[y2kr1000]

you have anything for tonight?

No mate, the next system play is on Sunday (Australian Time). This will be on the Bobcats/Phoenix game. The play is Bobcats with the points provided the line is decent enough.

[y2kr1000]

Thanks for clarifying. I think I understand now. Didnt mean to question the system, just wanted to understand it exactly. Good luck with future picks

No problem mate, I didn't mean to have a go last night. Was just extremely tired as my dog was in emergency all night with poisoning. She's all good now.

[y2kr1000]

Jazz are looking good so far...

[miczz14]

cha is +8.5 thoughts?

[ChicagoCover]

Bobs are playing decent ball in the road, let's see what the system says.

[y2kr1000]

Second Posted System Play:

Charlotte Bobcats +8.5 vs Phoenix Suns.

The play here is on the bobcats with an 8.5 point handicap.

Quick Analysis -

Suns just played four game road trip.

Suns 5th game in seven nights.

On return of the Suns last road trip and also their 5th game in seven nights, the Suns failed to cover the spread against the Los Angeles Lakers, who were playing b2b with a depleted team. Charlotte just beat a rested Los Angeles team by 10 on their home court.

Perfect fit for my system.

[y2kr1000]

Looking at the thunder/wizards game I really like the wizards with the points here. OKC are playing their 5th game in seven nights, 6th game in eight nights vs a rested Washington who are playing good ball of late. OKC have lost the last two games played at Washington. This is an incredibly difficult spot for the thunder here and I can see their win streak coming to an end. Just working on some different patterns based off my original system. Any comments welcome.

[ekko187]

Any thoughts on Millwaukee covering tonight? Memphis is b2b and coming off a 4/5 game road trip. Thye played hard late last night to scramble the win in the 4th. 14 pts seems reasonable to me. What do you think?

[blerpblerp]

Looking at the thunder/wizards game I really like the wizards with the points here. OKC are playing their 5th game in seven nights, 6th game in eight nights vs a rested Washington who are playing good ball of late. OKC have lost the last two games played at Washington. This is an incredibly difficult spot for the thunder here and I can see their win streak coming to an end. Just working on some different patterns based off my original system. Any comments welcome.

Just for shitz......someone can also argue that the starters (and Durant esp) will be more well rested than a usual B2B after that blowout win last night. I'm staying away from this one...but if I had a lean I would probably like WAS 1Q as they usually start with good energy and OKC could start flat even if they aren't that fatigued from last night. GL

[Ro0k]

Any thoughts on Millwaukee covering tonight? Memphis is b2b and coming off a 4/5 game road trip. Thye played hard late last night to scramble the win in the 4th. 14 pts seems reasonable to me. What do you think?

Don't bet good money on bad teams.

[y2kr1000]

I agree, I wouldn't bet on Milwaukee at present. Also Memphis only played 3 road games and are playing solid ball.

[kobstopa]

Looking at the thunder/wizards game I really like the wizards with the points here. OKC are playing their 5th game in seven nights, 6th game in eight nights vs a rested Washington who are playing good ball of late. OKC have lost the last two games played at Washington. This is an incredibly difficult spot for the thunder here and I can see their win streak coming to an end. Just working on some different patterns based off my original system. Any comments welcome.

THE SAME can be said when they played Brooklyn, but what happen ?. The is their bench, not only play extremely well but their youth with full energy.
but i am not touching this one.

[trobin31]

Looking at the thunder/wizards game I really like the wizards with the points here. OKC are playing their 5th game in seven nights, 6th game in eight nights vs a rested Washington who are playing good ball of late. OKC have lost the last two games played at Washington. This is an incredibly difficult spot for the thunder here and I can see their win streak coming to an end. Just working on some different patterns based off my original system. Any comments welcome.

Wizards are a generally undervalued team with an excellent back court, Beal can light it up and John Wall has taken the next step. Living here in DC, not a wiz fan, but noticed they seem to show up big against good teams at home lately. I'm on Wiz, but its scary with the way okc is playing on the road here lately. Seems like a great let down spot.

[Grinder12000]

oops - redundant - sorry

[Grinder12000]

This is a pretty old system, not knocking it. One of the reason this works is not really fatigue but human nature. Players have been so geared up on the road that they get home, have sex with their wives (as opposed to groupies), have home cooking and relax. The edge is off and they think that now at home things are easier.

