[Goat Milk]

What would be everyones first instinct. I'm curious.

[Pauulzcappin]

IDK yet. It's all up to what Phil is gonna do regarding Rondo driving in the paint and Ray Allen getting the baseline's 3s.

My first lean was Lakers ML but I'm even more confused now.

[t-wizzle]

What would be everyones first instinct. I'm curious.

I'm already on Boston but it's usually a good sign. It hasn't always meant a lot during these playoffs, but late money was all over Boston in Game 2 and i believe it was on LA in Game 1.

[shari91]

Well, I'm leaning LA so I'd stick with it. Screw the late money - sharps lost by taking Boston game 1 (maybe they even lost on game 2 - I didn't check and I really don't care) so there's no reason they can't lose again.

[Goat Milk]

I'm already on Boston but it's usually a good sign. It hasn't always meant a lot during these playoffs, but late money was all over Boston in Game 2 and i believe it was on LA in Game 1.

Sharps got buried game 1. They will lose after the finals are all said and done.

[Pauulzcappin]

So you think they are gonna get buried on game 3 again?

[t-wizzle]

Sharps got buried game 1. They will lose after the finals are all said and done.

Public was on Boston, not necessarily sharps.

[Goat Milk]

Public was on Boston, not necessarily sharps.

Sharps were on Boston as well. That's a fact.

[t-wizzle]

I don't know about that Goat but they sure as hell cleaned up in Game 2 both for the game and at the half.

Anyway, it's clear that the public is on Boston right now. If that's the case, why did the line move from 3 to 2.5 this morning?

[suicidekings]

What would be everyones first instinct. I'm curious.

That's going to happen regardless of which side is the right side.

[Goat Milk]

I don't know about that Goat but they sure as hell cleaned up in Game 2 both for the game and at the half.

Anyway, it's clear that the public is on Boston right now. If that's the case, why did the line move from 3 to 2.5 this morning?

Because the books don't want to give out LA ML for free

[PROfitableEnergy]

Well, I'm leaning LA so I'd stick with it. Screw the late money - sharps lost by taking Boston game 1 (maybe they even lost on game 2 - I didn't check and I really don't care) so there's no reason they can't lose again.

Where would you check this information?

How do I know where late money is?

What line change, point spread change would occur if the late money was on Boston?

[t-wizzle]

Because the books don't want to give out LA ML for free

Sharps hammered it down Goat.

[Goat Milk]

Sharps hammered it down Goat.

EDIT: Some sharps hammered it down.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Sharps hammered it down Goat.

What do you mean by this T-Wizzle?

Sharps choosing Boston forced the Lakers ML to be more advantageous for the square choosing LA?

[t-wizzle]

EDIT: Some sharps hammered it down.

Either way Goat, when you consider that the public is on boston, it takes a lot of money to move the spread and the moneyline by 15 cents.

[suicidekings]

I don't know about that Goat but they sure as hell cleaned up in Game 2 both for the game and at the half.

Anyway, it's clear that the public is on Boston right now. If that's the case, why did the line move from 3 to 2.5 this morning?

The degree to which the "public" is on varies in significance depending on when we're talking about. We're currently sitting at ~3400 wagers placed on the game with 57% on Boston, but by tip-off that number will most likely swell to at least 20,000 (Sport Insights). Public betting percentages mean nothing at this point. The only relevant info to glean from the early action is that when the line was released, there was immediate action on Boston, pushing it from BOS -2 to BOS -3 within a few minutes.

[t-wizzle]

What do you mean by this T-Wizzle?

Sharps choosing Boston forced the Lakers ML to be more advantageous for the square choosing LA?

Sharp money on the Lakers brought the price down from +140 to +125. When you consider that the public is on Boston, your first instinct would be that it should have moved against Boston and given you a more favorable LA price but the opposite happened.

[Goat Milk]

Suicide the sharp money is about even right now regardless Boston ML will get hammered tomorrow watch. Let's look at it from a different perspective (without the matchup diagnosis), how did Vegas make all their money game 2? LA 2nd half am I wrong? If LA is up after 1 47-45, everyone will hammer Boston 2H.

