1. 02-26-12 04:06 PM #1
    Patrickz0rs
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    Miami (FL) will beat Florida St.

    The squares already won with Indiana +1 now it's time for the sharps to get a win!
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  2. 02-26-12 04:07 PM #2
    BigDofBA
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    I don't think there is a sharp side here. It's a total coinflip. A ton of people like Miami.
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  3. 02-26-12 04:08 PM #3
    No coincidences
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    I honestly don't remember the last time an unranked home fave has beaten a rated opponent. Play used to be money in the bank; I swear it's about 0 for the past month.
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  4. 02-26-12 04:09 PM #4
    Patrickz0rs
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post



    I don't think there is a sharp side here. It's a total coinflip. A ton of people like Miami.
    I consider any ranked team getting points a square play since the pubic loves to see better ranked teams as dogs.
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  5. 02-26-12 04:10 PM #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    I consider any ranked team getting points a square play since the pubic loves to see better ranked teams as dogs.
    Seriously Pat look it up -- the play (unranked home fave) hasn't cashed in an eternity.
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  6. 02-26-12 04:14 PM #6
    southpaw74
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    Miami hasn't beaten Florida state in at least their last 5 meetings...all close games though. Why do they win today? I haven't made a play
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  7. 02-26-12 04:18 PM #7
    Patrickz0rs
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    Miami FL Reggie Johnson has just been ruled ineligible.
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  8. 02-26-12 04:19 PM #8
    tdforte22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    Miami FL Reggie Johnson has just been ruled ineligible.
    So your changing your vote to the "squares" now?
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  9. 02-26-12 04:20 PM #9
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    I consider any ranked team getting points a square play since the pubic loves to see better ranked teams as dogs.
    I don't think Miami is a bad play. I would definitely lean the home team in a Rivalry game but it's not a slam dunk.

    Home favorites that are -1 or -2 never seem to cover. See USF today. I'm sure you thought Cincy was a square play and it cashed. Likewise, Minnesota was -1.5 at home and they didn't cover either. Do you see the trend here?

    It's almost like the books made Minnesota and USF favorites to trick people into taking them. I've seen some weird things with lines this year that haven't followed historical trends.

    If you look at this board there is a ton of Miami love. Don't be silly and think this board isn't the "public" either because it is.

    Florida State can easily win this game. If you take Miami it's not a bad play but it's too much of a coin flip imo.
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  10. 02-26-12 04:20 PM #10
    Patrickz0rs
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdforte22 View Post

    So your changing your vote to the "squares" now?
    No. Miami (FL) gets the W here.
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  11. 02-26-12 04:20 PM #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    Miami FL Reggie Johnson has just been ruled ineligible.
    Yet no line reaction? Interesting....
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  12. 02-26-12 04:22 PM #12
    tdforte22
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    Miami isnt a force at home like it seems

    Wins over Wake, Maryland, Clemson, and VT is not that impressive
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  13. 02-26-12 04:23 PM #13
    Patrickz0rs
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    With three regular season games left the Hurricanes need a sweep to give themselves a shot at the 'Big Dance.' A win today would match the Hurricanes for most ACC wins in a single season with eight.
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  14. 02-26-12 04:23 PM #14
    tdforte22
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    to each their own though..

    I seriously thought this line would have been FSU -3 or -4 at opening..
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  15. 02-26-12 04:25 PM #15
    Patrickz0rs
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    Last night I made a thread saying that Connecticut would be Syracuse - advising people to take +5 since it was a gift. Uconn had the last shot to win that game.
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  16. 02-26-12 04:27 PM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    With three regular season games left the Hurricanes need a sweep to give themselves a shot at the 'Big Dance.' A win today would match the Hurricanes for most ACC wins in a single season with eight.
    I've been betting teams in "must win" NCAA spots all week long, and they all happened to be short home faves against ranked opponents: Texas vs. Baylor on Monday, Northwestern vs. Michigan on Tuesday, West Virginia vs. Marquette, (stayed away from Minnesota today vs. Indiana), etc., etc.

