[dlunc3]

what happened to all of your labby lines?

[J.M. Disciple]

On the day if i wasn't so busy would have went 3-1 ATS, and 0-1 on o/u... But as it turns out only went 1-0 on official posted plays that i bet.

just posting from my phone so no official update yet. we are now 14 wins 5 losses officially.

Will have two plays tomorrow. nyk and other i will post tomorrow.

[J.M. Disciple]

what happened to all of your labby lines?

73% win rate labby lines clear pretty fast.

Tread carefully, back test so far shows 57% so matter of time before law of averages takes place.

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
record: 14-5 (73%)
Profit: 22.08units
OVER / UNDER
Record: 1-1
Profit: -.1units

12/01/2012
Plays
#20 nyk (-10.5) 3.14 units
#3 nyk / phx (over 200.5) 3.1 units

good luck

ps will have play #21 tomorrow afternoon once line is posted.

-JMD

[Brandonjohnst24]

So how do you come up with your picks? They're doing really well

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
Record: 14-6
Profit: +18.63units

o/u
record : 2-1
Profit: +3units

#21 Lakers (-13) [4.45 units]

This is final play of day. good luck.

[J.M. Disciple]

So how do you come up with your picks? They're doing really well

thanks, but my system is staying a secret for a while until im 100% sure of it. then we can all break the bookies.

[Brandonjohnst24]

thanks, but my system is staying a secret for a while until im 100% sure of it. then we can all break the bookies.

That's cool man. Well you're doin a good job. Keep it up. I'm tailin ya!

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
RECORD: 14-7
PROFIT: +13.96 units

O/U
RECORD: 2-1
PROFIT: +3.00 UNITS

Will have four (4) ATS plays and one (1) o/U play tomorrow will post around 5:00pm ET

[yankeefan1024]

73% win rate labby lines clear pretty fast.

Tread carefully, back test so far shows 57% so matter of time before law of averages takes place.

How exactly do you begin running back tests? I know there are many websites selling software that claims to give you the ability to do this, and so many people on this forum claim to have run backtests on their systems... How do you begin to do this? Is it some tool you use, or are you just collecting raw data from somewhere?

I'd appreciate any help you're willing to give me!

[J.M. Disciple]

I use covers.com and basically it is very tedious and time consuming. you have to go team by team depending on what your testing.

[yankeefan1024]

Okay. Once you gather all the observations what exactly do you run them through? Do you build some model in excel or something is it more just analyzing the trends by eye and keeping track of patterns? Is there any validation to the back testing you do?

[deeznutz]

Looking forward to your next bet

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
RECORD: 14-7
PROFIT: +13.96 units

O/U
RECORD: 2-1
PROFIT: +3.00 UNITS

#22 MIL (-4) 3.8u
#23 LAC (-2) 3.24u
#24 DEN (-10) 2.76u
#25 ORL (+9.5) 2.00u

O/u
#4 Tor/Den (O200.5) 1.00u

Good Luck

Sorry I do not have much time to respond to questions. I will try to respond soon as I can by days end.

[J.M. Disciple]

Okay. Once you gather all the observations what exactly do you run them through? Do you build some model in excel or something is it more just analyzing the trends by eye and keeping track of patterns? Is there any validation to the back testing you do?

I create an excel file. Date / Team your betting on / team they are against / spread / risk amount / to win amount / amount won etc. Anything you think is important for that game. If you look at other chase systems they list them as Team they are betting against then the next 3 teams they are against. They write down A,B, or C depending on what level they won at. Then on next column they will tally it as amount won for that series. Labby works a little different cause it does not recover all the loss after 1 win. Basically no short cuts to back testing. Good Luck!

[J.M. Disciple]

Dec 4th, 2012
ATS
Record: 15-10
Profit: +5.72
O/u
Record: 3-1
Profit: +4u

Plays for the day:
#26 Mia -10 [5.97u]
#27 Chi -3.5 [4.92u]
#28 phi -3.5 [4.25u]
#29 Okc -4 [1.00u]
#5 OKC/BRK O192.5 [1.00u]

No more plays for the day. Good Luck

[yankeefan1024]

I create an excel file. Date / Team your betting on / team they are against / spread / risk amount / to win amount / amount won etc. Anything you think is important for that game. If you look at other chase systems they list them as Team they are betting against then the next 3 teams they are against. They write down A,B, or C depending on what level they won at. Then on next column they will tally it as amount won for that series. Labby works a little different cause it does not recover all the loss after 1 win. Basically no short cuts to back testing. Good Luck!

Thanks. I appreciate the help! I'm glad to know it's as simple as that. I'm willing to put down the time, and I am already doing something similar so I wasn't far off!

As far as going in and validating and finding R^2 and all that kind of stuff, do you do that, or strictly just track records?

