[KC Needs Hockey]

I am going to post my NBA picks on here. I don't consider myself good or great for that matter just like to give some good insight. I have no real records of my picks history. Last year was my first year betting and I it was leisure betting at that. Still came out on top and going to use the tread to hold myself accountable. For everyones information. I have 4k spread out through a couple of sites and my unit that I bet is $20. Every time a bold a pick I am placing that bet on my sites. I am not really look for people to tail me but if you want the same disclaimers go don't bet too much and don't expect to win every single night everyone has their ups and everyone has their downs gl to anyone who reads!

[KC Needs Hockey]

Pick for today-
Washington vs Philidelphia Under - 192 betting 3 units
These two times have struggled big time so far this year. Phi is only averaging 91 points so far this year and Wash is only averaging 89 points. The two offensives are still trying to find themselves and don't expect them to find it this game as the refs will not be in their favor. The three refs officiating tonight's game are Bill Kennedy, Nicolas Buchert, and Bennie Adams the three combine have officiated 8 games and 6 of them went under. It would be a higher unit play if the two defenses were a little better both of them are averaging triple digits against so don't hit it to hard still really like the play! GL all.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Second and final pic for tonight-
LA Lakers vs Memphis Over H101.5 2 Units
For some reason LA has wanted to run the floor this year and hasn't stopped the holes in its defense. They are allowing right at 100 a game while dropping 110 per game on offense. The grizzlies defense is not going to slow them down either they allow close to 100 a game also. The reason for going on the half here is the grizzlies have buckled down in the fourth quarter so far this year only scoring 24 points and only allowing a abysmal 19 points on defense. The flip side is that in the first half the bucks have Griz have allowed and average of 54 points in the first half and in the last game dropped 34 in the first quarter. LA is slow and steady they are very even across the quarters. With the Griz coming out fast and the Lakers always there look for the over in this one. GL all.

[KC Needs Hockey]

65+ points in the fourth quarter no wonder the Wizards haven't won a game they were in control with their defense and then tried to play the out score you game stupid stupid o'well one more play tonight and then back at it tomorrow.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Well that wasn't even close halftime score Lakers 73 Memphis 46 for the total of the half to equal 119 a full 18 points over the halftime over. Still a little sour about the Wizards game they were easily on the way to the under after the 3rd period but nobody missed anything in the fourth.


Todays Results

1-1 for -1.3 units.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Only Play for 11/3
Orlando vs Minnesota U 201.5 bet 4 Units

This is going to be my heaviest play. Orlando's defense has only allowed 87.3 points per game so far this year including a game against the heat who just put up 130 (in all fairness it turned into a blow out at the end however.) One of the biggest reasons why Orlando's defense is so staunch is due to their offensive posessions. They like to take the shot clock down in a set offense and rarely run the court the shows in the fact that Orlando is averaging the fewest possesion by both teams per game. On the flip side Orlando's offense has not found its grove and is only averaging 89 points per game. Minnesota's defense has not been great but not bad and the same could be said for their offense both averaging right around the century mark. I had this game before the lines came out at the 193 range and 7 swing is rare hit this hard.

[steffypro]

Only Play for 11/3
Orlando vs Minnesota U 201.5 bet 4 Units

This is going to be my heaviest play. Orlando's defense has only allowed 87.3 points per game so far this year including a game against the heat who just put up 130 (in all fairness it turned into a blow out at the end however.) One of the biggest reasons why Orlando's defense is so staunch is due to their offensive posessions. They like to take the shot clock down in a set offense and rarely run the court the shows in the fact that Orlando is averaging the fewest possesion by both teams per game. On the flip side Orlando's offense has not found its grove and is only averaging 89 points per game. Minnesota's defense has not been great but not bad and the same could be said for their offense both averaging right around the century mark. I had this game before the lines came out at the 193 range and 7 swing is rare hit this hard.

What about the Toronto game? I really feel like 10 points is too much for a team that can put up some points.

[Raynor21]

Only Play for 11/3
Orlando vs Minnesota U 201.5 bet 4 Units

This is going to be my heaviest play. Orlando's defense has only allowed 87.3 points per game so far this year including a game against the heat who just put up 130 (in all fairness it turned into a blow out at the end however.) One of the biggest reasons why Orlando's defense is so staunch is due to their offensive posessions. They like to take the shot clock down in a set offense and rarely run the court the shows in the fact that Orlando is averaging the fewest possesion by both teams per game. On the flip side Orlando's offense has not found its grove and is only averaging 89 points per game. Minnesota's defense has not been great but not bad and the same could be said for their offense both averaging right around the century mark. I had this game before the lines came out at the 193 range and 7 swing is rare hit this hard.

Very insightful about Orlando's offensive game. I agree and am leaning towards the under on this as well. Nice write up.

BTW, the line is up to 203. Even more reason to hit this under. Squares think we're going to see another blowout.

[KC Needs Hockey]

"What about the Toronto game? I really feel like 10 points is too much for a team that can put up some points."

