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Against the Spread Fade System Thread
I have been using a few different systems lately trying to get a feel for which one garners the best results and so far during the season it has been this. Basically what we are looking teams that have covered ATS a few games in a row vs teams that lost ATS a few games in a row, and fading the team that covered. The magic number for one team is four games in a row, and the magic number for two teams that play eachother is 4 games in a row. Example if Team A covers two in a row and they are playing team B who hasn't covered there last two games, the play would be team B. There will be 3 different plays that are for 1, 2, and 3 units. I judge this based on opening line, so if the line has jumped two points before tip-off it means nothing to me. I want the line that originated from the books themselves not based on the public line movement, however in most cases the public bets against this system anyway moving the line in our favor. I don't care about injuries, back to backs, etc. The books account for all this when the line originates.
1 Unit Play - Team that have covered ATS 4 in a row or team that has lost ATS 4 in a row. Fade the winning team ATS or play the losing team ATS to win. If the combined ATS between both teams is 4 then fade the winning team. Ex. Team A has covered ATS 3 in a row vs Team B who lost the last game ATS or two and two. If streaks goes beyond 4, the play becomes a 2 Unit play against that team for the next game. (Since December 1, this is 12-7 ATS)
2 Unit play - Teams that have covered ATS 5 in a row or team that has lost ATS 5 in a row. Fade the winning team ATS or play the losing team ATS to win. Same rule applies from 1 unit play with the combination of both the winning and losing teams ATS. If streak goes beyond 5, the play becomes a 3 unit play against that team for the next game. (Since December 1 this is 4-0 ATS)
3 Unit play - Teams that have covered ATS 6 in a row or team that has lost ATS 6 in a row. Fade the winning team ATS or play the losing team ATS to win. Same rule applies from 1 unit play with the combination of both the winning and losing teams ATS. If streak goes beyond 6, the play becomes a 3 unit play every time until the streak breaks. (Since December 1 this is 1-0 ATS)
Another example is the Thunder last night fell into the 2 Unit play category. They lost their last 4 ATS, and the Spurs covered their last game. This totaled to 5 making it a 2 Unit play.
Let me know how you guys feel about this. Follow or fade the system, either way good luck in all your plays.
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Originally Posted by primetimej
, thanks primetime
