[Kirby Zhang]

Guys, yesterday (Monday) was awful for me and I just don't understand why. I got on here and saw some trends, I saw there was significant line movement and I placed Three single wagers, anticipating moves.

the first was the NY/Mil total which opened at 204 and jumped to 206. I figured well, the sharps must be moving this and I better get it quick. I went to my book and bought this line down to 203, figuring paying the extra juice would be okay (-170) as long as there was a higher percentage. The line closed at 208.5 which I'm assuming I anticipated the move properly. I also did this with the Utah/Atlanta Under Getting it at 200 thinking both teams played the night before and both teams had to travel to Utah, the Portland scoring was awful in Portland on Sunday night so it must be a under. The line closed at 195, again I anticipated the proper move and again I lost. I also took Chicago by 2 and the line ended at -2.5. That was also a loss. So does this mean I should fade line movements? Should I wait until I am able to see the line movement and fade at the last moment. I just want to have a better understanding on what I did wrong.,, hope you guys can help

[Kirby Zhang]

anyone?

[kts]

kings - 2.5

[manidyon]

just bad luck for u.

[Kirby Zhang]

so should I fade the public or not? should I follow line trends or no?

[kts]

take kings -2.5 and thank me tomorrow

[2daBank]

i couldnt tell you about the totals as much but far as the Bulls/Wiz game goes it seemed obvious the sharp side was the Wiz with the Bulls being pounded at an alarming rate and the short line barely budging to me it was either wiz or pass

[Kirby Zhang]

I like the Kings -2.5 actually I think this is a set up for everyone looking at it Detroit. The line trend was actually in favor of Detroit heavily, but has drastically fallen... as shown below. what are your thoughts?

[Kirby Zhang]

i couldnt tell you about the totals as much but far as the Bulls/Wiz game goes it seemed obvious the sharp side was the Wiz with the Bulls being pounded at an alarming rate and the short line barely budging to me it was either wiz or pass

Thank you for your input, it does help and I did think that as well. I was wondering why it only moved .5, I like Oklahoma Thunder tomorrow, also there is reverse line movement on Illinois @ Michigan. 70/30 right now on Illinois and the line went from Mich -2.5 to -3... Seems like the Public moved the Phoenix game from 7 to 6.5... I like the thunder, what are your thoughts man?

[2daBank]

sac/det....think i can find a better game, action should be pretty split on that 1 and i just dont like taking teams that made trades until they prove to me they can play together......Dal and wash to this point are the only teams that made moves that have shown improvement as of yet

[2daBank]

Thank you for your input, it does help and I did think that as well. I was wondering why it only moved .5, I like Oklahoma Thunder tomorrow, also there is reverse line movement on Illinois @ Michigan. 70/30 right now on Illinois and the line went from Mich -2.5 to -3... Seems like the Public moved the Phoenix game from 7 to 6.5... I like the thunder, what are your thoughts man?

public has has had there moments in college hoops...i like fading the public but only when i can find a edge on the game...basically i look for every team getting hit 1 sided then try and pick apart the team they are on, unfortunately i seriously doubt i can ride with mich as they have proven to have absolutely no heart....obviously someone with deep pockets got down on them early and maybe they know something but i couldnt tell you what it is.......far as Okc goes normally i dont bet a team there 1st game home from a long road trip, if they wouldnt have had the days rest i would fade them but seeing how they had a day off and the fact phx isnt anything special probably another pass for me.....sorry im kinda picky when it comes to games i bet

[Kirby Zhang]

Detroit 2-10 in Sacramento... hmmmm

[2daBank]

just dont trust sac town until i see how Landry fits in....last week would have bet them for sure and they could easily win just dont like betting things i dont feel more sure of

[Kirby Zhang]

public has has had there moments in college hoops...i like fading the public but only when i can find a edge on the game...basically i look for every team getting hit 1 sided then try and pick apart the team they are on, unfortunately i seriously doubt i can ride with mich as they have proven to have absolutely no heart....obviously someone with deep pockets got down on them early and maybe they know something but i couldnt tell you what it is.......far as Okc goes normally i dont bet a team there 1st game home from a long road trip, if they wouldnt have had the days rest i would fade them but seeing how they had a day off and the fact phx isnt anything special probably another pass for me.....sorry im kinda picky when it comes to games i bet

your supposed to be picky, that's how you make money instead of lose it. This is outrageous 83% on phoenix. I'm waiting till tomorrow. if it hasn't gone below 6 you know its good.

