[brahmabull117]

real talk here guys



I have been doing some research here in the NBA over the last few weeks. Here is the thing, as much as we like to think of the NBA as a league where "amazing happens", in reality, true upsets very rarely happen


I have gone through the road records of bad teams in the NBA last year (IE teams that only won 20-30 games) and most of these teams literally have maybe 1 or 2 wins vs good opponents all year on the road (you are looking at a road record of like 1-16 against good opponents). It's pretty much the same thing this year, true road upsets of good teams are VERY VERY rare


it basically comes down to this, you can put down a big chunk of money on MoneyLine Parlays of good home teams playing bad road teams in the NBA and you will come out a winner about 70-80% of your days


people don't realize just how generous ML plays really are. These lines of say -500 when it's San Antonio playing Golden State are just fantastic value. Why?? because teams like San Antonio will probably win 10-15 games for every home loss they have to a bad team like Golden State over the course of a 5 year period

I have been experimenting with this the last 2 days and Have had terrific success - so far 2-0

I had a 3 team ML yesterday and a 5 team ML today and both of them succeeded

[8ArIvd5]

That's how I've been making a large portion of my NBA winnings. Even good teams on the road pull out a close victory against bad teams.

[brahmabull117]

That's how I've been making a large portion of my NBA winnings. Even good teams on the road pull out a close victory against bad teams.

that's a little bit more dicey... (spurs losing to the clippers, hornets losing to the clippers, lakers losing to houston, etc...). though as long as you get a good road team facing a struggling team (like say the hawks playing minnesota), you should be fine


but yea you can make a huge amount of money just doing ML parlays...wayyyyyyyyyyy better than spreads or totals cause there is no BS there with MLs

[JMUplayer]

Are you even getting close to -120 on three heavy favorites?

[brahmabull117]

Are you even getting close to -120 on three heavy favorites?

you would be shocked how good the value is on these parlays

I had a parlay today of the Bulls, Celtics, knicks, hornets and spurs and I think it was about + 230 value

[8ArIvd5]

Bulls, Hornets, Knicks, Spurs, and Lakers were +260 today.

[brahmabull117]

Bulls, Hornets, Knicks, Spurs, and Lakers were +260 today.

even better

[8ArIvd5]

Brahma, how do you decide which teams to play?

[brahmabull117]

Brahma, how do you decide which teams to play?

look for good teams with very good home records playing teams with very bad road records. Pretty simple. Bad road teams in the NBA will almost never beat good teams on the road (even if the game is close, they find a way to choke)



avoid any sort of a situation where there is legit potential for a loss... for example the Spurs are always a fantastic team to parlay on moneylines but they play Atlanta on friday who is like 8-3 on the road...very real possibility of a loss there so you stay far away from that


in terms of road games, look for teams who have been playing great the last 5-10 days facing really bad teams. For example, the Heat play golden state on friday.... that is a great pick for any sort of a parlay as Miami will likely win in a blowout


also look at previous history... the lakers were a big red flag for today's game (they lost twice to the clippers last year and they are trailing again in this one)


generally speaking, road games are a big no no for these parlays unless you get a really bad team playing a team with a great road record (which is somewhat rare)

[whadeeb]

I will try this

[raiders510]

brahma thanks for the tips.....perhaps you should post a parlay for tomorrow....i would like to check it out

[brahmabull117]

brahma thanks for the tips.....perhaps you should post a parlay for tomorrow....i would like to check it out

nothing good on tomorrow...really nothing good until about saturday unfortunately (heat at kings and bulls at home vs minnesota, put huge money on that, no way in hell either team loses)

put a lot of money on the ML for the heat at golden state on friday though...no way in hell will the Heat lose that game

[BettingWizard]

heat have no value in home ML's, even in parlays, -2000 AND UP against shit teams

[Jive]

Totally agree with you on this one, brahma. People will talk about the juice and stuff, but this year I'm up 30+ units on ML parlays already. On straight bets I'm only up 3, and if you take away team totals wagers I'd be down a handful. Last year was much the same. People will ridicule you and poop on you for betting this way, but ignore them. If you do it right and wisely pick your spots, it is an ATM machine, especially now that you can mix in some college teams. The key is to be smart and avoid heavy chalk in spots that are ripe for upsets, because high ML #'s don't really help you, anyway. You can easily have 3 days a week where you can pair 3 teams together at +200 and have a lot of confidence of winning.

