1. 02-23-10 08:09 AM #36
    balls2wall
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby Zhang View Post
    Guys, yesterday (Monday) was awful for me and I just don't understand why. I got on here and saw some trends, I saw there was significant line movement and I placed Three single wagers, anticipating moves.

    the first was the NY/Mil total which opened at 204 and jumped to 206. I figured well, the sharps must be moving this and I better get it quick. I went to my book and bought this line down to 203, figuring paying the extra juice would be okay (-170) as long as there was a higher percentage. The line closed at 208.5 which I'm assuming I anticipated the move properly. I also did this with the Utah/Atlanta Under Getting it at 200 thinking both teams played the night before and both teams had to travel to Utah, the Portland scoring was awful in Portland on Sunday night so it must be a under. The line closed at 195, again I anticipated the proper move and again I lost. I also took Chicago by 2 and the line ended at -2.5. That was also a loss. So does this mean I should fade line movements? Should I wait until I am able to see the line movement and fade at the last moment. I just want to have a better understanding on what I did wrong.,, hope you guys can help



    I was on the opposite sides of those totals, but lost the CHI play with you.


    It sounds like you anticipated the moves correctly. I don't have a lot of advice on line movement. However, the one suggestion I would give is not to buy points all the way to -170. I would occasionally buy it to -120 if needed, but wouldn't go past that.
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  2. 02-23-10 08:28 AM #37
    cecbo
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    If you are buying that many points, you might as well stay away from the bet or just go the other way.
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  3. 02-23-10 09:08 AM #38
    Wilforth
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    You can't reach a permanent resolution on line movements based on one day's experience!
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  4. 02-23-10 09:21 AM #39
    CHAZ
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    Don't worry about the trends or line movements. Do your research decide on what you think it should be and go from there. Trends are meant to be broken.
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  5. 02-23-10 03:01 PM #40
    Kirby Zhang
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    Quote Originally Posted by migz View Post
    Kirby Zhang, i'm with you on Cle. Public's betting on NO, and will it move? Should i pound this for tom? What do you think?

    As far as the Cleveland game goes I would pass, I thought it would be more of a lopsided consensus however it's not. Cleveland could easily blow them out, but 11.5 is a lot to lay down. I don't like it.
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  6. 02-23-10 03:02 PM #41
    Kirby Zhang
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    alright I'm going to do my picks here momentarily
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  7. 02-23-10 03:46 PM #42
    DOPEMAN
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    I have better results using RLM when playing ATS not O/U
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