[PROfitableEnergy]

Sharps usually bet opening lines, or late money correct?

So is it safe to assume alot of that is the square public?

[goduke]

So youre saying boston wins game 3? Do you think the series will end in boston like pierce said?

[PROfitableEnergy]

I see going back to LA up 3-2. If Lakers get swept in Boston that will be an impossible pill to swallow for them. Don't see it, but hope it to be so.

[capper123]

goat your a winner and you seem to have a good perspective on this series. im liking the under in game 3 hope you take it and win with it goat from one capper to the next.

[goduke]

I was actually asking goat my bad. I should of specified. I appreciate your opinion though. I just am curious his thoughts. I heard what lakerboy thinks and since Im a huge boston fan I dont want to listen but I wanted to see if others believe it too

[suicidekings]

Suicide the sharp money is about even right now regardless Boston ML will get hammered tomorrow watch. Let's look at it from a different perspective (without the matchup diagnosis), how did Vegas make all their money game 2? LA 2nd half am I wrong? If LA is up after 1 47-45, everyone will hammer Boston 2H.

I actually couldn't watch game 2, so I can't really comment on any of it, but that seems correct from what I saw after the fact. IMO, the value is on Boston tomorrow, but I'm not committed to the play yet. I think BOS 1H may be the smarter move.

[Mexes]

you should stay with your pick and not let late money on one side influence you

[Goat Milk]

That's going to happen regardless of which side is the right side.

you should stay with your pick and not let late money on one side influence you

Solid answers

[fishtot]

celts 1Q

[cadillac pete]

The Celtics take game 3...Taking them w/the ML.

[Jedi]

i agree with this post... insightful observation on behalf of GM...
odd. though..

coz he picked lakers, but late money usually means that somebody knows something..

[lakerboy]

Simple answer to the line move and where it stands right now. The initial move to -3 was from sharp action on boston. The shaprs are very split on this series right now and are trying to cash in both sides. The same sharps then pounded LA at +3 down to 2.5. The line should stay at 2.5 now most likely until gametime. Very unlikely it goes to 2 or 3. THe sharps also pounded LA ml , public doesnt move the ml 15 cents. If you have Boston -2(-110) for $3000 and LA ML +145 for $2500 you have a great opportunity to make some cash. If boston wins by 3 make $500. If la wins the game you make $325. The chance of Boston winning by 2 or less is slim.

[PROfitableEnergy]

what if i get +2.5 (110) for Bos and +125 for LA?

[lakerboy]

what if i get +2.5 (110) for Bos and +125 for LA?

where are you getting +2.5 for boston?

[shari91]

The line here just moved to +3 for LA.

Edit- And the ML went up to +130.

[SparJMU]

SuicideKings is absolutely right in everything he is saying, but remember line movement is only one indicator, its not giving away a free winning pick every night. Especially in the playoffs, as SuicideKings noted:

"However, this is only really obvious some of the time because typically (especially in the playoffs), there are valid arguments for both sides so the sharp money is split."

Following early and very late line movements is more useful at more obscure moments like regular season games and halftime lines where the bookmakers aren't necessarily devoting a lot of time and energy. In the NBA finals these lines are very sharp, and experienced handicappers disagree on the correct side.

[PROfitableEnergy]

where are you getting +2.5 for boston?

meant -2.5 of course... haven't slept all night, about to crash before the game.

On another note, for the sake of knowledge... can somebody take LakerBoys above example... and break it down in a mathematical formula which shows and proves his math? It will be a real good learning experience for me to see him or somebody take all those numbers, what we're risking, at what odds, etc and to arrive at the end with the profit he is stating we will receive from both wagers, in a win one, lose one situation, like he posted.

Thanks and appreciation to anyone who can do this and in sense prove his math.

[PROfitableEnergy]

with the boston wager, I am risking 3000 dollars to win 2727.272727272727, (I am assuming I would divide 1.1 into 3000?)

I then am left with 2727.2727272727.

I take my number 2727 and take 2500 out from the Lakers wager and it leaves me with 227 profit if Bos wins.