    Not one win. Hope for your sake the trend finally changes here. Like I said, this used to be an automatic/money in the bank play.
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  17. 02-26-12 04:30 PM #17
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Seriously Pat look it up -- the play (unranked home fave) hasn't cashed in an eternity.
    not very often. but when new mexico covered -6 vs unlv recently
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  18. 02-26-12 04:32 PM #18
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Seriously Pat look it up -- the play (unranked home fave) hasn't cashed in an eternity.
    new mexico vs unlv
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  19. 02-26-12 04:32 PM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    not very often. but when new mexico covered -6 vs unlv recently
    That's honestly the only one I can remember off the top of my head.
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  20. 02-26-12 04:33 PM #20
    Big Bear
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    sorry computer is malfunctioning
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  21. 02-26-12 04:33 PM #21
    Big Bear
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    yeah u are right though
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  22. 02-26-12 04:34 PM #22
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    Last night I made a thread saying that Connecticut would beat Syracuse
    And Uconn lost. What's your point? Syracuse got up 19 and quit playing.

    You also made a thread saying Eli Manning over 2.5 TDs in the Super Bowl was free money. That was a loser too.

    Anything can happen. I would lean Miami but it seems like a coin flip to me. GL.
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  23. 02-26-12 04:36 PM #23
    tdforte22
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    My best guess--

    FSU by 6

    I'm considering doubling my original bet

    hmm
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  24. 02-26-12 04:38 PM #24
    Patrickz0rs
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post

    And Uconn lost. What's your point? Syracuse got up 19 and quit playing.

    You also made a thread saying Eli Manning over 2.5 TDs in the Super Bowl was free money. That was a loser too.

    Anything can happen. I would lean Miami but it seems like a coin flip to me. GL.
    Did you forget the part where I said take the +5? Anyway, I'm not here to prove anything, I made 3 units on Uconn last night.

    And I believe Northern Iowa beat Creighton as a small home favorite.
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  25. 02-26-12 04:39 PM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrickz0rs View Post
    Did you forget the part where I said take the +5? Anyway, I'm not here to prove anything, I made 3 units on Uconn last night.

    And I believe Northern Iowa beat Creighton as a small home favorite.
    UNI wasn't favored. They were +1 according to my records.
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  26. 02-26-12 04:43 PM #26
    tdforte22
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    68% of the action is on Miami

    Looks like Miami is the SQUARE play
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  27. 02-26-12 04:44 PM #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdforte22 View Post
    68% of the action is on Miami

    Looks like Miami is the SQUARE play
    No it's not. You have the % backwards.
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  28. 02-26-12 04:46 PM #28
    tdforte22
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    Maybe thats just my book

    Thats the top trending play on the list
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  29. 02-26-12 04:47 PM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdforte22 View Post
    Maybe thats just my book

    Thats the top trending play on the list
    Which book?

    The top trending play at your book is Miami?

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  30. 02-26-12 04:48 PM #30
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    UNI wasn't favored. They were +1 according to my records.
    Yes. The short favorite lost that game. I had Northern Iowa.

    I'm not saying short favorites never cover, but they seem to lose the majority of the time. Somone should look up yesterday's results.

    Off of the top of my head teams that were -1 or -2 that lost

    Old Dominion
    Temple
    Minnesota
    USF
    etc.

    This happens every weekend. Teams like Temple are easy money and people jump all over them because they are only -2. Then they lose straight up.

    Miami is at home in a must win game against their rival. I could see how the average person would love to take Miami in this spot.

    It's not as easy of a play as you think. At least, I don't think it is.

    And yes, I can see Miami winning here. I like the over more than anything.
    Last edited by BigDofBA; 02-26-12 at 04:51 PM.
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  31. 02-26-12 04:49 PM #31
    tdforte22
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    creighton -1.5
    NW -1.5

    Both lost for me

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  32. 02-26-12 04:51 PM #32
    hustlehard617
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    Thespread.com has 68% on FSU
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  33. 02-26-12 04:54 PM #33
    BigDofBA
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    It's 68% on FSU.

    Despite the injury Miami is still -1. Miami does appear to be the play although I'm not that confident in it.
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  34. 02-26-12 04:58 PM #34
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    line has moved its PK now
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  35. 02-26-12 04:59 PM #35
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