Originally Posted by
BiffTFinancial
We got the late FTs and threes that we needed (and that you would expect in a game where the home fave holds a two-score-plus lead heading into the final few minutes), but they had already missed like 15 FTs at that point. Surely, we cannot expect teams to hit all their FTs, but these two teams normally shoot combined around 70% at the stripe but hit only 25-41 (60.9% last night). Also, after starting hot from deep, W&M hit only one three-pointer in the final 16-plus minutes. Normally FT% from both teams, plus one more three from the Tribe, gets us to 154.
Whatever. All of that sound like whining, and the play deserved to lose (and was nowhere near the 167-168 that KenPom and my model both predicted). Moral of the story: when the books open the total 14 points below KenPom, and the first line move is a drop, take heed. It's worth noting that UK/Arky total was in a similar boat, and although the over it, it needed OT. A loss is a loss is a loss, but if i don't try to learn something from the loss, i'm doomed to take more of them.