On the other hand road teams are all geared up for a road win.

Not to hard to back test this. I suspect young teams are more prone to losing at home then older teams.

Keep watching and good luck.

but noticed they seem to show up big against good teams at home

Interesting

Washington since Dec 2007 against GOOD teams at home (+.667 over their last 80 games) are 18-13 at home. Against BAd teams 16-18 ATS and against ANYBODY 124-155 so you are correct

[bigballr9989]

Good write ups and nice system,will tail tonight. Also gonna avoid Milwaukee, may even bet against them.

[Grinder12000]

ummmmmm 0 I just went through all the teams this year with 4+ game road trips and fading the home team in their 1st home game - 28-14 ATS. And I missing something>

AHHH 5 games. will go back and look.

5 games 15-5 NOT saying 28-14 is a bad number LOL

This is one of those things where the less people that know about this the longer it will work.


SHHHHHHH!

[trobin31]

ummmmmm 0 I just went through all the teams this year with 4+ game road trips and fading the home team in their 1st home game - 28-14 ATS. And I missing something>



AHHH 5 games. will go back and look.

I think Y2K already said he doesnt just blindly bet on the numbers +4 road games, he also takes into account other factors as well...so I dont think you can just look back at similar games to critique. Instead I would just go by his published record.. hope this helps.

[rentongfb]

Phoenix also have a 4 game ATS streak, gotta end somewhere

[Grinder12000]

I was not trying to cut down the system. Just a numbers geek looking for value. 5 on the road and fading the home team was 16-21 last year.

Hey - handicapping is finding a hot hand and running with it. I've never seen any system work over time.

Heck my systems were winning 70% after 180 games this year and BAM!! everything goes south!

[y2kr1000]

Sorry guys, different times over here in oz. Just woke up. Appreciate the feedback. I haven't explained all elements of this system. It's still relatively new but I will keep posting plays as I want to keep a personal record on here and help to share the recent success I have had.

I went with a small parlay on Washington +4.5/bobcats +8.5. The Washington bet is something new I'm working on. It doesn't fit the current system I have posted but is somewhat a "spin off of it".

[y2kr1000]

Does anyone have an update regarding Utahs injuries? Big spread on this game. Clippers 10th game in 15 nights. 5th game in 8 days. Insights appreciated.

[y2kr1000]

Bobcats -0.5 2H

[alamo]

Bobcats -0.5 2H

I assume this wont count against your record given its outside the system play

[y2kr1000]

That's correct, system plays are based on the intitial spread. If I'm happy with the progress of the game or see exceptional value in the second half spread, I will post this at half time.

[y2kr1000]

Sorry guys, the system didn't come through today.

Personal System Record 21-3

Posted System Plays 1-1

Posted Half Time Plays on System Games 2-0

No plays tomorrow.

Next System Game:

Grizzlies @ Thunder

[y2kr1000]

Went big on the second half spread ($500= 5 units). I was sweating it for a bit. Also parlayed bobcats 2H with jazz + 13 for $50. Sorry I don't post these plays in time, their just theories/plays for fun as I'm up quite a bit the past few weeks but like to share this in my thread. Will look at Jazz/Clippers half time .

[y2kr1000]

If my second half system is correct, the Clippers should collapse second half. Waiting for spread.

[y2kr1000]

Lets take it for another spin. Jazz +8 2H

[y2kr1000]

No system plays tomorrow.

One game that stands out to me is Spurs/Pelicans. Taking Pelicans +4.5

[miczz14]

ur not playing mem okc?

and why take nop? both teams have decent rest days

[Spudymatt]

No system plays tomorrow.

One game that stands out to me is Spurs/Pelicans. Taking Pelicans +4.5

Must be an Aussie thing. I have the same feeling on this match

[y2kr1000]

There are no games for a period that fit the topic of this thread. However I will still post plays I take and tomorrow I love the Pelicans in this spot. As Spudy said, it's an Aussie thing. Still waiting for the Raptors/Jazz line. Jazz burned me the other day on a theory I had which re-inforces another system i'm currently working on. Spurs are in a funk right now and given their recent performances the home dog is in an extremely good spot to win outright. But I like the points.

[redtagboys]

I like Pelicans, Wizards, and Utah today. Also have a feeling the Bucks cover.

[alamo]

When is the next play that meets the criteria