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For some reason in a good mood after the one hit.
Well hit that one easy really wish that I would have bet the money line on that one but O well Doc sports had a free play to take Orlando glad I stuck with my instincts and also give me a boost of confidence. I am now at 12-11 hitting 52% but hitting all my big games for +8.7 units
Im rolling with the raptor again with the huge spread at 15.5 for 3 units line movement is making this the play good luck all.
Ok three plays tonight all based off line movement-
Toronto +15 3 units
Grizzlies ML 2 units
Bucks -7.5 2 units
If you want write ups i can give them just havent had anybody but me post on here lol
Well hit the bigger unit play and pushed on the two smaller units luckly the ML play was an +120 bet so taking all 5 units home today. Moving me up to 14-12 for 53% and totaling +15.7 units
Playing two games tonight I have---
Suns +9 for 1 unit
OKC -2.5 for 1 unit
Gl all and BOL for the year!
With the way line movement is going I am going to bump up the Suns to 2 units!!!
Went 1-1 but hit the bigger unit for a total of 16.6
Ok so now on the computer I am now 15-13 which is 53.5% but up 16.6 units so hitting the bigger units.
Only one play tonight-
Mavericks -4 for 3 units.
I am moving on this because the matchup looks up and down exactly same. Numbers wise these teams are almost identical in percentage offense and defense. I have to get the edge to the Mavericks just for being at home as they just beat Boston a much better team at home and a far better team in Dallas than they are on the road. I was just going to do 1 or 2 units but the line through vegas is even leaning towards Mavericks. Its odd 53% of the public is on NO but the line has moved to make NO the more juiced play as they started -4 for 110 and now most books have them at -4 for 108 and in some books 106. I feel better that vegas is on my side and moving the play up to 3 units.
Im going to have that free throw by Dirk haunt me for a couple of nights just brutal still would have only pushed but its better than losing 3 units will make them back up tomorrow or the next though. 15-14 for 13.3 units.
Three small wagers tonight.
I'm going with the public quickly before line movement changes-
LA Lakers -3 for 3 units
New York Knicks- +8 for 4 units
Over in Knicks game 218 for 2 units.
Altlanta -1 half for 3 units.
GL all
Well should have bought half a point for the Atlanta half and would have a cash but instead pushed and if the early results hold true only going to hit the four unit and miss the 2 and 3 unit hopefully things will change course should be fun to watch!
HUGE HUGE HUGE NIGHT!!!!Originally Posted by KC Needs Hockey
LA Lakers -3 for 3 units W
New York Knicks- +8 for 4 units W
Over in Knicks game 218 for 2 units. W
Altlanta -1 half for 3 units. and push
Puts me 18-14-01 = 56% and a total of +22.3 Units!!!
Some one help me out I really really like the play on Washington vs Boston -U94.5 1st Half. The stats show that this number is way to high and capping it last night I thought that the number would be around 89-91. I just don't know enough about Washington is there defense that good or are these numbers skewed?
Washington-
1st q defense only allowing 23 points 1st quarter offense only scoring 25 points
2nd q defense only allowing 24 points 2nd quarter offense only scoring 20 points
The Celtics use the normal formula; grind and pound the ball the first half and wear the team down to kill them in the second. Boston's defense in the first quarter only allows on average 42 points they do average 50 points score though. I just don't know if the numbers are off but if they are not washington's defense with lack of offense makes me think the score will be like 37-46 at half. If someone doesn't convince me differently will lock this later in a couple of hours.
Last edited by KC Needs Hockey; 11-17-10 at 07:22 PM. Reason: Had 2st change to 2nd (spelling correction)
OK its a lock moving two units on this play-
Boston vs Washington U94.5 (first half) for 2 units.
Ok got two more plays and I am done for tonight unless I see something crazy with the line movement
Boston u 94.5 (1st half) 2 units
Knicks +2 (1st half) 1 unit
Nets +11 1 unit
BOL and gl all. If you want a write up like usual just post that you do and I will just don't think people are reading and don't want to waste my time.
