[Flexin]

To me $10000 is a lot of money. Would I bet that much on the game? No. I would have to make a lot more then I do to bet that amount. As far as betting on a -1600 games goes, it would work out to 6.25%. A premium rate savings account will give you about 0.25%. A lot of people would be pretty happy with a 6.25% gain in a day.

There is always talk about value. I think value is different for everyone. The best value is the one that wins IMO. +5000 odd are really nice if you feel the team will win. If not it wouldn't matter if they had +500000.

In the end you would have to feel good enough about that game to put that kind of money on it. If you don't, skip it.

James

[Hazious]

[BettingWizard]

Historical Heat homes vs King away 13-1 (since -96) ....93%

But thats only historical....other players,lines etc etc...my guess its around 90-95%




mikke

this is the best heat team ever vs maybe the worst kings team ever

[apomixis]

IMO huge ML works well if one can hit 100% of their plays. But if they're human like the rest of us, sooner or later it will be

[Hazious]

lol sbr sportsbook just moved heat to -3000

[Rolo1984]

10 large to win a little over $600 still equals a stressful 4th qrtr, GL tonight.

if you cant handle the pain dont pay the game. i pressume TS BR is not 10k if so it is not smart

No offence guys but i see a lot of retarded comments. it doesnt matter if you win small if the bet wins 95.1% of the times the bet SHOULD be taken. It is retarded so reason that you should not make the bet only because you win small. It is all about making the analysis and judge what the hit rate will be. I see a lot off claims wihtout any substance. Posters just shouting about betting 10k is stupid because you only win a little or that you can bet 10k differently. [x] care if miami wins 14 of every 15 times the bet should be made of they win 13 of every 14 times the bet should not be made.

I think ML are underrated because good teams always seem to be able to turn things around when they are well behind. I have already seen it a couple of times this season. The heat for example dont know which game but were behind at home double digits and won with double digits at the end. In basketball you have to be at your best 4 quarters you have to keep scoring. You cant, like in soccer, decide you are going to defend.

Ouststanding teams have outstanding players and the difference between an outstanding and an average player is that an outstanding players makes big plays when it is crunch time. So even if it is close players like james, wade, bryant etc seem to be able to shift one extra gear to win it for example the home game of miami against indiana

[Rolo1984]

lol sbr sportsbook just moved heat to -3000

lol talking about juice. Quite some bookies offer Ml@-1407

[Rolo1984]

IMO huge ML works well if one can hit 100% of their plays. But if they're human like the rest of us, sooner or later it will be

If you mean this I like to nominate this post to be the most dumbest post of the day. I really hope i missed the sarcasm or i just dont understand your sense of humor.

[masticore]

I dont care in my argument if his betting 1 bux or 10 grand...

The question is if its a value in ml ... and if you think its over 95% chance they win its a good bet (at line-1600) and if its lower then 95% dont play...

I have no problem to play huge fav ml games...but its normal no value there

Why...?

The books know that there are lot of people playing them...so they get extra juice there and put that juice back on the dog...therefor you will often find value in dog ml bet then you do in fav ml



mikke

[Rolo1984]

I dont care in my argument if his betting 1 bux or 10 grand...

The question is if its a value in ml ... and if you think its over 95% chance they win its a good bet (at line-1600) and if its lower then 95% dont play...

I have no problem to play huge fav ml games...but its normal no value there

Why...?

The books know that there are lot of people playing them...so they get extra juice there and put that juice back on the dog...therefor you will often find value in dog ml bet then you do in fav ml



mikke

that is the whole point. I already said that i personally dont know if it is value or not. Most posters however seem to get sidetracked huge because je is talking about betting 10k.

Your theory could be correct on the other hand tradingexchanges almost always offers the best price available the same as best bookies offer but interesting theory

Additionally, almost all bookies have a serious betting limit. Most exclude you or limit you when you are winning or not losing fast enough

Thus, I personally do not believe in your juice reasoning too much, could be wrong though

[apomixis]

If you mean this I like to nominate this post to be the most dumbest post of the day. I really hope i missed the sarcasm or i just dont understand your sense of humor.

No hard feelings, but anyone who can determine whether MIA is 93% to win or 97% is a way better handicapper than most. That's a pretty thin line of probability with very little possible value to be gleaned at the top, especially since nothing is ever a 100% . Agreed, a person isn't going to lose this kind of wager very often, but...

I just don't see the long-term value. Different strokes I guess

[masticore]

that is the whole point. I already said that i personally dont know if it is value or not. Most posters however seem to get sidetracked huge because je is talking about betting 10k.