How did you get 500 dollars?

I assume my math is atrociously off, can you break this down for me please?

I have tried to calculate this every which way and can't seem to end up with 500 profit in this case.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Figuring it out the opposite way has me lost as well.

If Boston loses and LA wins?

[suicidekings]

Look at the SBR Odds page, and expand the matchup with the small arrow by the team names. Click on lines history and switch to Pinnacle line movements (usually Pinny is the best guide). Generally you're drawing conclusions from:

(1) Where the line opens and how it moves in the first ~30-60 minutes after opening
(2) How the line fluctuates between opening and to within an hour of tip-off
(3) Movement at Pinnacle at 7am Pacific on Gameday when the limits go up to the maximum.
(4) Which direction the line moves in the last 60 minutes before tip-off

(1) & (3) are the most important because typically most bettors that have a clue are betting early or late. You can get an impression of which side is the right side by comparing those line movements to the public betting percentages to determine how the books reacted to action on each side. That gives you an impression of which side is the right side. However, this is only really obvious some of the time because typically (especially in the playoffs), there are valid arguments for both sides so the sharp money is split.

I forgot something in this post. Corrected above. Again, not really relevant in the playoffs, but in the regular season the board lights up like crazy at 7am fairly frequently.

[PROfitableEnergy]

I forgot something in this post. Corrected above. Again, not really relevant in the playoffs, but in the regular season the board lights up like crazy at 7am fairly frequently.

what do you mean by "the limits go up to the maximum" ?

thank you for the info.

[suicidekings]

with the boston wager, I am risking 3000 dollars to win 2727.272727272727, (I am assuming I would multiply 1.1 by 3000?)

I then am left with 2727.2727272727.

I take my number 2727 and take 2500 out from the Lakers wager and it leaves me with 227 profit if Bos wins.

How did you get 500 dollars?

I assume my math is atrociously off, can you break this down for me please?

I have tried to calculate this every which way and can't seem to end up with 500 profit in this case.

BOS -2: 3300 to win 3000 = net gain of $500 (3000-2500)
LAL ML: 2500 to win 3625 = net gain of $325 (3625-3300)

You could always add a Boston wins by 1-2 (+1000) prop from 5Dimes to secure it, but it's probably not necessary.

[suicidekings]

what do you mean by "the limits go up to the maximum" ?

Betting limits start out limited on openers so if the books make a mistake it reduces the amount of damage that can occur before the market corrects the line. Limits go up closer to game time and are typically the highest on the day of the event. For Pinnacle (and many other books) those limits are raised at 7am Pacific time (8am Vegas time) on gameday.

[Shafted69]

Pierce said the celts are not going back to LA. Is Artest up to the challenge or will he go 1-10 shooting again? hmmm mmmmm mmmm

This game has Celts in a blowout written all over it.











-

[PROfitableEnergy]

BOS -2: 3300 to win 3000 = net gain of $500 (3000-2500)
LAL ML: 2500 to win 3625 = net gain of $325 (3625-3300)

You could always add a Boston wins by 1-2 (+1000) prop from 5Dimes to secure it, but it's probably not necessary.

surprised he would put the to win amount instead of what he's risking (why wouldn't he write, wagering 3300 to win 3000 instead of writing 3000 as if thats the amount hes wagering)... stupid confusing imo

[Goat Milk]

surprised he would put the to win amount instead of what he's risking (why wouldn't he write, wagering 3300 to win 3000 instead of writing 3000 as if thats the amount hes wagering)... stupid confusing imo

why do you have that picture in your avatar? You don't even know what a foul or travel is.

[PROfitableEnergy]

Why do you have a keyboard when you don't have enough brain power to type something intelligent?

[Superman_Punch]

Someone in Vegas told me 70% is on Lakers

[mundane]

PE and GM saga continues.... lulz!

[mundane]

anyway, how's the line movement? 3 hrs before tipoff.

[PuckCoach]

The late money will be on Boston tonight. Line will finish at 3.