[The Hat]

just because a team wins by 22 and the line was only 7, doesn't mean it should have been higher. If that was the case, then a 15 point line wouldn't be right either, huh?

books deal with calculated risk. Percentages. Similar to insurance

[JayDr3am]

well, you're speaking of how calculated the set line is and how the books put actual thought into it.... and then you're also saying that it should have been 10 instead of 7.5 ????

which is it?

well youre making it seem like the oddmakers put 0 thought into these lines.. you would like to think, around playoff time, (the most important part of the season, where they probably make the most money..) that they would put some kind of thought into what the line should be.. vs just throwing up a number like youre pretty much implying they do..

[JayDr3am]

Disagree with you on this one JayD. Line is for betting purposes not to determine results. This is normal for a series, they arnt really gonna move it with it being just Game 2 same location. Made by power ratings, if you go by that then it shouldnt have even been high as -7, but theyre the Cavs so their not gonna make it -4 or anything, itd get bet out the roof. These nba playoff lines are bumped up a little like college conference game lines with a strong emphasis on protecting home court. Guess it depends on which ratings you look at but sag has Raps a tick higher than Cavs which is crazy to me.

its okay to disagree, this is a discussion

[JayDr3am]

yeah i know the line isnt to determine results.. but you would think they would make a bigger line adjustment than just 1.5? not -2? -2.5 line adjustment?

[JayDr3am]

in that case, why even change the line? why not just keep it the same?

[IBetYou]

Game 2 lines are always very close to game 1 lines barring injuries, so no they don't put too much thought into it. They don't need to -I don't know if you've noticed but predicting scores on a consistent basis is difficult!

[JayDr3am]

i'm speaking in terms of playing the right percentage play..

IMO, if Hou/San play 10 time on the Spurs floor with Houston getting 6 points each game, you'd prob see:

Hou win 3 or 4 outright
Hou lose 3 or 4 close games
Hou get beat by more than six in 3 or 4 of the games...

Just looking at it from a different angle than you. Game 2 generally one of the tougher games of the series to spot play based on game 1

and reading this again..

i dont really agree with this.. it doesnt make you wrong, but i dont agree. you have to look at these games 1 by 1 you cant view it in a 10 game span. you have to watch and actually know basketball in times like these. with how houston blew san antonio out game 1, that makes san antonio -5.5 auto pick next pick if you want to play percentages. no way in hell houston shoots how they did in game 1, again in game 2.. theres your percentage right there

[shocka1212]

You've done well capping this cavs series..

[The Hat]

well youre making it seem like the oddmakers put 0 thought into these lines.. you would like to think, around playoff time, (the most important part of the season, where they probably make the most money..) that they would put some kind of thought into what the line should be.. vs just throwing up a number like youre pretty much implying they do..

I'm not making it seem as if 0 thought. That is your assumption and perception because I don't think the set line should have been higher.

[The Hat]

and reading this again..

i dont really agree with this.. it doesnt make you wrong, but i dont agree. you have to look at these games 1 by 1 you cant view it in a 10 game span. you have to watch and actually know basketball in times like these. with how houston blew san antonio out game 1, that makes san antonio -5.5 auto pick next pick if you want to play percentages. no way in hell houston shoots how they did in game 1, again in game 2.. theres your percentage right there

my logic is based on Houston's strengths and style of play. Now, I think Cleveland is better than Houston, BUT I wouldn't be as comfortable taking Cleveland and 6 points on San's court... I know that won't make sense to you, no disrespect meant at all. Good luck brotha

[JayDr3am]

I'm not making it seem as if 0 thought. That is your assumption and perception because I don't think the set line should have been higher.

haha since none of us literally know what the fuckk were talking about, isnt it all assumption and perception? thats what it should be called instead of handicapping.. "assumption and perception" lol

[JayDr3am]

my logic is based on Houston's strengths and style of play. Now, I think Cleveland is better than Houston, BUT I wouldn't be as comfortable taking Cleveland and 6 points on San's court... I know that won't make sense to you, no disrespect meant at all. Good luck brotha

no i see where youre coming from.. so it does make 'sense' to me.. i just dont agree with it.

[JayDr3am]

You've done well capping this cavs series..

thanks.. my personal speculation of this series, based off of how game 1 went, i think the line should have adjusted more than 1.5 points. i could be wrong.. people could disagree.. i just think the raptors are a bad basketball team.. well vs the cavs that is. they dont match up in any aspect.

[JayDr3am]

You've done well capping this cavs series..

i may only make picks in this cavs series lol

[The Hat]

Jay, for Game 3, what would the line need to be at for you to take Toronto?

...and what would it need to be at for you to make a 'no play' decision?

[JayDr3am]

my logic is based on Houston's strengths and style of play. Now, I think Cleveland is better than Houston, BUT I wouldn't be as comfortable taking Cleveland and 6 points on San's court... I know that won't make sense to you, no disrespect meant at all. Good luck brotha

& there was really no disrespect taken until you said that lol but BOL to you too.

[JayDr3am]

Jay, for Game 3, what would the line need to be at for you to take Toronto?

...and what would it need to be at for you to make a 'no play' decision?

to take toronto, for me personally.. it would have to be -3. or -2.5..

but if its raptors -5 or -6 i would pass. an were talking game 3 here.. game 3 is a change of weather. the cavs will seem broken game 3 watch.

[The Hat]

to take toronto, for me personally.. it would have to be -3. or -2.5..

but if its raptors -5 or -6 i would pass. an were talking game 3 here.. game 3 is a change of weather. the cavs will seem broken game 3 watch.

ok gotcha, that's fair. Most people don't put any pre-line thought into the game. They wait til the line posts and then look for ways to justify betting on the team that they want to root for.