Also, I would strongly suggest you make these plays as early as possible if taking favorites. For instance, tonight one of my parlays went with the Celtics, Bulls, and Kentucky, and that paid at +180. If I would have made the wager on the closing lines it would have only gotten me +139. I would have passed on the play at that point because I was a little skittish of the bulls, so anything under +150 would have been a no play.

Good luck to all of you who give this a shot. Just don't get greedy, avoid high numbers (of teams and chalk), and pick your spots wisely. It can be profitable as can be. Save your crazy and greedy parlays for the SBR sportsbook. I lose my points almost every day that way!

[ShogunRua]

You can lose a ton of money really fast betting this way. Very rarely will this strategy work out in your favor in the long run.

Start a thread tracking your ML parlays throughout the rest of the season. I don't mean to bring negative vibes to your thread, but I honestly can't see this being profitable during the course of an entire season.

[brahmabull117]

Totally agree with you on this one, brahma. People will talk about the juice and stuff, but this year I'm up 30+ units on ML parlays already. On straight bets I'm only up 3, and if you take away team totals wagers I'd be down a handful. Last year was much the same. People will ridicule you and poop on you for betting this way, but ignore them. If you do it right and wisely pick your spots, it is an ATM machine, especially now that you can mix in some college teams. The key is to be smart and avoid heavy chalk in spots that are ripe for upsets, because high ML #'s don't really help you, anyway. You can easily have 3 days a week where you can pair 3 teams together at +200 and have a lot of confidence of winning. Also, I would strongly suggest you make these plays as early as possible if taking favorites. For instance, tonight one of my parlays went with the Celtics, Bulls, and Kentucky, and that paid at +180. If I would have made the wager on the closing lines it would have only gotten me +139. I would have passed on the play at that point because I was a little skittish of the bulls, so anything under +150 would have been a no play. Good luck to all of you who give this a shot. Just don't get greedy, avoid high numbers (of teams and chalk), and pick your spots wisely. It can be profitable as can be.

agreed with most of what you are saying but I don't really see any problem in taking like a -500 team in a Parlay


let's be realistic here, what is the real chance of the Spurs losing to Golden State at home?? 1 in 10?? at -500, that's fantastic value

[brahmabull117]

You can lose a ton of money really fast betting this way. Very rarely will this strategy work out in your favor in the long run.

Start a thread tracking your ML parlays throughout the rest of the season. I don't mean to bring negative vibes to your thread, but I honestly can't see this being profitable during the course of an entire season.

I understand your negative feelings towards this but it really makes a ton of sense once you start doing some research


look up the last 14 days of basketball, I don't think you will find a single legitimately bad team with a bad road record beating a good team on the road


straight up upsets just don't happen in the NBA anymore, I'm sorry.

[Jive]

Oh, I agree with you, -500 isn't bad at all in good situations. I'm thinking more of the Lakers being -1700 last night or whatever it was. I personally only use #'s that high to tie into small favorites that I can take on the ML, which will effectively give you a pick-em on those games at -110. For example, if I had liked the Bucks tonight and didn't want to lay the points, I could have paired them on the ML @ -125 with a team at -1600 and essentially gotten the game at PK for -110.

[brahmabull117]

Oh, I agree with you, -500 isn't bad at all in good situations. I'm thinking more of the Lakers being -1700 last night or whatever it was. I personally only use #'s that high to tie into small favorites that I can take on the ML, which will effectively give you a pick-em on those games at -110. For example, if I had liked the Bucks tonight and didn't want to lay the points, I could have paired them on the ML @ -125 with a team at -1600 and essentially gotten the game at PK for -110.

I very rarely see MLs that large brah, even the Spurs facing golden state only had -500 today


but yea I agree, past 500/600 - there is no point since it barely helps your parlay anyways

[Jive]

Yeah, you don't see them much in the NBA. College is loaded with them, and I mix the leagues together.

[brahmabull117]

Yeah, you don't see them much in the NBA. College is loaded with them, and I mix the leagues together.

we are gonna make an absolute killing next wednesday brah


Kings at hornets

Cavaliers at heat

bucks at spurs

timberwolves at phoenix

4 teams on the road who have a combined 8 road wins all year


I'm gonna bet $1,000 dollars on it....should be an easy and free 1300-1600 dollars

[dimon]

I very rarely see MLs that large brah, even the Spurs facing golden state only had -500 today


but yea I agree, past 500/600 - there is no point since it barely helps your parlay anyways

I wonder where did you see SA at -500...can you pointed me to the right book if you don't mind?