Your theory could be correct on the other hand tradingexchanges almost always offers the best price available the same as best bookies offer but interesting theory

Additionally, almost all bookies have a serious betting limit. Most exclude you or limit you when you are winning or not losing fast enough

Thus, I personally do not believe in your juice reasoning too much, could be wrong though

About the juice is movin or not...I'm not sure either...thats my own thuoghts

Why I think soo - 2 reasons,,,first of all,,,the books whant to even out the money in the games and fav win more often and if they have 1% extra juice there will it make lot of money

And 2nd...I have seen some tables...if always bet fav vs always betting dog...and there will you lose money faster when always bet fav...(dont remember where I found that tables..but it where spmewhere on the web)

BOL
mikke


PS My english s bad sometimes (if not always)but hopefully do you understand me DS

[Mikail]

What's all the fuss about? Heat ML will win tonight. Ya'll arguing over nothing.

[sportman1313]

nbabrosuf....i think ur mommy is calling u bro lol. What an absurd post on ur part, not meaning to flame u or anything. Get real bud

[Rolo1984]

About the juice is movin or not...I'm not sure either...thats my own thuoghts

Why I think soo - 2 reasons,,,first of all,,,the books whant to even out the money in the games and fav win more often and if they have 1% extra juice there will it make lot of money

And 2nd...I have seen some tables...if always bet fav vs always betting dog...and there will you lose money faster when always bet fav...(dont remember where I found that tables..but it where spmewhere on the web)

BOL
mikke


PS My english s bad sometimes (if not always)but hopefully do you understand me DS

you could be right. Bookies want to have all bets matched. I think i understand your reasoning that statistics show that long term allways betting the favorite does not prove to be a winning strategy. However, i dont like these statistics since sometimes injuries/unavalaible players etc do influence results a lot especially when one loss influences statistics big time

It is almost impossible to prove if it has value or not, Because teams have to meet under roughly the same conditions. For example maimi could com off a 5 game losing streak and still be very big fav against kings. This case you could reason miami could lose. A totally different situation from now when they are playing decent basketball.

My impression is that no matter how bad a team plays. A big team is still bigtime favored by the public. odds just dont seem to rise that much even if rational reasoning would justify it

[sportman1313]

touche mikail....although i kinda hope kings pull off an upset or atleast keep it real close now that i'm not playing heat

What's all the fuss about? Heat ML will win tonight. Ya'll arguing over nothing.

[Git Lo]

So Miami scores 35 in the first quarter and is up 19.

[masticore]

What's all the fuss about? Heat ML will win tonight. Ya'll arguing over nothing.

We all think that Heat will win..and absolutly now after 35-16 in first quarter...

I have Mia-13...so of course will I that they win

Discusion I had was ..if its good or not to play on -1600

mikke

[sportman1313]

LOL....kinda wish I took MIAMI ML now. Oh well, what can ya do? Wizards and Pacers put up too much at the end of both first and second quarters...under isn't looking too good at all rite now

[Mikail]

We all think that Heat will win..and absolutly now after 35-16 in first quarter...

I have Mia-13...so of course will I that they win

Discusion I had was ..if its good or not to play on -1600

mikke

Oh I see. Yeah it's definitely not to take -1600 on the ML but if you pick and choose spots it can be a easy way to recoup on losses. I used to do it until I got burned one too many times.

[sportman1313]

mikail....you bring up a real good point here. That's also my approach to playing ML for big money...I've had a close calls and one huge loss a long while back that burned me quite a while. The unfortunate thing about playing like this is that you can win over and over again, but that one loss will overwhelm all the wins...sucks when it does happen. Nonetheless, this game was one of those few situations where putting ur house, ur car, and ur kids' college tuition up for the bet would have been worth it!!

[masticore]

Oh I see. Yeah it's definitely not to take -1600 on the ML but if you pick and choose spots it can be a easy way to recoup on losses. I used to do it until I got burned one too many times.

Agree with you..this is a game where you can win back some of your losses so if you want to take a lottery ticket (almost 100% winner) - this will be a good game to do it....

I see both sides of it...

But we are in a betting forum there we have same goal - crush the books

And we know better way to chase losses

BOL
mikke

[Rolo1984]

mikail....you bring up a real good point here. That's also my approach to playing ML for big money...I've had a close calls and one huge loss a long while back that burned me quite a while. The unfortunate thing about playing like this is that you can win over and over again, but that one loss will overwhelm all the wins...sucks when it does happen. Nonetheless, this game was one of those few situations where putting ur house, ur car, and ur kids' college tuition up for the bet would have been worth it!!

That is how the mind works. The feeling of a loss is much worse than the feeling you get when you win. I would never bet too much but sure keeps it exciting

[sportman1313]

agreed rolo1984!!! Certainly keeps things more exciting but the feeling of a losss is so much worse and more powerful than an equal win. Sure would've been nice with such a comfortable lead at halftime tho....it's all good tho. Agreed masticore....let's crush the books! BOL all

[madrabbit]

Nothing wrong with the bet most here have a go at the guy but most here are twats who want even money and lose 90 percent of the time or rarely make a profit. Pro punters do this all the time. Ive did it heaps and its how I made my money.