I was actually looking at that game my initial gut was to take Utah after what happened in Sac. with Toronto but there is something really interesting going on. Right now I have about 63% of the public taking Utah and line isn't moving that makes me think Toronto is the play. Will be real interesting to see how the line and public bets throughout tomorrow.

[Walt Thizzney]

"What about the Toronto game? I really feel like 10 points is too much for a team that can put up some points."

I was actually looking at that game my initial gut was to take Utah after what happened in Sac. with Toronto but there is something really interesting going on. Right now I have about 63% of the public taking Utah and line isn't moving that makes me think Toronto is the play. Will be real interesting to see how the line and public bets throughout tomorrow.

I watch every raptors game they play over the last 3 or 4 years

They are a weird bunch, you never know who will show up, Andrea is very talented and they can score in bunches. I don't like betting for or against them

[KC Needs Hockey]

I watch every raptors game they play over the last 3 or 4 years

They are a weird bunch, you never know who will show up, Andrea is very talented and they can score in bunches. I don't like betting for or against them

Im glad you chimed in there. I was looking and trends and researching after asked that question and what you said really backs up what I found. There where no real trends and no real obvious stats for the team. I agree with you that normally when you have no clue there is no reason to ever bet on the game but the line movement now has perked my interest. It could very well be that tomorrow the books will be playing the lines how you would think and there is nothing to it but right now its really odd and if there is one thing that I have learned its that you need to watch what vegas does. They know there shyt and are almost always on the winning side of things and the way the line is acting right now it would point towards Toronto. I will watch throughout the day and post around 4ish if there still something to it as for now its bed time!

[KC Needs Hockey]

Here is the Line graph that I look at generally when trying to predict line betting. "Normally" vegas tries to stay even on the lines but if you notice the betting trend has been right around 60% the whole time and vegas moved the line for a second but then brought it back to entice more people to bet on Utah. I am going to go ahead and make a small play here....

Take Toronto +10.5 bet 1 Unit

gl to anyone who tails and lets cheers tonight's victories

[steffypro]

Thanks TOR for the L. Now I know about the flip flop playing mentioned above. Got a push w Dallas last night too. Sigh.....hopefully tonight will be better. Good lock KC

[KC Needs Hockey]

Ok time to get back on track this is why you bet units and don't bet half your bank roll. Lets get this out of the way first....
Record for the year 1-3 for -6.8 units ouch. Going to get 5 of them back tonight however.

Chicago -4H at 3 units.

Chicago has been a good fast start team and I am not sold on New York. Chicago can score form almost every area on the court and has the better bigs look for them to run a way with the game I just like to stay away from numbers like -7 or -8 because a team can be up 10 to 12 with two to go and sub out starters and win by 5 or 6 play the half and watch Rose and Dang bring in the money

Portland -3h at 2 units
Oklahoma city is over rated and now on B2B roadies. Portland has been solid enough to take care of the OKC with their lack of big presence. The only reason I am not hitting this harder is OKC will be desperate and sometimes desperate teams do desperate things.


GL everyone hope and can get some of this back!

[KC Needs Hockey]

maybe u should fade me on this bad run lol

[KC Needs Hockey]

Ok split yesterday but was on the wrong end of the units. Bringing the total at 2-4 for -7.9 thats a lot of money I have given the books but I feel really good about tonight and I am still confident in my abilities so here we go.

New York Knicks -6 at 3 units
LA Lakers -13.5 at 3 units
Golden State +2.5 at 5 units

Those are the plays tonight if you want to discus why I would be glad to just at work right now and wanted to make sure that I got the post in so no one complains that I posted after the games start.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Well I needed that hit my 5 unit and pushed on the 3 units as LA just didn't start playing until the fourth quarter. This makes my record-

4-5 and -3.6 units finally won a night this season there will be a lot more to come!!! Picks will come midday tomorrow want to get some more data.

[KC Needs Hockey]

I have been looking at one game and really like the

Orlando -4h bet 4 units.

Easy numbers here. The line continues to move up meaning vegas is trying to get more people to be on the Bobcats. Orlando's best quarters stats wise is the first and Charlotte's worse quarter is the second because either bench is playing and they are awful or starters are playing nonstop and wearing down. All the stats are going the right way take the line and run before it gets any higher!

[steffypro]

Good job on the write ups KC. Thanks for sharing. I played Det 2 units last night and also a a 3 team parlay 1 unit. DET, NO, and PHO -6. Thanks to Nash missing his FT I lost that one

GOOD LUCK!

[KC Needs Hockey]

Yeah I had a lot of friends pissed at Nash but what can you do.
I really needed last night nailed the game right on the head too..... I felt like -7.5 was something the cats might cover and they did but orlando tends to be a really hot first quarter team.

Record so far on the thread.
5-5 for .6 units

I really don't have a feeling on any of the games but am going to be placing three small units on these games-

Boston ML (+110) 1 unit
Boston u100h 1 unit
LA Lakers o99h 2.5 units


Boston looks like the better team and OKC has struggled. There is no edge because both teams are on a b2b and I just don't see how the line started in favor of OKC all the casinos are every where this game with a majority of the them starting at +2.5 and dropping to +2.0 so that is the only thing keeping the ML a bigger play. I like the under in the first half because Boston's defense is by far statistically better in the first half. The only thing keeping this play a bigger one is the fact that OKC has had some sparatic monster runs even though they are few and far between it could always happen in this half.