Me personally, I won't be taking Toronto even if it's Toronto plus 5 (which it won't be)

[JayDr3am]

and ive seen the cavs completely go limp.. last year in the playoffs vs toronto they did it.. they seemed unstoppable game 1 & 2 but game 3 in toronto, toronto couldnt miss..

so..
just to follow the script.. i will be looking to play toronto.. i have to see the line and if its where i think it should be, i will probably bite.

[JayDr3am]

ok gotcha, that's fair. Most people don't put any pre-line thought into the game. They wait til the line posts and then look for ways to justify betting on the team that they want to root for.

Me personally, I won't be taking Toronto even if it's Toronto plus 5 (which it won't be)

yeah i kind of make up my own reasonable line.. nothing special. no special formulas written down or whatever lol i try to be as reasonable as possible and ill play it accordingly..

saying the cavs line today should have been 10 instead of -7.5 could be seen as unreasonable lmao but thats just how i read it.. well atleast -8 or -8.5?? atleast a 2pt adjustment.. sheesh

[The Hat]

I don't think DeRozan or Lowry pose enough threat to the Cavs. They're not matchup problems at all for Cleveland.

The 'Should Be' line is where it would generate fairly even action without a huge initial jump either way

[JayDr3am]

I don't think DeRozan or Lowry pose enough threat to the Cavs. They're not matchup problems at all for Cleveland.

The 'Should Be' line is where it would generate fairly even action without a huge initial jump either way

which is -3 or -5 IMO

and dont ask me where i got those numbers lol i just pull them out of my ass with a hint of reason to them.

[The Hat]

just remember, the late action/late money coming in is not always the sharp money

[JayDr3am]

just remember, the late action/late money coming in is not always the sharp money

yeah sometimes it could just be the oddmakers moving the lines around for god know what.. its all mysterious..

[The Hat]

to take toronto, for me personally.. it would have to be -3. or -2.5..

but if its raptors -5 or -6 i would pass. an were talking game 3 here.. game 3 is a change of weather. the cavs will seem broken game 3 watch.

looks like it's Toronto +2....which is 4 or 5 points in your capping favor if you need Toronto to be at -2.5 or -3.

expecting a 10 unit play out of you. I doubt it moves towards even, Toronto not even competitive in the first two games

[JayDr3am]

looks like it's Toronto +2....which is 4 or 5 points in your capping favor if you need Toronto to be at -2.5 or -3.

expecting a 10 unit play out of you. I doubt it moves towards even, Toronto not even competitive in the first two games

well right now, its a no play.. dont like the line.

[The Hat]

well right now, its a no play.. dont like the line.

how can you say you don't like the line?? You just said if Toronto was -2.5 or -3 it was a play....and if it was Tor -3 to Tor -5 it was a 'no play'

[JayDr3am]

how can you say you don't like the line?? You just said if Toronto was -2.5 or -3 it was a play....and if it was Tor -3 to Tor -5 it was a 'no play'

what do you mean how can i say i dont like the line? ... can you read?? now youre just thinking too much lol

look at what you just said dude now you just arent making sense

.. i said in order for me to take toronto they would have to be a -2.5 -3 point FAVORITE. the line was released and they are a +2 point DOG.

you still following me?...

its the complete flip flop of what i thought it would be. i wanted the cavs to be the dog by 2.5 or 3 points. but instead they are favorited. first glance at the game, its a no play. period. the game isnt till tomorrow anyway. the line could be completely different by tip off. theres games today to break down. maybe ill get the angle tomorrow. but as of right now, im not making a play on it..

[JayDr3am]

looks like it's Toronto +2....which is 4 or 5 points in your capping favor if you need Toronto to be at -2.5 or -3.

expecting a 10 unit play out of you. I doubt it moves towards even, Toronto not even competitive in the first two games

i dont view it that way nor will i ever see that in my 'capping favor' lol

you asked me what the line needed to be for me to take it and i told you.. ( Toronto -2.5 or -3)

just cause toronto is +2 doesnt mean im still going to like it. i would need the oddmakers to have toronto at -2 or -3 for me to take it. not as a 2pt dog.

i see that youre trying to figure out how i view these games and make my picks but you will literally drive yourself crazy trying to figure out how i cap these games lol

[JayDr3am]

now if by tomorrow the raptors are a -2pt favorite then the play would feel right..

. this is where the momentum swings..i expect the raptors to be alot more scrappy at home.. we'll have this debate tomorrow

[The Hat]

lol...you need a shrink not a bookie jk jk

[The Hat]

the line does not indicate the final result of the game....

it's where it's at right now bc the books wouldn't get any Tor action if they made them favs... everybody and their brother would be heavy on Clev after routing them in the first two games

[JayDr3am]

lol...you need a shrink not a bookie jk jk

no youre just crazy old man.. jk haha

so youre saying, since i said my pre line would have to be -2.5 or -3 toronto, that im automatically suppose to like +2.5 toronto? that doesnt even correlate to anything i said..

to end my point, toronto being a +2 dog doesnt spike interest. if it was the other way around, it would. now i know why the books have it set like that.. we'll just see what the line is tomorrow before tip off

[The Hat]

i see, so basically you don't determine who think will win and play the line value accordingly..... I think in a previous post you said that's what did and that was my whole point of asking about what you would need the line to be.... Prob shoulda asked you about your win prediction.
All said and done, basically other people's money determines which side your play lands on...Good Luck.... hopefully it turns into a good series

[The Hat]

yeah i kind of make up my own reasonable line.. nothing special. no special formulas written down or whatever lol i try to be as reasonable as possible and ill play it accordingly..

this quote is why I was asking you what line you would need.... I see what you're saying....you're saying if your line matches the book line, then that's good for you, instead of thinking there is value when your line is much different than the book line.....

Plus I'm just trying to get to 50,000 posts