[thunderous]

Nice hit yesterday!! BOL tonight...

[primetimej]

1 Unit Play
Jazz +9.5 - Lose -1.1 Units
Cavs +8.5 - Win +1.0 Units
Suns 3.5 - Win +1.0 Units

3 Unit Play
Hawks -3.5 - Win +3.0 Units

1 Unit Plays - 5-1 +3.9 Units
2 Unit Plays - 3-2 +1.5 Units
3 Unit Plays - 3-1 +5.7 Units
YTD - 11-4 +11.1 Units

[Riceboi]

good stuff in here. Keep it going

[luciddream]

Yeah, nice hit again! Keep it going man!

[ShotgunRua]

Wow this is actually working, watching very closely.

[primetimej]

No plays fall into the system today guys. I'll post back late on Christmas Eve with plays if there are any for Christmas day. Happy Holidays everyone!

[thunderous]

No plays fall into the system today guys. I'll post back late on Christmas Eve with plays if there are any for Christmas day. Happy Holidays everyone!

I am surprised that there are no games that fall in the system. Happy Holidays to you too!

[primetimej]

Two plays for tomorrow

1 Unit
Bulls -4.5
Rockets 3-0 ATS in last 3
Bulls 0-1 ATS in last 1

2 Units
Thunder +2.5
Thunder 0-1 ATS in last 1
Heat 4-0 ATS in last 4

[gojetsgomoxies]

love this thread. i really like objective systems. i was thinking play hot vs cold but i'm open to either

[gojetsgomoxies]

hey, i'd be happy to help backtest this. the one team angle would probably be pretty easy to backtest (time consuming of course and requires alot of dilligence). the 2 team system (which is probably where more of the value is generated) seems like it's going to be a giant pain for some to do. have to print out each team's ATS log from last year (avail from teamrankings.com and i'm sure lots of other places) and then match the games without double-counting.

anyway, i'd be happy to do say 20% of the teams for the past few years. if we can get 5 people it would be good.

[primetimej]

Sounds great moxies. If we get 3 more ill be happy to assist with the back testing. Merry Christmas!

[degengamble]

I like the system and the concept, and the results so far are promising - but needed to see if this was just luck in the short-run or if there is a solid angle here. Now the only way to do this is with backtesting - unfortunately I suck at it. I am great at getting the data into a spreadsheet via excel using VBA / Macros - but terrible at figuring out filters.

SO - I'm hoping you guys will help me out. I attached a spreadsheet that has Covers ATS results for every team from 2007 to 2012.

The "Backtest" tab has the backtest results. I segemented by SEASON and UNITS W/L. The results do not look good. Unless I did something wrong - it looks like in the last 5 years only 2 winning seasons and 2007-08 only by 1 unit. 2011-2012 was worse than all of them - but I think that is because of the compressed season. Over 5 years - 628-699 for -89 units


The "Backtest by Team" tab has WINS / LOSSES for a TEAM playing another TEAM. I was hoping to find specific teams to not play or teams to avoid playing against. Here are all the teams that yielded positive units if you played on them and teams that yielded positive results if you avoided playing against them

Teams to play (BET ON)
Bulls
Clippers
Hawks
Jazz
Knicks
Nuggets
Suns
Thunder
Warriors

Teams to Avoid playing against (FADE)
Bobcats
Bulls
Cavs
Celtics
Clippers
Kings
Knicks
Lakers
Nets
Thunder


The "Covers Data" tab has the raw data from covers. LG1 stands for last game, so have the last 10 games of the team and their opponent to figure out the streak.

SO I was hoping you guys could help me figure out what filters may help this system - any ideas?

DegenGamble


EDIT: Had to break it out into 2 files - the excel file has the backtest results and the zip file has the raw Covers Data

[degengamble]

Sounds great moxies. If we get 3 more ill be happy to assist with the back testing. Merry Christmas!

hey, i'd be happy to help backtest this. the one team angle would probably be pretty easy to backtest (time consuming of course and requires alot of dilligence). the 2 team system (which is probably where more of the value is generated) seems like it's going to be a giant pain for some to do. have to print out each team's ATS log from last year (avail from teamrankings.com and i'm sure lots of other places) and then match the games without double-counting.

anyway, i'd be happy to do say 20% of the teams for the past few years. if we can get 5 people it would be good.

Hey guys - sorry - I posted without reading your posts. Actually getting that data did not take me that long at all - just a few hours to write the macro to pull it and format it, and write the formulas to figure out the plays and streaks.

I could really use your help figuring out filters though.

Some additional thoughts along with my other post:

1) Maybe come up with a list of teams to play / avoid (I did this quickly on my spreadsheet - but we should take a harder look)
2) Maybe look at teams that have performed well ATS THIS season - look at home / road ATS spilts as well. The idea would be if they have been performing well ATS for the season, home, road, L10, etc - it would be a play OR if avoid that team if playing against them.