Let us talk about this game. The first myth that I want to bust right now is the Jazz home court advantage. The past years there was huge advantage to take into consideration with the Jazz when the were at home but not so much this year. The Jazz are only 2-2 at home straight up and those two wins came against the Raptors and Clippers and they were only able to beat the Clippers by 2. So there is not nearly as big an edge as most people would think. Second look at all the games they have struggled in or lost; clippers, warriors, suns, and nuggets. All these games the guards play was significant. In the nugget game the Jazz somehow made Billups and Affalo look good. I expect Devon Harris to look really good against this Jazz team as they have problems defending against good guards. The final reason against the Jazz is the inability to just flat beat a team. There has only been two games all year long that the Jazz has been able to beat by double digits Thunder and Raptors and both those games the other team shot significantly lower percentages than usual and don't tell me its because of the defense because the Jazz doesn't play defense any better than the next team (they allow 102.3 points a game and teams to shoot 37% from 3 both above the league ave). The Jazz miss Boozer and have not been able to put games out of reach they still might be winning by only by the skin of their backs. Now lets talk about the Nets. Miami and Orlando are the only two teams to beat the nets (both significantly better than the Jazz) by double digits and Orlando's game was earlier in the season, they recently just played and Orlando was only able to squeak out a win by two points. Farmar and Harris have looked really good distributing the ball and it seems like every game a new face is able to put the ball in the hole because of these assist men. Defensively they have been real good too only allowing opponents 95 a game (7 points under league ave). This has allowed the Nets to play close games with most teams and have been good against the spreads they have faced going 6-4 against the spread and 3-1 against the spread on the road. The refs don't trend to favor home or away teams (don't worry about them homering) so with all the above I look for this game to be 8 point or less win for the Jazz with an outside 10% chance the Nets pull the upset off.
Hope this helps!
Last edited by KC Needs Hockey; 11-17-10 at 02:13 PM.
Well unless they don't play a second quarter then I am garunteed a losing night. When you are wrong you are wrong and I was worried that Washington's defense stats where skewed and they were a good Boston offense is torching them. Live and learn was thinking about making this a 3 or 4 unit play so feel good didn't go crazy hope the other two hit tonight to limit damage.
Well not horrible actually went 2-1 but lost .2 units because of the juice I will take it, b/c the early game was over and I was staring at a 2 unit deficit tonight. Minimal losses moves me to 20-15-01= 57.1% and +22.1 units. Back at it tomorrow and always bol.
Glad I didn't make any picks tonight didn't feel great on any of them and would have went 1-3 on the hunches will find some winners tomorrow.
Going with these picks as usual anyone who request write up will get them good luck all.
Celtics -6.5 for 3 units
Bucks -4 for 2 units
Rockets -1.5 for 2 units
Warriors under 221 for 1 unit
GL all and as always BOL on everyones plays
Wow celtics line going nuts
making me worry I normally fade a line that move more than 3 points stay tuned for that play if you haven't already placed it.
Brutal night last night going to wait till a little closer to the games tonight because line movement was bad on all the plays and I knew it.
20-21-01 with a 15.6 positive units.
I don't think that anyone missed me but if you did I am sorry that night hurt and I learned to take a break because I get crazy and lose the profits from above I feel really good about tonight though
Sacramento +11.5 for 4 units
Orlando o195.5 for 2 units
Celtics +2.5 for 2 units
BOL everyone will be nice to get back in the win column.
Last edited by KC Needs Hockey; 11-22-10 at 10:58 PM. Reason: Forgot to bold the plays
Got the units messed up and lost the juice tonight grrrrr raises the recorded to 22-22-01 and units at 15.2 now with the loss of .4 will get them tomorrow damn it lol.
HELLLL YYYYAAAAYYYYY Sacramento came back from the grave and covered in the final quarter of the game moving me to 23-21-01 for 52.2% but a huge jump right back up to 23.2 units what a great end to the game and a great night got to love getting into the shower and then getting the notification that you went 3-0 today helllssss yay!
That's a great feeling. Great job KC!
No NBA plays have two NCAA plays but thats it.
Wont keep record of them on the NBA thread but take florida -17 and kentucky +3
OK I lied two NBA plays tonight based off of line movement-
Pistons +10 for 2 units
Hawks -2 for 2 units
BOL everyone
Pistons almost loss it but hold with the points. Hawks take it to overtime but don't pull it out in the end. So lose the juice and go 1-1 for the night.
Making a move on the suns for only 1 unit at -3. I think the bulls legs are tired and the bigs are hurting with gibson and boozer with injuries. Also on a back to back playing the Lakers last night in a good game that take a toll and finally they are playing thier 5th road game that rough. Nash will be back look for the suns to give you worries not covering in the first half but to wear them down and cover on a tired bulls team.
Nice write-up. I don't know why the line is so low....
I think the 5th road game factor is huge!
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