The Lakers are always blazen out of the gate and I have personally played the over in the first half already and made me some nice money. As good as the Lakers are in the first half the Blazers are suspect on defense and get better in the second half.

BOL everyone on all their plays today!

[KC Needs Hockey]

Portland first quarter sank me well actually the Lakers Defense in the first quarter got me. Watching the game they played incredible defense the second quarter went how I thought both quarters would but O well. 2-1 today for -.4 units make the overall record-

7-6 for and +.2 units.

I am looking at two games tomorrow and wondering if anyone has any input.

Orlando over first half
Boston under

going to watch the lines over night and then decided maybe pull something else out for tomorrow who knows.

[THEGREAT30]

NBA is full of letdowns

[KC Needs Hockey]

I am going to go ahead and lock a pick in now while the line is where I like it write up tomorrow going to bed

Boston under 190.5 for 2 units

Gl and see you all tomorrow

[KC Needs Hockey]

Here is the write up and picks for todays game.

As mentioned above with one more unit because of the line is moving in favor-
Boston Under 190.5 for 3 units-
Both teams like to play tough defense and the numbers show it. This is a game of two very good records and should come with a little bit of a playoff atmosphere. The last time Boston played a game like this they held the very potent Miami offense in sever check and the Mavericks don't have near that fire power. With some planters foot on Rondo and a slower paced game expect this game to stay under.

Toronto even for 1 unit-
Just purely going off numbers. Toronto is better by far at home and has played well. They are only 1-5 but played a brutal stretch against some of the best teams in the league and all four of GSW wins have come at home and both of GSW losses were on the road. If this was at home I would expect GSW to be 4 points favorite but for my money tonight I like Toronto at home.

Orlando Over 99h for 2 units-
Purely a numbers play too. The best offense stats wise for both teams comes in the first half and even better the worse defense by Atlanta comes in the first half. Before the lines were released this mourning I had the game capped at 105h and 200 even for the game I like both of these to go over. I am staying away from the total over however because if one of these teams runs away with the game which both are capable both teams like to slow the game down. I think the half is the safer bet and I am moving on it.

BOL to all a happy picking.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Adding another unit two units on Boston under tonight. That Orlando game just killed me lost by one point and at half Oralando is 2-11 from three point ranged and there was two point blank dunks missed in this half just killer. Someone once told me though there is no right or wrong bets and even though this felt like the right bet i was actually a losing bet and that the bottom line Orlando is going to get my money back however cause this game isn't going over 185

[KC Needs Hockey]

Please no over time and I can make some money today if not I am in the hole huge. Lets go finish this in regular time.

[KC Needs Hockey]

And EXHALE! Well missed the two low units but hit the big five unit would have not even been close but OT was looming store ended up way under at 176 could even have made the under if it went into over time. Record evens back up at 8-8 but now up 1.9 units to the positive more plays tomorrow but I think I am talking to myself!

[KC Needs Hockey]

First play of the day-

Portland vs Detroit Half 96u bet 3 units-
I really like this play. Neither team shoots the three ball a lot they like to get the ball inside so you wont get burned form the arch. Both teams statistically defensively play their best ball especially in the 1st half and play poorly on offense in the first half. I was shocked when I saw that the under line opened at 188 for the game but half was 96. Normally when I look at stats like this the lines will read game 188 and half 92 or 93. Jump on this mistake and cash it to your books.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Second play is-
Cleveland vs New Jersey Under 195 for 2 units-
Besides the fact that both teams play better defense than they did last year both teams still have tendencies to struggle on offense. Another big contributor that makes me lean towards the under is the refs crew. They are a total of 6-2 under vs over and even more Derek Richard in his career officiating the nets is 7-1 in the under. Look for the refs to let them play and by letting them play watch two mediocre offensive play to the under.

[KC Needs Hockey]

First quarter killed me second quarter they only dropped 37 points exactly how the first should have went but instead they shot 70% mixed up the units yet again sitting at 9-9 for positive .3 units just cant break ahead to get some money solid profits.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Plays for today-

OKC vs Phili - First half Over 102 for 3 units
N.Y. Knicks -3.5

I don't think anyone is following this thread so wont do a write up unless someone request but have my reasons gl all and bol tonight.

[KC Needs Hockey]

And going to go ahead and pull the trigger on one more so these are my plays-

OKC vs Phili - First half Over 102 for 3 units
N.Y. Knicks -3.5 for 1 unit
Orlando -10.5 for 2 units

[KC Needs Hockey]

I am now 9-10 even on the units.... going to have two five unit plays tonight to blow up the books though.

[KC Needs Hockey]

Three picks tonight-

Heat vs Celtics over 185 - 5 units
LA Lakers -3 - 3 units
Bulls vs Warriors over 108h - 2 units

Gl and make it rain

[KC Needs Hockey]

now 11-11 with a 4.7 positive unit run.
Only play tonight

Toronto Raptors +14 for 4 units