Well - I look forward to your thoughts.

DG

[ShotgunRua]

Your effort is appreciated guys, very interested to see the results of back testing.

[luciddream]

No picks for today?

[Zmoney]

Great night last night. I certainly don't have expectations like this, though these numbers have been over 70% since 12/1, so we'll see how this continues to progress.

Tonight here's the plays

1 Unit Play
Jazz +9.5
Jazz 0-1 ATS in last game
Heat 3-0 ATS in last 3
Cavs +8.5 (Buy half)
Cavs 0-3 ATS in last 3
Bucks 1-0 ATS in last game
Suns +3.5 (Buy half)
Suns 0-4 ATS in last 4.

3 Unit Play
Hawks -3.5
Bulls 2-0 ATS in last 2
Hawks 0-4 ATS in last 4.

BOL to all tonight.

Suns here were not 0-4 on their last 4ATS. I remember playing them this night bc they were hot and won 4 in a row ats...got a lucky half point cover lol. Although I like what u got here, I usually tend to follow the streaks n have found it to work sometimes as well. I'll keep following this thread to see how it does

gl man

[EasyHustlin]

I can run a detailed backtest, once I get access to a computer

[primetimej]

Hey Guys sorry been so busy with Christmas stuff. Thanks for all the support and help. Hopefully I'll have time a bit later to check the sheets and post the plays.

1 Unit Play
Bulls -4.5 - Lose -1.1 Units

2 Unit Play
Thunder +2.5 - Lose -2.2 Units

YTD - 11-6 +7.8 Units

[degengamble]

Hey Guys sorry been so busy with Christmas stuff. Thanks for all the support and help. Hopefully I'll have time a bit later to check the sheets and post the plays.

1 Unit Play
Bulls -4.5 - Lose -1.1 Units

2 Unit Play
Thunder +2.5 - Lose -2.2 Units

YTD - 11-6 +7.8 Units

I'm pretty sure those are yesterday's plays (12/25)

This is what I have for today (12/26). Now I could be worng here - but according to the system rules this is what I think are the plays - but primetime needs to confirm.


1 Unit Play
MEM-10
MEM 0-2 ATS
PHI 0-2 ATS


2 Unit Play
CHI+3
CHI 0-2 ATS
IND 3-0 ATS

BRK+2.5
BRK 0-4 ATS
MIL 1-0 ATS

POR-5.5
POR 0-2 ATS
SAC 3-0 ATS


3 Unit Play

CHA+11.5
CHA 0-3 ATS
MIA 5-0 ATS



Personally, I look at these plays against my other models and systems i'm using this season - and the only plays I may be on would be MEM, POR & BRK

[k4cowboys4k]

Did we give up on this?

[gojetsgomoxies]

not sure if i posted this already a second ago.

anyway, love the thread. let's keep it going.

on dec 26, why was memphis a play when the write-up shows memphis and philadelphia both being 0-2? maybe i don't understand entire system. i thought philly would have to be 2-0 for memphis to be a play.

thanks again!!

[gojetsgomoxies]

I'm pretty sure those are yesterday's plays (12/25)

This is what I have for today (12/26). Now I could be worng here - but according to the system rules this is what I think are the plays - but primetime needs to confirm.


1 Unit Play
MEM-10
MEM 0-2 ATS
PHI 0-2 ATS


2 Unit Play
CHI+3
CHI 0-2 ATS
IND 3-0 ATS

BRK+2.5
BRK 0-4 ATS
MIL 1-0 ATS

POR-5.5
POR 0-2 ATS
SAC 3-0 ATS


3 Unit Play

CHA+11.5
CHA 0-3 ATS
MIA 5-0 ATS



Personally, I look at these plays against my other models and systems i'm using this season - and the only plays I may be on would be MEM, POR & BRK

bearing in mind i'm not the keeper of this thread. i see cha +3 units, memphis -1 unit (still don't understand why it's a play), portland +2 units, brooklyn -2 units and chicago (postponed)..... so that's net +2 units before just. and 2-2 added to win-loss record.

i'm going to check that memphis game and also check last nights 2 games. also look at tonight.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i see dec 27 games (dal at okc.... bos at lac) as no play....

so mem was 0-2. phil was 2-0 so memphis was a play (LOSS) and just a typo i presume by op in describing it. and i already included it as loss in my earlier comment.