[kts]

how about thunder - suns over 201.5? seem pretty low don't you think
previous h2h total was set at 213 now its only 201.5

[2daBank]

sac town may drop to -2 before long if you really like them....hoping ppl keep pounding Por and drive the line up some more may play the nets....gonna be hard to pass up the 11.5 with the Hornets against a cle team that is yet to find themselves....those two and maybe 1 more i will watch not sure if i play any yet...

[Kirby Zhang]

I don't think Nash is playing, that has a huge... and I mean huuuuuge effect on game totals, if Phoenix doesn't show up then it'll be under something like 105 to 86... or something... if Phoenix does show up it could be all defense 98 to 95 or something like that, Phoenix at home with Nash is what makes the overs huge.. and because of huge over unders both teams have a high Under ranking...

Phoenix O/U 24-32
Thunder O/U 25-29

that's why I started this post in the long run, I don't have a terrible time picking, but I want to develop something consistent with trend following/fading... the Over doesn't look bad not that it's so low, but quite honestly it's probably a better idea to wait right before the game when the total swells to 205 ir 206 and fade it all day..

[Kirby Zhang]

sac town may drop to -2 before long if you really like them....hoping ppl keep pounding Por and drive the line up some more may play the nets....gonna be hard to pass up the 11.5 with the Hornets against a cle team that is yet to find themselves....those two and maybe 1 more i will watch not sure if i play any yet...

I really feel like the Cleveland game is a set up. Vegas set the line high on purpose for people to think NO easily, when in reality Cle losing three in a row to tough teams very well could run over NO because they are frustrated... Like basically "FUUUCK man, finally a team we can beat the shit out of" Denver did some good work to Lebrone and the boys, If Vegas wanted you to take NO they'd put the line below ten maybe +9.5... I know it's a lot of chulk but I say PASS on that all day, it just seems like a set up, Cle at home, working through hard times and finally getting to vent some frustration.. neg... Nets I like... wow, never thought I'd ever say that seriously.. lol

[2daBank]

Nash has missed some games this year right? if so how has phx done w/o him?

[2daBank]

Nets have been solid and my guess is they will be a good bet a lot of games the rest of the way...certainly see what you are saying with cle the thought did cross my mind, however you could argue that oddsmakers know it doesnt matter what they make the line they will still get a lot of cle action

[Kirby Zhang]

Im not exactly sure how to look that up, but I will say this, 201 is THE LOWEST no exaggeration THE LOWEST total Phoenix has had this year... Wtf...screams under all day, wait til right before tip off and hit that under, I really think people will boost it to 206

[2daBank]

i think you over thinking this a little as many times they dont know either and how could they in this 1? there really not much way of knowing when cle will click and get it all going the right direction and this is a pretty safe line as undoubtedly they gonna get ppl like me that feel that is to many points and other folks that will ride with cle regardless of the line....after all many times there ultimate goal is to get 50/50 action and i believe it should be somewhat close with this line

[Kirby Zhang]

Nets have been solid and my guess is they will be a good bet a lot of games the rest of the way...certainly see what you are saying with cle the thought did cross my mind, however you could argue that oddsmakers know it doesnt matter what they make the line they will still get a lot of cle action

I dont know man Cle does get a lot of action though, but lately hasn't covered anything I think people would be wary of that

[2daBank]

