1. 03-14-24 08:27 AM #316
    usma1992
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    Some big games today... 5*

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    3:00 PM TCU 62 HOUSTON 78 140 -10 137.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    6:30 PM NIAGARA 66 MARIST 68 134 1 129.0 Home Plus 3* Too Close
    7:00 PM KANSAS ST 62 IOWA ST 74 136 -6.5 132.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    9:00 PM ST JOSEPHS 75 RIDER 73 149 0 129.5 Too Close Over 4*
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  2. 03-15-24 12:12 PM #317
    usma1992
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    This is my honest assessment of the Rider game. So the Rider bet was way off last night... but here is my take. The average possessions for St.Joes is 50.5 with my (proprietary) points per shot of 1.28 which is different from normal PPS slightly which equates to 76.18. The average possessions for Rider is 60 with my proprietary points per shot of 1.21 which equates to 72.6. So the obvious question is what happened?
    Was the pace of play that bad? St. Joes had 52 shots and Rider had 58 shots. If you multiply that by their average pps, they come up with 66.56 points and 70 points for a rough total of 137. So even taking into account... less shot totals then normal... they still hit the over.

    However, both teams shot below 30% which is crazy. 3-13 from 3 Point range versus 2-15 from 3 Point range.

    So the next question is whether their defenses are that good. I looked at all the defensive statistics and their defenses aren't great... average at best. So my final analysis they both just couldn't hit a thing ... not a bad bet... they just both sucked. This is what I do on games that way off.

    I stand by my bet. This is type of bet that I just chalk up to gambling... I make zero adjustments and don't even consider any adjustments.

    Hopefully this is the type of analysis that keeps me successful.

    Dave
    Last edited by usma1992; 03-15-24 at 12:50 PM.
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  3. 03-15-24 12:12 PM #318
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    2:30 PM WISCONSIN 73 NORTHWESTERN 74 147 4 136.0 Home Plus 4* Too Close
    3:00 PM MIDDLE TENN ST 67 W KENTUCKY 78 145 -6 147.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    6:30 PM ST JOSEPHS 74 QUINNIPIAC 77 151 -2 136.0 Too Close Over 4*
    7:00 PM TEXAS TECH 59 HOUSTON 77 137 -9 132.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    9:30 PM NC STATE 66 VIRGINIA 71 137 -2.5 121.5 Too Close Over 4*
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  4. 03-15-24 01:31 PM #319
    Neek762
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    Also, weird shit happens in March. Line manipulation going on factored in with human error in high importance games!
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  5. 03-16-24 07:46 AM #320
    usma1992
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    Both 5* hit again. UVA OT game ... I take as a loss 2-3 yesterday. Here are todays bets...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    1:00 PM MISSISSIPPI ST 65 AUBURN 78 143 -7.5 143.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    6:00 PM IOWA ST 61 HOUSTON 72 133 -5 121.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    7:30 PM ST JOSEPHS 75 FAIRFIELD 76 151 -2.5 128.5 Too Close Over 4*
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  6. 03-16-24 08:13 AM #321
    usma1992
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    Anybody still out there other than NEEK and RMLogic...

    Dave
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  7. 03-16-24 09:32 AM #322
    acehole
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  8. 03-16-24 10:22 AM #323
    Yensel
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    Following daily. Thanks, Dave.
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  9. 03-16-24 10:27 AM #324
    Neek762
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Both 5* hit again. UVA OT game ... I take as a loss 2-3 yesterday. Here are todays bets...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    1:00 PM MISSISSIPPI ST 65 AUBURN 78 143 -7.5 143.5 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    6:00 PM IOWA ST 61 HOUSTON 72 133 -5 121.0 Home Minus 5* Too Close
    7:30 PM ST JOSEPHS 75 FAIRFIELD 76 151 -2.5 128.5 Too Close Over 4*
    I'm noticing some of your teams have been labeled incorrectly? I hope the data isn't tied to the team names
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  10. 03-16-24 11:02 AM #325
    usma1992
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    Be specific...
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  11. 03-16-24 11:14 AM #326
    Neek762
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    St Peters is playing Fairfield ... Joes play VCU

    and yesterday you had Peters and Joes swapped playing Quinnipiac
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  12. 03-16-24 12:08 PM #327
    usma1992
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    Thank you... names are absolutely tied to data... but it is very difficult managing multiple websites and their nomenclature.