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok. so for dec 28. and not sure i totally understand system. i see what i think is one clear game and the rest muddled.

lac 3-0 @ utah 0-1 = utah play

miami 6-0 @ det 1-0 = det play?

cha 0-4 @ brooklyn 0-5 no idea?

houston 5-0 @ sas 3-0 = sas play? EDIT: SAS is 2-0

phoenix (push latest) @ indiana 3-0 = no play?

nyk 3 ats wins then push @ sac 0-1 = no play? (depends on service i guess as does game above)

and that's all i see. i see a few more games where both teams have 2 to 3 games streaks going but in the same direction. i think those are no plays.

so utah for sure. miami (ooops should be detroit) and then stumped on at least a couple of others. weird so many teams are in same direction (i think i used ATS results, not win/loss)

[gojetsgomoxies]

so utah, detroit, sas are plays. and maybe charlotte (have to ask OP)

[gojetsgomoxies]

looking good so far, although miami had jumped out to big lead. huge swing there.

[gojetsgomoxies]

so 2-0 so far. looking good for 3-0

and then have to hear from OP on charlotte vs. brooklyn shyttfest (my thought was for it to be no play as both teams were qualified AVOIDS themselves and brooklyn just had a coaching change)

[FilL IVY League]

great job fellas, i always like to fade the public perception, had the jazz big just because of the clippers being a hot team and spread being just a bucket when they are on a 16 game winning streak and by far the best team in the NBA right now, it made me scratch my head and think hum, this has to be a trap, jazz point guard was out and still they got inside the number. , i also had G state, pistons and N. Dakota cause RAS had that play. Definetly this is a great thread, i will try my best and chip in, BOL in the future fellas

[gojetsgomoxies]

ooops SAS wasn't a win but utah and detroit were. not sure of the units. will check later.

and still need clarification on brooklyn 0-5 vs. charlotte 0-4. my thought before the game was no play but it would be a 2 unit play if it counts as brooklyn is the pick.

tonight we have:

orlando 1 unit vs. toronto
charlotte 2 units vs. NOH
memphis 2 units vs. denver
okc 3 units vs. houston (would be 6 units if the system went that far)

all of them at the closing line tonight for book-keeping purposes.

[gojetsgomoxies]

orlando 1 unit LOSS
charlotte 2 unit PUSH

OKC looking really good. memphis looking ok.

[gojetsgomoxies]

memphis WIN 2 units
okc WIN 3 units
charlotte WIN 2 units (i'm going to use pinnacle closing which shows +3.5)
orlando LOSS 1 unit

another nice day!! thank you OP for this system!!

[gojetsgomoxies]

took a quick peek at sunday's games. only 4 games total.

all i see is pistons 4-0 vs. bucks 2-0 (assumes cover tonight). so i think bucks would be 1 unit play on sunday.

other than that nothing (and i've looked at how tonight's games would affect things. don't think there are any other possible plays. all the other teams are 0-1 or 1-0

[primetimej]

Hey guys, sorry just been tied down a bit with family and friends for Chirstmas. I'll be back posting and updating as usual. Thanks much moxy for keeping up with the plays and I'll update the records in my next post and post the plays for tomorrow thanks again!

[primetimej]

Here's an update for all the games that were missed. Again big thanks to moxies for all the assistance!




12/26


1 Unit Plays
Grizzlies - No play
Grizzlies 1-1 ATS last 2. Opening line vs Dallas was -10.5)
76ers - 2-0 ATS last 2.


Bulls - PPD
Nets +2.5 - Lose -2.20 Units
Blazers - 5.5 Win +2.00 Units


3 Units Plays
Bobcats +11.5 - Lose -3.30 Units


For the day - 1-2 -3.30 Units
1 Unit Plays 5-2 +2.8 Units
2 Unit Plays 4-4 -.9 Units
3 Unit Plays 3-2 +2.4 Units
YTD - 12-8 +4.3 Units


12/27 No plays


12/28


1 Unit Plays
Utah +3.5 - Win +1.00 Units


Two Unit Plays
Spurs -8.5 Lose -2.20 Units
3 Units Plays
Detroit +6.5 - Win +3.00 Units


Brooklyn -9.5 - No play (both teams falls into fade spots in this system making no team eligible).
Suns vs. Pacers - No play (I give the half point to the dog in th event of a push, so Suns in last game before this one won ATS vs knicks).


For the day
2-1 +1.8 Units
1 Unit Plays 6-2 +3.8 Units
2 Unit Plays 4-5 -3.1 Units
3 Unit Plays 4-2 +5.4 Units
YTD - 14-8 +6.1 Units


12/29
One Unit Plays
Magic -3.5 Lose -1.10 Units


Two Unit Plays
Grizzlies -5.5 Win +2.00
Bobcats +3.5 Win +2.00 Units


Three Unit Plays
Thunder - +4.5 - Win +3.00 Units


For the day - 3-1 +5.9 Units
1 Unit Plays 6-3 +2.7 Units
2 Unit Plays 6-5 +.9 Units
3 Unit Plays 5-2 +8.4 Units
YTD - 17-9 +12.0 Units

[primetimej]

12/30
One Unit Play
Bucks +3.5
Pistons 4-0 ATS in last 4.