Im not exactly sure how to look that up, but I will say this, 201 is THE LOWEST no exaggeration THE LOWEST total Phoenix has had this year... Wtf...screams under all day, wait til right before tip off and hit that under, I really think people will boost it to 206

yea i could easily see a under here...sometimes it tough for me to tell with okc against teams like this as they are capable of playing excellent D but can beat teams like this with offense

[Kirby Zhang]

i think you over thinking this a little as many times they dont know either and how could they in this 1? there really not much way of knowing when cle will click and get it all going the right direction and this is a pretty safe line as undoubtedly they gonna get ppl like me that feel that is to many points and other folks that will ride with cle regardless of the line....after all many times there ultimate goal is to get 50/50 action and i believe it should be somewhat close with this line

true, I typically don't like any spreads over 10... like I said we need to watch what happens tomorrow before tip off, if it doesn't move I might consider buying three points and taking Cle -8.5 (-170) if it does move down we'll see how far it gets... otherwise I'd just pass... Phoenix @ thunder my fav so far..

[2daBank]

I dont know man Cle does get a lot of action though, but lately hasn't covered anything I think people would be wary of that

id be really surprised if this didnt end up right around 50/50 as the ppl that have been losing with cle arnt going anywhere as im sure they think they are due...probably a pass for me but the points are very tempting

[2daBank]

i hate even the thought of buying points....hurts my head to think about paying that much juice

[Kirby Zhang]

yea i could easily see a under here...sometimes it tough for me to tell with okc against teams like this as they are capable of playing excellent D but can beat teams like this with offense

Man I really got worked yesterday,

Mil/NY Over 203.5 loss (Line closed at 208.5), Chicago -2 Loss (Chi -2.5 close), Atlanta/Utah Under 200 Loss (Line closed at 195.5) **** man. I got the best value and anticipated everything and still got killed, which leads me to believe I may have anticipated the move correctly, however used to information incorrectly.... What do you think?

[2daBank]

ill buy the hook at times as i cant stand to lose by a half point but that is it

[Kirby Zhang]

i hate even the thought of buying points....hurts my head to think about paying that much juice

AAAAAmen to that brother, I'm going to hit the hay, but look at things in the AM... oh wait... it is the AM.. **** my life. lol I'll see what I'm going to do tomorrow though... did you place yours yet?

[2daBank]

Man I really got worked yesterday,

Mil/NY Over 203.5 loss (Line closed at 208.5), Chicago -2 Loss (Chi -2.5 close), Atlanta/Utah Under 200 Loss (Line closed at 195.5) **** man. I got the best value and anticipated everything and still got killed, which leads me to believe I may have anticipated the move correctly, however used to information incorrectly.... What do you think?

i really dont got a clue how steam moves do in the NBA and the totals were obviously some serious steam....id say you got good lines and didnt really do anything wrong except buying those points, damn that....you know how i felt about chi/wash.....only thing i played was atl+5 and ml , also went 3-1 on the college side so it was a good day for me

[Kirby Zhang]

i really dont got a clue how steam moves do in the NBA and the totals were obviously some serious steam....id say you got good lines and didnt really do anything wrong except buying those points, damn that....you know how i felt about chi/wash.....only thing i played was atl+5 and ml , also went 3-1 on the college side so it was a good day for me

reverse line moves on MIch... heres what I am thinking for tomorrow

[2daBank]

AAAAAmen to that brother, I'm going to hit the hay, but look at things in the AM... oh wait... it is the AM.. **** my life. lol I'll see what I'm going to do tomorrow though... did you place yours yet?

naw i tend to wait unless i see a line i think is gonna move against me like atl yesterday.....if im playing the nets im sure it not going down hoping it goes up.....peace, gl today

[Kirby Zhang]

NCAA
---------------
Illinois @ Mich -3

NBA

Phoenix @ OKC -6 (buying hook)
Nets +8
Cleveland -11
Sacramento -2.5

just what I like.. these are offically not my picks I'll finalize tomorrow and probably start another thread.

[migz]

Kirby Zhang, i'm with you on Cle. Public's betting on NO, and will it move? Should i pound this for tom? What do you think?