    Dave
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  13. 03-16-24 02:36 PM #328
    RM Logic
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neek762 View Post
    St Peters is playing Fairfield ... Joes play VCU

    and yesterday you had Peters and Joes swapped playing Quinnipiac
    St. Peter's couldnt score 75 points if they played 3 halves. They are the ultimate slow slug horrible offense.
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  14. 03-17-24 08:09 AM #329
    usma1992
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    Thanks for the catch.... my betting website changed their names from St. Peter's to St. Peters. Both of those games were no bets.

    It grabbed St. Josephs stats. No wonder my lines were so off. Enjoy

    No bets today.
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  15. 03-18-24 02:49 PM #330
    jamesrav
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neek762 View Post
    Also, weird shit happens in March. Line manipulation going on factored in with human error in high importance games!
    that's an interesting heuristic built up over years of astute observation ... or it's wrong . If demonstrated by data, then the model has to be adjusted to account for different conditions (ie the time of the year). I'm sure Dave is not overjoyed to hear that may be the case. As he has asked "does the NBA start playing defense after the all star game?", it shows that trying to map reality to a dozen basic stats may not be good enough if things are (historically) known to change at certain points in a season. But I recall testing some opinions a life-long hockey bettor had (eg home teams on a homestand do exceptionally well after losing the 1st game badly) and none panned out in terms of making money. They may have been somewhat true, but the lines also adjusted.
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  16. 03-18-24 03:49 PM #331
    Neek762
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    I think the "different conditions" boils down to being variance + neutral courts, which can be a reason why weird shit happens ... there is something to be said about fading line movement these past couple weeks and how many 1 seeds were booted. I could be wrong, but I'm assuming compiling normal home + away data is too far off when trying to originate for neutral court games. I noticed a lot of "gambling twitter" that rely on algos and models weren't doing so hot these past couple weeks when they were killing it in Feb, which was my worst month lol. Steven Golden even had to go private on twitter because he was losing his ass so hard and there's guys paying him for picks.
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  17. 03-18-24 07:29 PM #332
    usma1992
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    NIT and March Madness Data... my spreads and totals are very close to Vegas most of the time... but I am posting all the games...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    2024-03-19 WAGNER 69 HOWARD 70 139 -3 128.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM N TEXAS 71 LSU 70 141 -2.5 135.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM BOSTON COLLEGE 72 PROVIDENCE 73 146 -3.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM XAVIER 75 GEORGIA 74 150 -1.5 152.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM CORNELL 74 OHIO ST 78 152 -10.5 155.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM RICHMOND 72 VIRGINIA TECH 71 143 -5.5 143.5 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM MINNESOTA 74 BUTLER 79 153 -3.5 147.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM S FLORIDA 68 UCF 71 139 -4.5 140.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM KANSAS ST 73 IOWA 79 152 -6 157.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:10 PM COLORADO ST 67 VIRGINIA 67 134 2.5 120.5 Too Close Too Close
    11:00 PM UC-IRVINE 73 UTAH 77 150 -7.5 148.0 Too Close Too Close
    2024-03-20 GRAMBLING 68 MONTANA ST 74 142 -4 135.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM ST JOSEPHS 72 SETON HALL 74 145 -7 145.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM SMU 74 INDIANA ST 77 150 -7 156.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:00 PM LOYOLA-IL 68 BRADLEY 72 140 -4.5 137.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM UNLV 69 PRINCETON 73 142 -3 138.5 Too Close Too Close
    8:00 PM APPALACHIAN ST 72 WAKE FOREST 76 148 -7 145.5 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM SAN FRANCISCO 72 CINCINNATI 75 147 -6 142.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:00 PM VA COMMONWEALTH 65 VILLANOVA 70 135 -6 131.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:10 PM COLORADO 74 BOISE ST 72 146 2.5 140.5 Too Close Too Close
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  18. 03-18-24 07:30 PM #333
    usma1992
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    March Madness Thursday..

    2024-03-21 MICHIGAN ST 71 MISSISSIPPI ST 69 140 1 130.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:40 PM DUQUESNE 66 BYU 79 145 -9.5 142.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:30 PM AKRON 68 CREIGHTON 79 147 -12.5 141.5 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM LONG BEACH ST 66 ARIZONA 90 157 -20.5 161.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:10 PM MOREHEAD ST 72 ILLINOIS 77 149 -11.5 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM OREGON 70 S CAROLINA 73 143 -1.5 132.0 Too Close Too Close
    4:30 PM NEVADA 70 DAYTON 70 139 1.5 137.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:10 PM OAKLAND 73 KENTUCKY 90 163 -14 163.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:25 PM MCNEESE ST 72 GONZAGA 76 148 -6.5 150.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:35 PM S DAKOTA ST 63 IOWA ST 79 142 -16.5 135.5 Too Close Too Close
    9:20 PM ST PETERS 56 TENNESSEE 79 135 -21.5 130.5 Too Close Too Close
    9:40 PM NC STATE 72 TEXAS TECH 76 147 -5 146.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:55 PM SAMFORD 74 KANSAS 74 148 -7.5 152.5 Too Close Too Close
    10:05 PM DRAKE 73 WASHINGTON ST 73 146 1.5 138.0 Too Close Too Close
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  19. 03-18-24 07:31 PM #334
    usma1992
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    March Madness Friday... Excluding play in games...

