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NET PPG = RATING – ALL
56.10%, 23-18, +2.86u (March 2018)
NET PPG = RATING – ATS
53.85%, 14-12 +0.74u (March 2018)
NET EFF = POWER RATING – ATS
53.49%, 46-40, +1.86u (March 2018)
PPG = SCORE – ML
37.93%, 22-36, +0.96u (March 2018)
MOE RATING – ATS
53.13%, 17-15, +0.47u (March 2018)
St Mary’s -10
St Mary’s o142.5
What is the definition of offensive and defensive efficiency?
DEF EFF: avg pts allowed per opp 100 possessions.Originally Posted by Bsims
OFF EFF: avg offensive pts per 100 possessions
sorry, isnt st marys at -7? was it -10 at one point?
That was against Washington on the 19th
Math Man’s MOE Rating – NIT, CBI, CIT Tournaments – 3/21
Margin Of Expectation Rating – March 2018
57.14% 20 15 3.20u
Math Man’s Best Bet
UNT +1 (-110)
Stay Tuned – Sweet Sixteen Breakdown Coming Later Today!
MOE Rating
PPG Rating
NET PPG
Net Eff Rating
South Region - (11) Loyola-Chicago vs (7) Nevada
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Loyola-Chicago
LoyChi has been more successful against the number this season than Nevada, and at +1 it seems like Vegas is giving Loyola more of a fair shake than most people consider. Nevada scores 12+ more points per game than Loyola, however Loyola allows about 11 less points per game than Nevada - defense will be a huge factor in this game. Loyola's defense is far superior than Nevada's and Nevada's offense is only a tad bit better than Loyola's - defense wins championships - Loyola Chicago to the Elite 8.
West Region - (7) Texas A&M vs (3) Michigan
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Michigan
Have to go against the smart money on this one - I just don't see what everyone else is seeing - Michigan has been far more successful against the number this season - up on A&M 3 whole points in measure of expectation - that is very telling to me. A&M scores 2 points more than Michigan per game - however Michigan allows 6 points less per game. Michigan allows 3 points less than A&M per 100 possessions on defense and scores 8 more points per 100 possessions on offense. Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their last 10. The hot streak continues tonight. Take Michigan.
South Region - (9) Kansas State vs (5) Kentucky
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Kentucky
Kentucky wins here - but don't a slight lean on KSST ATS. Although Kansas St has a minus number in success rate against the number - they still shine a bit of value on their side in this match up. Kentucky only scores 5.7 more points than KSST per game, and seeing as the spread is only -5, that shows me there is value on the Kansas St side. On top of that Kansas St allows 3.6 fewer points per game than Kentucky - so net/net this match up is shaping up to be more than just a set up spot for Kentucky. KSST & UK share almost the same defensive efficiency rating - however UK is about 2pts better /100 possessions on offense. I think this one is closer than most people imagine. Kentucky wins - Kansas St covers.
West Region - (9) Florida State vs (4) Gonzaga
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Gonzaga
Alot of people are suspecting an upset here - I am not. Gonzaga and FSU have had almost the same amount of success against the number this season - However Gonzaga is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 and FSU is 3-7 ATS. Gonzaga scores just over 3 pts per game more than FSU - which favors FSU's side at +6. Although Gonzaga's defense is just over 6pts better than FSU net/net. Gonzaga scores about 8 points more per 100 possessions than FSU and allows 5 fewer points per 100 possessions on defense. All in all - this match up seems like a wash. The line may be too low - Gonzaga wins impressively.
MidWest Region - (5) Clemson vs (1) Kansas
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Kansas
This one is a doozey. Clemson has beaten expectation all throughout this season. Kansas on the other hand has been even keel throughout the entire campaign. On paper this games looks like a total blow out - but again, don't count out the value on the side of the dog in this one. Kansas scores on average 7.6 more points per game than Clemson - making it look like the spread at -5 has immense value - the only issue is that Clemson has allowed 5 pts fewer per game on average this season than Kansas. Clemson only trails Kansas in average point differential by only 2.2 points - even though Kansas scores 7.6 more points than them per game. This leads me to believe that Clemson may in fact be a more discipline team than Kansas. Clemson allows 4 fewer points per 100 opponent possessions than Kansas - Kansas scores 7 more points per 100 offensive possessions than Clemson. I think this one goes down to the wire similarly to the Kansas/Houston game from the other night - Kansas moves on, Clemson covers.