Agree what I read in this post so many american punters take this stupid points spread like that moron pac who everyone looks at like he's a god vs the titans. Which idiot would back -2.5 big when you could go for the straight win? People say there's no value in ml yet they'd rather lose on points for better odds.

Fools.

[sportman1313]

madrabbit, good to hear from u bud....you make a very good point here bro. On another note, I'm in 3.4k on Lakers ML for this game....wanted to go for more but I think I'll settle with close to about 1k. Madrabbit, u in on this game also bro? How u been faring as of late?

[NBA_Brosuf]

Nonetheless, this game was one of those few situations where putting ur house, ur car, and ur kids' college tuition up for the bet would have been worth it!!

Why not just say to put your own gf or wife up to get rape if you lose on your high bets moneyline?

Anything else you want to add into the equation to make it worth it? The chinese put their own life on some bets too ya know?

[sportman1313]

nba_brosuf....you're right bro, i'll put my testicles on the line too!!!

[madrabbit]

madrabbit, good to hear from u bud....you make a very good point here bro. On another note, I'm in 3.4k on Lakers ML for this game....wanted to go for more but I think I'll settle with close to about 1k. Madrabbit, u in on this game also bro? How u been faring as of late?

hey bud lost 5500 but won that back plus 500. Lost 2k on aussies in cricket. I need celtics-lakers today to make that up. Only one big bet of late that was bulls live vs the spurs. Follow your instinct mate dont bet on what others think

[sportman1313]

madrabbit, you're among the few people on here that i listen to wholeheartedly and respect....you're absolutely right man, and I have mad respect for you considering you're also willing to make the big bets and back up what you say bro. Glad that you've been doing well....ahhh, you're lakers-celtics play is looking fantastic right now also! Congrats man, continued luck for u

[hawley]

Nothing wrong with the bet most here have a go at the guy but most here are twats who want even money and lose 90 percent of the time or rarely make a profit. Pro punters do this all the time. Ive did it heaps and its how I made my money.

Agree what I read in this post so many american punters take this stupid points spread like that moron pac who everyone looks at like he's a god vs the titans. Which idiot would back -2.5 big when you could go for the straight win? People say there's no value in ml yet they'd rather lose on points for better odds.

Fools.

Madrabbit are you the best handicapper on this site?

[madrabbit]

Madrabbit are you the best handicapper on this site?

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL nice try for a troll dude. No, I am not. But I do make big plays and I do win. No offense my friend not trying to be rude but if you look up my history of big bets they've all come through. I have gave wrong tips as everyone does but I am proven champ.

At the end of the day I just want everyone to win and use the best strategy. Or should I say a working strategy.


Hope you win a shit load. Cheers.

[masticore]

My thoughts...(and I'm absolutly no good capper)

1st:

I saw value in Lakers ml game but not in Heat game (I said that before the games)
And pro capper also play on huge ml Fav...but only when thy see some possitive EV

2nd:

I saw more value on spread in both games (that was 2 of my games tonight) and I risked lesser then if I played on ml

And I have a question..do you really saw that Heat will win that match up over 95% of the times...thats a incredible high number to beat (if you compere with lakers game you only need 80%)

But when thats said....nice hits on both games

regards
mikke

[sportman1313]

Thanks bro, I appreciate it. I'm not sure if you were intending this post for me, but I ended up not playing the heat but instead played only Lakers ML but was pretty confident on both of these. With regards to determining and capping the percentages you mentioned, no I did not but did quite a bit of analysis on both games although I can't give you any concrete numbers. Also, there was certainly more value in the Lakers game...w/o a doubt, I'm just happy that lakers were in an excellent position and the spread on it actually not up to where it should have been and late pre-game money shifted that minutes before the game but i didnt wanna take any risks with the spread. Heat was more so a play that was based on absolute mismatches against the kings, dominance at home against the kings, kings' performance without star player evans (contrary to how other teams perform w/o star player), etc.

Hope you also fared well bud....bol to you tomorrow.

My thoughts...(and I'm absolutly no good capper)

1st:

I saw value in Lakers ml game but not in Heat game (I said that before the games)
And pro capper also play on huge ml Fav...but only when thy see some possitive EV

2nd:

I saw more value on spread in both games (that was 2 of my games tonight) and I risked lesser then if I played on ml

And I have a question..do you really saw that Heat will win that match up over 95% of the times...thats a incredible high number to beat (if you compere with lakers game you only need 80%)

But when thats said....nice hits on both games

regards
mikke

[sportman1313]

I can attest to madrabbit's success....he indeed puts the big money on plays and will post up tickets also. For the most part, he wins them much more than he loses and he certainly (in my opinion) chooses ideal times to make these big plays.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL nice try for a troll dude. No, I am not. But I do make big plays and I do win. No offense my friend not trying to be rude but if you look up my history of big bets they've all come through. I have gave wrong tips as everyone does but I am proven champ.

At the end of the day I just want everyone to win and use the best strategy. Or should I say a working strategy.


Hope you win a shit load. Cheers.