    2024-03-22 NORTHWESTERN 74 FLA ATLANTIC 77 152 -2.5 142.5 Too Close Too Close
    12:40 PM COLGATE 69 BAYLOR 77 146 -13.5 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    1:45 PM UAB 66 SAN DIEGO ST 76 142 -7 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM W KENTUCKY 70 MARQUETTE 81 151 -13.5 158.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:45 PM STETSON 61 CONNECTICUT 85 146 -24.5 144.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:10 PM NEW MEXICO 77 CLEMSON 72 149 2 151.0 Too Close Too Close
    4:15 PM YALE 65 AUBURN 80 145 -13 140.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:50 PM TEXAS A&M 71 NEBRASKA 75 146 -1 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:10 PM VERMONT 67 DUKE 77 144 -11.5 132.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:35 PM COLL OF CHARLESTON 78 ALABAMA 87 165 -9.5 174.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:20 PM LONGWOOD 54 HOUSTON 81 135 -24.5 128.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:40 PM JAMES MADISON 77 WISCONSIN 72 148 -5.5 145.0 Away Plus 4* Too Close
    9:55 PM TCU 75 UTAH ST 72 147 3.5 150.5 Too Close Too Close
    10:05 PM GRAND CANYON 63 ST MARYS-CA 73 135 -5.5 132.5 Too Close Too Close
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  20. 03-18-24 07:31 PM #335
    usma1992
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    NIT Saturday and Sunday

    2024-03-23 BETHUNE-COOKMAN 69 ARKANSAS ST 79 148 -12.5 153.0 Too Close Under 3*
    3:30 PM CHICAGO ST 64 CAL SAN DIEGO 77 142 -11 141.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:00 PM DELAWARE ST 61 SEATTLE 77 138 -13 136.5 Too Close Too Close
    2024-03-24 CLEVELAND ST 79 N COLORADO 76 155 0 157.5 Too Close Too Close
    1:30 PM PRESBYTERIAN 70 MONTANA 76 146 -8 151.0 Too Close Too Close
    4:00 PM ARK-LITTLE ROCK 75 FAIRFIELD 75 149 0 152.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:30 PM EVANSVILLE 72 QUINNIPIAC 79 150 -2.5 154.0 Too Close Too Close
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  21. 03-18-24 07:38 PM #336
    usma1992
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    Based on this data... the games worth looking at are


    BYU-
    Morehead St+
    McNeese St+
    Samford+
    JMU+

    Haven't looked at Over/Unders.

    Dave
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  22. 03-18-24 10:53 PM #337
    Neek762
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    Interested on the James Madison line ... Alan Boston was and probably still is huge on +5.5 and once he made that statement there was huge line movement in their favor but now it's back at +5.5
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  23. 03-19-24 07:24 PM #338
    usma1992
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    Amazed how many of my spreads are within a point or two of Vegas. I must have done something right. Good Luck to all during march madness.

    Dave
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  24. 03-20-24 10:11 AM #339
    Neek762
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Amazed how many of my spreads are within a point or two of Vegas. I must have done something right. Good Luck to all during march madness.

    Dave
    That's not always a good thing though since the line gets sharper as the day goes on and as action from
    sharps come in. When your line differs is when your edge shows. One originator I follow had Wagner favored by -4.5 last night for example so he had clear value on Wagner+. Harder to tell your edge when it's close to "Vegas"
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  25. 03-20-24 02:28 PM #340
    usma1992
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    I understand... my system... may not be built for march madness but after the year I have had... I will gladly bow out of having picks. I highlighted the ones that I think the model says you should consider.

    Dave
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  26. 03-20-24 04:16 PM #341
    jamesrav
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    MOREHEAD ST 72 ILLINOIS 77 149 -11.5

    so a game like this doesn't achieve a 3* star rating, even though your 5pt differential is quite different than Vegas' 11.5 ? Is there a 'margin for error' value you factor in at the very end that really decides things? I'm not a spread bettor, but in watching a lot of these YT vids, it seems like the sharp bettors make decisions based on just a .5 or 1 pt differential (that they prefer). Does back-testing show that within the margin for error it's not profitable, or is that a 'gut-based' decision?
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  27. 03-21-24 08:03 AM #342
    usma1992
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    Loosened it up for March Madness...