[Goat Milk]

T wizz the Sharps hit Boston right when it came out the sharp money is split for the most part maybe a little more on la considering its ML profits

[PROfitableEnergy]

Sharp money on the Lakers brought the price down from +140 to +125. When you consider that the public is on Boston, your first instinct would be that it should have moved against Boston and given you a more favorable LA price but the opposite happened.

So now what knowledge can you gain from this?

[t-wizzle]

The degree to which the "public" is on varies in significance depending on when we're talking about. We're currently sitting at ~3400 wagers placed on the game with 57% on Boston, but by tip-off that number will most likely swell to at least 20,000 (Sport Insights). Public betting percentages mean nothing at this point. The only relevant info to glean from the early action is that when the line was released, there was immediate action on Boston, pushing it from BOS -2 to BOS -3 within a few minutes.

Suicide, you are more informed when it comes to this stuff than i am so i can't really disagree with you. But i would say the move from -2 to -3 was a reaction to Boston's win and it is to be expected for all the money to come in on them right when the line opens after a win like that. Once some time passed, the majority of the big money came in on LA which explains why they are being juiced.

[PROfitableEnergy]

So as it stands the majority of sharps are on LA, and the public is hammering Boston?

[t-wizzle]

T wizz the Sharps hit Boston right when it came out the sharp money is split for the most part maybe a little more on la considering its ML profits

I said it was pretty split in another thread Goat.

[PAULYPOKER]

[t-wizzle]

So as it stands the majority of sharps are on LA, and the public is hammering Boston?

I don't think the majority of the sharps are on LA but i think that there is certainly some big time bettors on them because of the way it moved this morning.

[shari91]

So as it stands the majority of sharps are on LA, and the public is hammering Boston?

The best way for you to learn about tracking sharp money vs public wagers is to do a search on here about the topic or even on Google or else this thread will turn into something completely different than what Goat intended.

[suicidekings]

Where would you check this information?

How do I know where late money is?

What line change, point spread change would occur if the late money was on Boston?

Look at the SBR Odds page, and expand the matchup with the small arrow by the team names. Click on lines history and switch to Pinnacle line movements (usually Pinny is the best guide). Generally you're drawing conclusions from:

(1) Where the line opens and how it moves in the first ~30-60 minutes after opening
(2) How the line fluctuates between opening and to within an hour of tip-off
(3) Which direction the line moves in the last 60 minutes before tip-off

(1) & (3) are the most important because typically most bettors that have a clue are betting early or late. You can get an impression of which side is the right side by comparing those line movements to the public betting percentages to determine how the books reacted to action on each side. That gives you an impression of which side is the right side. However, this is only really obvious some of the time because typically (especially in the playoffs), there are valid arguments for both sides so the sharp money is split.

[PAULYPOKER]

Or you could just ask me Goat instead of confusing yourself with this wild conjecture...

[PAULYPOKER]

Privately that is..................

[shari91]

Privately that is..................

I think you and Goat give the Mods stuck with the job of reading PMs 80% of their business.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Thank you much Suicide, I will research this in great detail.

I don't think the majority of the sharps are on LA but i think that there is certainly some big time bettors on them because of the way it moved this morning.

What happened with the line which lead you to believe this, what was it last night, and what was it this morning?

What did you look at which made you say, "wow some big bettors are on LA" ?

Thanks for all the information guys.

[bigsmitty]

Nice explanation for those that needed Suicide-you're a good one. Cheers all.

[BigDaddy]

bet boston now

[t-wizzle]

Thank you much Suicide, I will research this in great detail.



What happened with the line which lead you to believe this, what was it last night, and what was it this morning?

What did you look at which made you say, "wow some big bettors are on LA" ?

Thanks for all the information guys.

Last night, early money came in on Boston and moved them from -2 to -3. This morning, the line moved against LA down to 2.5 indicating money on the Lakers.