East Region - (5) West Virginia vs (1) Villanova
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Villanova
WVU has a quirky defense that some teams can handle better than others - Villanova is the highest scoring team in the country. Villanova should be able to handle Press Virginia's D. Villanova is number 3 in the country in assist to turn over ratio. They do not turn the ball over. One over looked factor in this line is the fact that WVU commits a ton of fouls because of their press defense - Villanova shoots free throws very well. Take Villanova to win and cover and move on to the Elite 8.
Villanova 2H
WVU is the #6 team in the country in NET PPG in the 1H - in the 2H they are much worse, teams adjust to their system and find out how to play against the press. WVU is #58 in the country in the 2H. Top 10 team in the 1H - not even a top 50 team in the 2H. This makes me inclined to take Villanova 2H. Use the closing number as a guide and a measure against the spread for what line you should get, and take Villanova at half time.
MidWest Region - (11) Syracuse vs (2) Duke
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Duke
This one is simple. Duke has a better number against the spread on average this season. Duke scores more than Syracuse. The Orange allow 6 pts less than Duke per game, however Duke has a +15.6 point differential on average - Syracuse has only a +3.1 point differential on average. Duke scores 16 more points than Syracuse per 100 offensive possessions. There is no edge here in anyway for Syracuse - they have no business being in this match up. Duke wins and covers the double digit.
East Region - (3) Texas Tech vs (2) Purdue
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Purdue
Line is too low - Purdue rolls here. Haase or no Haase.
Math Man's Bracket
MOE Rating
March 2018: ATS - (60.87%: 28-18, +7.48u)
NET EFF RATING
March 2018: ATS - (53.06%: 52-46, +1.32u)
* Kansas has a slight HCA advantage because of the site location
NET PPG Rating
March 2018: ATS - (51.85%: 28-26, +0.82u)
* Kansas has a slight HCA advantage because of the site location
PPG Rating
March 2018: Totals - (52.29%: 114-104, -0.72u)
* Kansas has a slight HCA advantage because of the site location
South Region - (11) Loyola-Chicago vs (9) Kansas State
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Loyola Chicago
West Region - (9) Florida State vs (3) Michigan
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Michigan
East Region - (3) Texas Tech vs (1) Villanova
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Villanova
MidWest Region - (2) Duke vs (1) Kansas
Math Man's Bracket Pick: Duke
MOE RATING - MARCH 2018:
60.00% 30 20 7.30u
3.26.18
Looking good. Does Loyola get any bonus points for being HIS favorite team?
NCAA - MOE RATING (March 2018)
31 22 6.21u
3.28
PSU wins it - defense is on point and cant miss. Ready to hoist another NIT trophy since 2009.
GL to you and thanks for all the data and input!
“Have no fear the Math Man is here!”
We have come so far from just a budding analytical sprout to a blossoming mathematical flower of handicapping edge. Not only have we advanced our models into derivatives, we have also added blended stats based on last 3 games played.
So get ready! It’s Math Time!
Our most successful stat this March has been the “Measure Of Expectation” aka ‘The Moe Rating’
The Moe Rating – ATS: March 2018
We have also had success with a few other models during the tournament.
58.62% 34 24 +6.94u
NET PPG Rating – All: March 2018
Net Efficiency Rating – ATS: March 2018:
55.93% 33 26 3.46u
So without further delay – let’s get cappin!
53.47% 54 47 2.14
(11) Loyola-Chicago vs (3) Michigan
MOE Rating
Net PPG Rating
Net EFF Rating
Net Assists/TurnOver Rating
Net Rebound Rating
Rebound + Free Throw Rating
Average Winning Margin Rating
Math Man’s Bracket Pick:
(1) Villanova vs (1) Kansas
MOE Rating
Net PPG Rating
Net EFF Rating
Net Asst/TurnOver Rating
Net Rebound Rating
Rebound + Free Throw Rating
Average Winning Margin Rating
Math Man’s Bracket Pick:
Michigan/Loyola
PPG = Totals (52.25%: 116-106, -0.9)
Rebound + Free Throw Rating
Over/Under Trend Model:
Villanova/Kansas
PPG = Totals (52.25%: 116-106, -0.9)
Rebound + Free Throw Rating
Over/Under Trend Model:
Michigan/Loyola
1H Avg Winning Margin
2H Avg Winning Margin
1H Net PPG
2H Net PPG
Villanova/Kansas
1H Avg Winning Margin
2H Avg Winning Margin
1H Net PPG
2H Net PPG
$125: Villanova -1, Loyola +9.5 – Teaser @ 1.91
$50: Loyola/Michigan u130 (-105),
$50: Kansas/Villanova o155 (-110),
$50: Loyola/Michigan 1H o59,
$50: Kansas/Villanova 1H u72.5 (-110)
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