    2024-03-21 MICHIGAN ST 71 MISSISSIPPI ST 69 140 1 130.5 Too Close Over
    12:40 PM DUQUESNE 63 BYU 79 143 -9.5 142.5 Home Minus Too Close
    1:30 PM AKRON 67 CREIGHTON 79 146 -12.5 141.5 Too Close Over
    2:00 PM LONG BEACH ST 64 ARIZONA 90 154 -20.5 161.5 Home Minus Under
    2:45 PM WAGNER 45 N CAROLINA 83 128 -24.5 133.5 Home Minus Under
    3:10 PM MOREHEAD ST 72 ILLINOIS 77 149 -11.5 147.5 Away Plus Too Close
    4:00 PM OREGON 71 S CAROLINA 73 143 -1.5 132.0 Too Close Over
    4:30 PM NEVADA 70 DAYTON 70 139 1.5 137.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:50 PM COLORADO ST 72 TEXAS 74 145 -2.5 144.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:10 PM OAKLAND 73 KENTUCKY 90 163 -14 163.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:25 PM MCNEESE ST 72 GONZAGA 76 148 -6.5 150.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:35 PM S DAKOTA ST 55 IOWA ST 79 134 -16.5 135.5 Home Minus Too Close
    9:20 PM ST PETERS 37 TENNESSEE 79 116 -21.5 130.5 Home Minus Under
    9:40 PM NC STATE 72 TEXAS TECH 76 147 -5 146.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:55 PM SAMFORD 75 KANSAS 74 150 -7.5 152.5 Away Plus Too Close
    10:05 PM DRAKE 73 WASHINGTON ST 73 146 1.5 138.0 Too Close Over
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  28. 03-21-24 08:04 AM #343
    usma1992
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    2024-03-22 NORTHWESTERN 76 FLA ATLANTIC 77 153 -2.5 142.5 Too Close Over
    12:40 PM COLGATE 68 BAYLOR 77 145 -13.5 139.0 Away Plus Over
    1:45 PM UAB 64 SAN DIEGO ST 76 140 -7 139.0 Home Minus Too Close
    2:00 PM W KENTUCKY 70 MARQUETTE 81 151 -13.5 158.0 Too Close Under
    2:45 PM STETSON 51 CONNECTICUT 85 137 -24.5 144.5 Home Minus Under
    3:10 PM NEW MEXICO 82 CLEMSON 72 154 2 151.0 Away Minus Too Close
    4:15 PM YALE 61 AUBURN 80 140 -13 140.5 Home Minus Too Close
    4:30 PM COLORADO 82 FLORIDA 81 163 -1.5 159.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:50 PM TEXAS A&M 71 NEBRASKA 75 146 -1 147.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:10 PM VERMONT 64 DUKE 77 141 -11.5 132.5 Too Close Over
    7:25 PM GRAMBLING 44 PURDUE 86 129 -26.5 140.5 Home Minus Under
    7:35 PM COLL OF CHARLESTON 83 ALABAMA 87 170 -9.5 174.0 Away Plus Under
    9:20 PM LONGWOOD 31 HOUSTON 81 112 -24.5 128.0 Home Minus Under
    9:40 PM JAMES MADISON 80 WISCONSIN 72 152 -5.5 145.0 Away Plus Over
    9:55 PM TCU 77 UTAH ST 72 148 3.5 150.5 Too Close Too Close
    10:05 PM GRAND CANYON 55 ST MARYS-CA 73 128 -5.5 132.5 Home Minus Under
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  29. 03-21-24 08:24 AM #344
    usma1992
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    Scrap ALL THOSE PICKS ABOVE!!!! I was heading to dentist.
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  30. 03-21-24 10:04 AM #345
    RM Logic
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Scrap ALL THOSE PICKS ABOVE!!!! I was heading to dentist.
    Lol. Just got back from the dentist. Never enjoyable. Same old- you need to floss. Which I never do.

