for Kansas and that is a GOOD thing for them. Anyone who has watched them play the last 5 games knows this. They've been so much more efficient and have averaged 89 points a game while he's been out . Who's going to stop the Morrii, Curtis Kelly? And as pointed out, KState has already had several "must wins" and they have flopped over and over. Couldn't even handle lowly Colorado. Meanwhile, this game is absolutely a must win for Kansas, who are still playing to tie Texas for the B12 championship. Thanks for the advice but I still like Kansas to win by more than 6.

[Tklane21]

Dozer, I respect you as a capper, but sometimes you have to quit looking for traps around every corner. At the end of the day Kansas is far superior and if Vegas wants to hang to a hope that KSU upsets the public then that is their prerogative.

[HoulihansTX]

So what about the people who took Texas A&M +1 @home vs. Texas, after they were completely outclasses oi the road?

Nice job for those idiots.

[Romanov]

Robinson is also out.

Since the beginning of the Big 12 KU is 34-2 against K-State

[Serbone]

You take kansas tonight.


82% of the public i consider to be retarded, so this makes sense.

Not a very wise strategy to simply go against "the public".
The public was on The Green Bay Packers.
Yesterday, they were on Arizona @ AZ St, Minnesota @ IA, a bunch of other winners.
You do not know where these figures come from, there are different sources, (offshore, Sportsbook Spy, etc) and you do not know how much money comes from pros, large cartels, wise guys...
YOU are the public.
Yes, KU is missing 2 key players, KState is a home conference revenge dog with some talent. They are desperate, they might cover to get into the NCAA's. I went light on KU, nervous about it, K State is struggling, and it is fun to watch the K State coach es-plode when things go wrong.
But dont make a bet just because you see one team has a lot of action.
Going against the higher % bet team makes you feel you are a "sharp" and the others are "squares"?

[BigDofBA]

I like K-State to cover. They might even win the game. This is their season tonight against their arch rival. Their gym will be rockin'.

I don't think this KU team is as good as people think they are either. They have been hot lately but some of their blowout wins have come against the likes of Iowa State and Texas Tech. Those teams suck. Mizzou hasn't won a conference road game either.

KU lost a lot of talent off of last year's team, I don't see this as a championship type squad. People are quick to forget about their struggles at home to the likes of USC, UCLA, and Nebraska. UCLA played KU within 1 and Nebraska played KU within 3. Both of those games were in Lawrence.

I think KU should be about a 4-5 point favorite. If K-State gets to +7, I'll put money down on it. I'm just waiting it out at this point.

Oh yeah, KU has two players out with injury.

I could be totally wrong but I have a feeling K-State gives it everything tonight in front of their crowd. I think this game is a fight.

[EasyHustlin]

I don't think this KU team is as good as people think they are either.

I thought that up until a few weeks ago. I made a killing fading KU early in the season against UCLA, USC, Nebraska, and recently Texas. But have you seen them the last 5 games? Offensively they are one of the most efficient teams I've seen. I wouldn't go as far as to call them the best in the country but they are damn close.

[LockPickMaster]

I like K-State to cover. They might even win the game. This is their season tonight against a rival. Their gym will be rockin'. I don't think this KU team is as good as people think they are either.

Umm, KU is no.1 in four factors to winning on kenpom.

[Hoja Verdes]

Not a very wise strategy to simply go against "the public".
The public was on The Green Bay Packers.
Yesterday, they were on Arizona @ AZ St, Minnesota @ IA, a bunch of other winners.
You do not know where these figures come from, there are different sources, (offshore, Sportsbook Spy, etc) and you do not know how much money comes from pros, large cartels, wise guys..
YOU are the public.
Yes, KU is missing 2 key players, KState is a home conference revenge dog with some talent. They might cover. I went light on KU. K State is struggling, and it is fun to watch the K State coach es-plode when things go wrong.
But dont make a bet just because you see one team has a lot of action.
Going against the higher % bet team makes you feel you are a "sharp" and the others are "squares"?

Sorry man, I don't necessarily agree with dozer, but...this post is straight up retarded. "es-plode"? really? If you don't think there's a massive free-for-all public gangbang on KU tonight, you should rethink your decision to gamble. This is a full blown square orgy game.

[Serbone]

Sorry man, I don't necessarily agree with dozer, but...this post is straight up retarded. "es-plode"? really? If you don't think there's a massive free-for-all public gangbang on KU tonight, you should rethink your decision to gamble. This is a full blown square orgy game.

Watch the K State coach during timeouts... he is hilarious.
I laugh at those who think others are "squares" because they went against the team more heavily wagered upon.
Yeah, you are a BIG "sharp". Everyone is trembling. They are "squares".

[BigDofBA]

Umm, KU is no.1 in four factors to winning on kenpom.

Yeah, KU is good and I respect the kenpom system. With that said, KU is always good. I just don't think this is a dominate national title type team. It's very possible for them to not cover a 6.5 spread on the road against an arch rival whose season is on the line.

Teams get upset on the road all of the time.

I think KU wins but I think it comes down to the final minutes and I think it's very possible that K-State could pull the upset. I'm not calling K-State +6 a lock by any means so don't flame me if KU wins buy double digits. I'm just sharing my thoughts and angles on the game.

If it was just as easy as some people made it seem, everyone would make money betting on sports. There is a reason books make money. A lot of these "easy money" games lose. Sure the public wins from time to time but a lot of the time they don't. People can say, yeah but the Packers covered blah blah blah and I can give 10 examples of teams that looked easy and didn't cover.

The line started low for a reason.... It's no guarantee K-State covers but I like that side as of now.

[Romanov]

KU wins by 5

[BigDofBA]

KU wins by 5

I think the line should be 4-5.

If you got KU at 3.5 I like the play. If you got K-State at +6 or +6.5 I like the play as well.

[Stick23]

KU wins by 5

Well the line moved to 7 now, at least on bodog

[LockPickMaster]

Well the line moved to 7 now, at least on bodog

Gonna wait for +10

[gwiz]

Just because the line seems fishy doesnt mean ish.... I believe it was last week, hofstra played at georgia st... Hofstra was the better team BY FAR and they were getting a point against a pretty weak g state team... 89 percent of public was on hofstra and guess what? Hofstra smoked em... So your point doesnt really make sense

there are many differences between tonight and the hofstra game on a saturday afternoon surrounded by all those games not to mention the team names.

just saying be careful on how you do comparisons

[gwiz]

I also don't agree that people are retarded for liking the obvious side

[linedrivr]

It is strange Vegas is willing to side with Kansas St @ +5 to +6. It's a head scratcher to say the least. Maybe they know something we don't. Kansas has been playing well and Kansas State really hasn't been of late. It's generally wise to side with Vegas but boy are the following stats hard to overlook.

Kansas is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Kansas State

Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas

Kansas State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Kansas

Kansas is 42 - 2 SU verses Kansas State over the last 44 meetings

Kansas is 26 - 1 SU verses Kansas State in Manhattan

[HoulihansTX]

I got -4.

Good luck to those coming in late with -5.5/6

[LockPickMaster]

I got -4. Good luck to those coming in late with -5.5/6

Lucky bastard

[WestyBONE]

Not sure how this will end, but I pounded the -3.5 KU first half..