its all penetrating bait. why is this line so low? this line should be -10 but the books want to keep some of you intrested in toronto to keep the books even.
this is another cavs ass whooping.
Cavs -7.5 -110 x5.5u
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05-03-17 10:23 AM #1
Bait
Last edited by JayDr3am; 05-03-17 at 11:45 AM.
Points Awarded:
nistohm gave JayDr3am 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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05-03-17 12:03 PM #2
will be looking at halftime
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05-03-17 12:35 PM #3
GL Man.
Originally Posted by JayDr3am
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05-03-17 12:40 PM #4
that would imply that the majority is reading into a reverse psychology strategy by the books....
I don't think that is the case.
The line at 7.5 instead of 10 is not luring money to Toronto side of the books. If anything, it would create a 'no play' or heavy Cleveland play.
I understand what you're saying, I just don't think the books are playing a reversed, reverse psychology game
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05-03-17 12:45 PM #5
Too many assuming the book holds a crystal ball to the outcome and are playing mind games with the bettors...
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05-03-17 12:58 PM #6
haha yeah thats just my personal opinion.. the books are so mysterious and secret i have no choice but to think they try to trick or run some game on you.. i may be wrong but its just my opinion Originally Posted by The Hat
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05-03-17 12:59 PM #7
cavs ML 44? Originally Posted by 44 Mag
GL Man.
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05-03-17 01:00 PM #8
Thats a lock...brother jay!! Cheers mein!!
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05-03-17 01:10 PM #9
Originally Posted by vegaschulo
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05-03-17 03:03 PM #10
i also think the rockets cover back to back games.. the spurs are "supposed" to win this game and tie it up but i could see the rockets blowing the doors off of san antonio again..
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05-03-17 03:11 PM #11
addition:
cavs -7 -110 x10.5u
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05-03-17 03:13 PM #12
addition:
Cavs -4.5 -160 x3.5u
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05-03-17 04:56 PM #13
I really like these two series i get a better grasp of these games..raps are bums and spurs are old..lol..dont care for Celtic's series as far as betting lol..Washington will tie it 2-2 they play better at home..warriors are far superior but never trust them to cover so i stay away..we on same picks again. .BOL Jay dawg!!!
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05-03-17 05:41 PM #14
What exactly makes this a bait line? Public is still slamming cavs.
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05-03-17 05:54 PM #15
this does not speak well towards your blowout analysis Originally Posted by JayDr3am
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05-03-17 06:52 PM #16
alot of toronto action came in though.. of course the public is going to slam lebron. Originally Posted by Time is Money
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05-03-17 07:02 PM #17
lol things happen sometimes.. you know this Originally Posted by The Hat
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05-03-17 07:25 PM #18
eh its not really a bait line as the title entailed.. but alot of people bit on the +7.5 thinking the raptors bounce back and cover game 2.. when i really dont think that will be the case Originally Posted by Time is Money
Last edited by JayDr3am; 05-03-17 at 08:18 PM.
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05-03-17 07:40 PM #19
Joy, you've done went and gone full blown schizophrenic...c'mon man! lol Originally Posted by JayDr3am
Last edited by The Hat; 05-03-17 at 07:52 PM. Reason: changed Jay to Joy
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05-03-17 08:33 PM #20
you said you understood what i was saying though.. so what does that make you?? Originally Posted by The Hat
haha but seriously why was this line so low? why wasnt the spread -13 like golden state?
maybe it wasnt really "bait" but keeping the line this low screwed with alot of bettors heads.. this line didnt touch -8.. yeah the public probably pounded cavs but why not movement? it moved a half point then back down to 7.. some toronto action had to come in
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05-03-17 08:39 PM #21
maybe my title was a little misleading.. i tried to go in the mind of a oddsmaker lol cause this line shouldnt have been this low, but it was.. now why was it damn it??
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05-03-17 08:45 PM #22
especially since the cavs blew the doors off of toronto. the cavs are the defending champions.. have the best player in the world on their team, and their at home, and their spread is 2x lower than golden states lol
and not to forget, golden state didnt even cover the line.
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05-03-17 09:03 PM #23
Spurs live spread is still low.. i think spurs wake up and win this game comfy
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05-03-17 09:06 PM #24
just messing with you man. you're reading too much into the line and late action, etc.... that kind of analysis is more for football when you're dealing with key numbers and not a zillion possessions per team per game.. Originally Posted by JayDr3am
again, the books don't hold a crystal ball to what the outcome of a game is. you'll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out their logic. Just look how much you flipped back and forth just in this post.
Teams play to win games, their goal is not to win by 8, 9 points etc...
In football, we see teams offensively strategizing play based on what the current score is and the key numbers 3, 4, 7 factor into play more so..... basketball is a gazillion posessions......