    Seriously the lines are just really tight.
    The only game I really like is Samford +7.5, Kansas is a mess and the game is at altitude which helps Samford who plays alot of guys. Kansas has no bench.
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  31. 03-21-24 10:18 AM #346
    usma1992
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    2024-03-21 MICHIGAN ST 71 MISSISSIPPI ST 69 140 1 130.5 Too Close Over
    12:40 PM DUQUESNE 66 BYU 79 145 -9.5 142.5 Home Minus Too Close
    1:30 PM AKRON 68 CREIGHTON 79 147 -12.5 141.5 Too Close Over
    2:00 PM LONG BEACH ST 66 ARIZONA 90 157 -20.5 161.5 Home Minus Under
    2:45 PM WAGNER 59 N CAROLINA 83 141 -24.5 133.5 Too Close Over
    3:10 PM MOREHEAD ST 72 ILLINOIS 77 149 -11.5 147.5 Away Plus Too Close
    4:00 PM OREGON 70 S CAROLINA 73 143 -1.5 132.0 Too Close Over
    4:30 PM NEVADA 70 DAYTON 70 139 1.5 137.0 Too Close Too Close
    6:50 PM COLORADO ST 72 TEXAS 74 145 -2.5 144.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:10 PM OAKLAND 73 KENTUCKY 90 163 -14 163.5 Home Minus Too Close
    7:25 PM MCNEESE ST 72 GONZAGA 76 148 -6.5 150.0 Too Close Too Close
    7:35 PM S DAKOTA ST 63 IOWA ST 79 142 -16.5 135.5 Too Close Over
    9:20 PM ST PETERS 56 TENNESSEE 79 135 -21.5 130.5 Too Close Over
    9:40 PM NC STATE 72 TEXAS TECH 76 147 -5 146.0 Too Close Too Close
    9:55 PM SAMFORD 74 KANSAS 74 148 -7.5 152.5 Away Plus Under
    10:05 PM DRAKE 73 WASHINGTON ST 73 146 1.5 138.0 Too Close Over
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  32. 03-21-24 10:19 AM #347
    usma1992
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    2024-03-22 NORTHWESTERN 74 FLA ATLANTIC 77 152 -2.5 142.5 Too Close Over
    12:40 PM COLGATE 69 BAYLOR 77 146 -13.5 139.0 Away Plus Over
    1:45 PM UAB 66 SAN DIEGO ST 76 142 -7 139.0 Too Close Too Close
    2:00 PM W KENTUCKY 70 MARQUETTE 81 151 -13.5 158.0 Away Plus Under
    2:45 PM STETSON 61 CONNECTICUT 85 146 -24.5 144.5 Too Close Too Close
    3:10 PM NEW MEXICO 77 CLEMSON 72 149 2 151.0 Away Minus Too Close
    4:15 PM YALE 65 AUBURN 80 145 -13 140.5 Too Close Over
    4:30 PM COLORADO 78 FLORIDA 81 158 -1.5 159.5 Too Close Too Close
    6:50 PM TEXAS A&M 71 NEBRASKA 75 146 -1 147.5 Home Minus Too Close
    7:10 PM VERMONT 67 DUKE 77 144 -11.5 132.5 Too Close Over
    7:25 PM GRAMBLING 58 PURDUE 86 144 -26.5 140.5 Too Close Too Close
    7:35 PM COLL OF CHARLESTON 78 ALABAMA 87 165 -9.5 174.0 Too Close Under
    9:20 PM LONGWOOD 54 HOUSTON 81 135 -24.5 128.0 Too Close Over
    9:40 PM JAMES MADISON 77 WISCONSIN 72 148 -5.5 145.0 Away Plus Too Close
    9:55 PM TCU 75 UTAH ST 72 147 3.5 150.5 Too Close Too Close
    10:05 PM GRAND CANYON 63 ST MARYS-CA 73 135 -5.5 132.5 Home Minus Too Close
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  33. 03-23-24 05:12 AM #348
    usma1992
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    My year long system... has only produced one bet out of 36 games...

    JMU + the points. It actually had them winning out right by the numbers. Should I take this as a win? Not the game... obviously my system was dead on that game.

    However, only producing one game during March Madness first couple of rounds seems weak.

    Dave
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  34. 03-23-24 08:30 AM #349
    Neek762
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    How is that surprising? Remember when you were producing low projections on those 100~game days?
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  35. 03-23-24 01:52 PM #350
    jamesrav
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    how are the non star games doing? There are still quite a few of those. And those are a very good 'side test', since if they only break even (despite a fairly sizeable difference from Vegas), then there's a rather wide +/- 'fuzzy area' where no bets should be made. If they are profitable, you can begin to include them.

    If not, then there are genuinely few or no preferred bet (at or around 60% win rate) opportunities ... meaning you'll have to test/add new factors to the model to perhaps draw out more chances. All sharp bettors on YT seem to favor NCAA basketball due to the sheer volume and possible inability of Vegas to maintain good lines day in and day out for all those games.
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