[dimon]

we are gonna make an absolute killing next wednesday brah


Kings at hornets

Cavaliers at heat

bucks at spurs

timberwolves at phoenix

4 teams on the road who have a combined 8 road wins all year


I'm gonna bet $1,000 dollars on it....should be an easy and free 1300-1600 dollars

Stay away from Phoenix

[edragonl]

yea, i gotta say phoenix may turn u down

[brahmabull117]

Stay away from Phoenix

really??

suns are 6-2 their last 8 home games and the t wolves have a horrendous record both on the road and against phoenix in recent years

[brahmabull117]

yea, i gotta say phoenix may turn u down

they are playing the timberwolves


pretty much the same thing as that washington game that they won by about 20 points

[8ArIvd5]

You can lose a ton of money really fast betting this way. Very rarely will this strategy work out in your favor in the long run.

Start a thread tracking your ML parlays throughout the rest of the season. I don't mean to bring negative vibes to your thread, but I honestly can't see this being profitable during the course of an entire season.

Do you think you can pick 3-4 SU winners on a day with 8-10 games being played?

[8ArIvd5]

look for good teams with very good home records playing teams with very bad road records. Pretty simple. Bad road teams in the NBA will almost never beat good teams on the road (even if the game is close, they find a way to choke)



avoid any sort of a situation where there is legit potential for a loss... for example the Spurs are always a fantastic team to parlay on moneylines but they play Atlanta on friday who is like 8-3 on the road...very real possibility of a loss there so you stay far away from that


in terms of road games, look for teams who have been playing great the last 5-10 days facing really bad teams. For example, the Heat play golden state on friday.... that is a great pick for any sort of a parlay as Miami will likely win in a blowout


also look at previous history... the lakers were a big red flag for today's game (they lost twice to the clippers last year and they are trailing again in this one)


generally speaking, road games are a big no no for these parlays unless you get a really bad team playing a team with a great road record (which is somewhat rare)

I like to look at the games and check the payouts with different combinations of teams to see which parlay has the best value. If I feel a team has a good shot at winning compared to the line I'll throw them in. Spurs on a -150 line would add a lot of value in that spot.

[eddie0vedder]

i have been doing this for a long time, it doesn't succeed. you might go 2 in a row or 3 in 4 days, but there is always an upset. like your 5 team today, bulls coulda easily gone down. ny scraped past but they were on the verge of losing. you just got lucky. post your plays, start a parlay ml thread and see how many units u come out with.

[Pride]

i have been doing this for a long time, it doesn't succeed. you might go 2 in a row or 3 in 4 days, but there is always an upset. like your 5 team today, bulls coulda easily gone down. ny scraped past but they were on the verge of losing. you just got lucky. post your plays, start a parlay ml thread and see how many units u come out with.

in the end it is the result that matters, not how it happened. you can take your lucky excuse and shove it up your ass tbh.

this is great if you pick your spots and have the intelligence to hedge certain plays.

[STC]

Agree, hedging plays a big part in this type of strategy. Especially because you'll get the right odds to do so...assuming your picks are short favorites.

In my experience, this isn't a long term winning strategy. Not to saying you don't ever hit but unfortunately favorites do lose, more often than you'd like. I've found for me personally, betting single plays is going to work better long term...but that's me. I could've been playing the wrong games.

Anyway, BOL

[itsthegoods]

its definitely hard to do this. maybe a 3 team ML parlay could be +EV, but that all depends if theres no juice.

either way im giving it a try, good luck

[themoneyshot978]

This is how I used to make my money when I bet NBA, what are your intentions of today?

Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers

New Jersey Nets
Dallas Mavericks

Orlando Magic
Portland Trail Blazers

Portland is coming off a strong win over Phx and the Clippers, but have been horrendous prior to these two games. But they did beat Orlando at home last year 102-87. Have any thoughts on a parlay for today?

[maxcraft]

you're a square in orlando..

[brahmabull117]

This is how I used to make my money when I bet NBA, what are your intentions of today? Boston Celtics Philadelphia 76ers New Jersey Nets Dallas Mavericks Orlando Magic Portland Trail Blazers Portland is coming off a strong win over Phx and the Clippers, but have been horrendous prior to these two games. But they did beat Orlando at home last year 102-87. Have any thoughts on a parlay for today?

no play for today for me


sixers have won 4 straight at home, portland and orlando is a toss up...dallas is really the only sure thing