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05-03-17 09:18 PM #25
....the 'right play' is Houston plus the points. Sometimes the 'right play' doesn't always win.... But, if Hou/San played 10 times on the Spurs court and Houston got 6 points each game, Houston covers 6 or 7 times. Always take that many points when dealing with a team with that much firepower... percentage play. Not a spot play.
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05-03-17 09:18 PM #26
im not saying they have this crystal ball you keep referring.. but i do think they put actual thought into these lines. i dont think they are just throwing up anything.. especially in the most important part of the season. maybe during regular season but not during playoffs. everything alot more calculated. it has to be. Originally Posted by The Hat
just messing with you man. you're reading too much into the line and late action, etc.... that kind of analysis is more for football when you're dealing with key numbers and not a zillion possessions per team per game..
again, the books don't hold a crystal ball to what the outcome of a game is. you'll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out there logic. Just look how much you flipped back and forth just in this post. Teams play to win games, there goal is not to win by 7, 8, 9 points etc...
In football, we see teams offensively strategizing play based on what the current score is and the key numbers 3, 4, 7 factor into play more so..... basketball is a gazillion posessions......
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05-03-17 09:21 PM #27
what makes houston + the points the 'right pick'? thats your own thought up opinion, right? why isnt san antonio -5 the right spot? especially after how game 1 went? ... Originally Posted by The Hat
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05-03-17 09:28 PM #28
i'm speaking in terms of playing the right percentage play.. Originally Posted by JayDr3am
IMO, if Hou/San play 10 time on the Spurs floor with Houston getting 6 points each game, you'd prob see:
Hou win 3 or 4 outright
Hou lose 3 or 4 close games
Hou get beat by more than six in 3 or 4 of the games...
Just looking at it from a different angle than you. Game 2 generally one of the tougher games of the series to spot play based on game 1
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05-03-17 09:30 PM #29
and im kind of rhetorically asking "why" lol
i mean simply trying to talk about the line and why its so low and havent moved.. you might sound a little crazy
lol
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05-03-17 09:31 PM #30
Houston is a team that will always be in the game regardless of the deficit.... not like a Utah or Memphis
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05-03-17 09:32 PM #31
thats the beauty of this.. everyone has a different way of viewing it. Originally Posted by The Hat
Points Awarded:
The Hat gave JayDr3am 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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05-03-17 09:37 PM #32
I wouldn't consider the 7.5 Cavs line to be low at the start of the game even though I agreed Cleveland would win be double digits and I had Cleveland as well. Toronto is an experienced 2nd round playoff team, so 7.5 was not surprising to me Originally Posted by JayDr3am
and im kind of rhetorically asking "why" lol
i mean simply trying to talk about the line and why its so low and havent moved.. you might sound a little crazy lol
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05-03-17 09:39 PM #33
im not really reading into anything too much lol im saying the line should have been -10.. thats all im saying. am i right or wrong? and it was -7.5 which in my opinion, was way too low. i mean i must have been right.. the cavs won by 22 points.. Originally Posted by The Hat
just messing with you man. you're reading too much into the line and late action, etc.... that kind of analysis is more for football when you're dealing with key numbers and not a zillion possessions per team per game..
again, the books don't hold a crystal ball to what the outcome of a game is. you'll drive yourself crazy trying to figure out their logic. Just look how much you flipped back and forth just in this post. Teams play to win games, their goal is not to win by 8, 9 points etc...
In football, we see teams offensively strategizing play based on what the current score is and the key numbers 3, 4, 7 factor into play more so..... basketball is a gazillion posessions......
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05-03-17 09:43 PM #34
well, you're speaking of how calculated the set line is and how the books put actual thought into it.... and then you're also saying that it should have been 10 instead of 7.5 ???? Originally Posted by JayDr3am
which is it?
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05-03-17 09:43 PM #35
Disagree with you on this one JayD. Line is for betting purposes not to determine results. This is normal for a series, they arnt really gonna move it with it being just Game 2 same location. Made by power ratings, if you go by that then it shouldnt have even been high as -7, but theyre the Cavs so their not gonna make it -4 or anything, itd get bet out the roof. These nba playoff lines are bumped up a little like college conference game lines with a strong emphasis on protecting home court. Guess it depends on which ratings you look at but sag has Raps a tick higher than Cavs which is crazy to me. I kinda think they dont go by power ratings so much in playoffs by lines I see, seems its geared more towards results in reg. season between the two, especially the totals, I could be wrong though. Originally Posted by JayDr3am
im not really reading into anything too much lol im saying the line should have been -10.. thats all im saying. am i right or wrong? and it was -7.5 which in my opinion, was way too low. i mean i must have been right.. the cavs won by 22 points..
Last edited by jtoler; 05-03-17 at 09:51 PM.
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