Southern Illinois +5.
Let's go through this one logically. Indiana St. and SIU have played twice this year. The first meeting happened at SIU where SIU won outright 73-67. The second meeting was at Indiana St where Indiana St. won 78-68. In that game Indiana St went 12-12 from the three point line. That's right, 12-12. After all that hot shooting, the Sycamores were only up 2 at half in that game, and only wound up winning by 10. Maybe it was because they turned the ball over 18 times . The spread for that game was 8 if I remember correctly.
Indiana St is night and day when they play home and away. They are awful on the road. The game tonight happens to be in St. Louis, which is a neutral site and a pretty quick drive from SIU. Not trying to say that there will be an all-SIU crowd, but they should get some students, parents, alumni down for the game. That should make the game feel like SIU has the home court advantage. (For whatever that's worth) I feel like Indiana St is a very fragile team when they leave the Hulman Center.
In the two matchups SIU scored 73 and 68, respectively. It took a 12-12 three point effort and a 56% shooting night AT HOME for the Sycamores to put up 78 points. If SIU can score around the same amount of points they have in the past two games, I see no way Indiana St can cover 5. Also helps that the public is pounding Indiana St and will continue to pound them based off of records. SIU +5 is the play. My opinion anyways.
Hit this winner.