[RJKing]

is this a system or are you handicapping one by one. I hate the blind systems. Are you weighing in injuries or schedules?

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks. I appreciate the help! I'm glad to know it's as simple as that. I'm willing to put down the time, and I am already doing something similar so I wasn't far off!

As far as going in and validating and finding R^2 and all that kind of stuff, do you do that, or strictly just track records?

Just track records

[J.M. Disciple]

is this a system or are you handicapping one by one. I hate the blind systems. Are you weighing in injuries or schedules?

Maybe this is not for you

[J.M. Disciple]

On a bad run. Manage your money as wisely as possible. Upcoming bets are going to start to get pretty heavy until we hit another good run. I believe this is 3rd straight losing day for us.

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
Record: 16-13
Profit: -9.10u
O/U
Record: 4-1
Profit: +5.00u

Dec. 5th, 2012
#30 LAL -4.5 [5.00u]
#31 Chi -3 [5.00u]
#32 NYK -7.5 [5.00u]
#33 IND -4 [4.00u]
#34 SAS -8.5 [4.00u]
#35 SAC -2.5 [4.00u]
#6 GSW/DET Over 192.5 [1.00u]

[BuckeyeKaptn]

JMD, I've been following/betting your picks since Spurs/Miami win (you had Sas). I have you at 8-7, plus .3 units. I don't know labby, so I have been doing a straight 1 unit bet on each (each loss has been -110). Do you mind explaining labby, since this lobby is a bit quieter than the other 2 (JM and Stif). I think I have an idea, but if you could use your previous picks, within the last 2 weeks, that would help. Appreciate it.

[J.M. Disciple]

Ill give you a quick example, but do not want to go back through my picks and document it exactly. Here is how the labby works though.

Starting Labby Line: 10-10-10-10
*Below are a series of wins / losses.
Day 1) winner +$20
W 10-10-X-X
Day 2) Loser -$20
L 10-10-20-X
Day 3) winning +$30
W 10 - X- X- X-
Day 4) Lose -$10
L 10 - 10
Day 5) Lose -$20
L 10 - 10 -20
Day 6) Lose -$30
L 10 - 10 - 20 - 30
Day 7) Win +$40
W 10 - 20
Day 8) Win +$30
W labby line CLEARed

I do this method and tweak the line here and there if it gets too heavy, but also run 4 lines at a time. Also I use 5dimes.com so I get odds like -102, -105, -107, etc. I do not always play -110.

Some labby Tips
1) Single line averaging. Take the total sum of the line and divide it by the total #s on the line to lower your risk. Example: 10-10-10-20-30. You would bet to win $40 usually, but if you average out the line. You get 16-16-16-16-16. Now you only have to bet to win $32 which lowers your risk and stops your line from getting heavier.

2) 3 strike and 4 strike approach. This requires a larger bankroll, but if you feel you have a really strong play you can bet to clear 3 - 4 numbers instead of just two numbers. I usually stick with two strike since sports betting is so unpredictable at times. Two strike means you are clearing two numbers, 3 strike means you are clearing 3 numbers etc. 2:1 = 34% win to make a profit. 3 strike = 25% win to make a profit and 4 strike only requires you to have a 20% win percentage to show a profit. When you are using 3-4 strike though it often becomes a martingale chase and requires a larger bankroll.

3) If you are running multiple labby lines you can split your loss over the lines. If you look for On3's MLB thread he did this all season. Say you have an A-B-C chase. If your A-bet loses, than he would split half the loss on line A and average half the loss over line B. This works well for 3 tier chase systems.

Hope this helps and thanks for following. Trying to stay as consistent as possible. Also not sure how you have me in the profit currently unless you are flat betting each pick which I do not recommend.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Starting Labby Line: 10-10-10-10
*Below are a series of wins / losses.
Day 1) winner +$20
W 10-10-X-X
Day 2) Loser -$20
L 10-10-20-X

I think I've always understood ^, including the tips. My confusion is more toward games played.
Let's say...Day 1, I want to win $20, and I have 5 games on (i'm gonna ignore vig right now...we'll say it's +100), so I place $4 on each game. I win 3...I'm up $4 for the day. What's my new line? 10-10-10-6? 9-9-9-9? This has been the part that confuses me! I didn't "win/take home" $10 so I couldn't "X" a 10 from the line, but I made a profit.
Or
Is the "10" one wager? I have 4 games to bet, I use 2 lines as each game is a $10 bet, and I wanna knock 10 twice in each line.

Hope this helps and thanks for following. Trying to stay as consistent as possible. Also not sure how you have me in the profit currently unless you are flat betting each pick which I do not recommend.

Flat Betting I'm assuming you mean straight 1 unit bets over and over. Except for JM/Chase/7-5/Stiflers, yes I do. Check my post #1065 on Stiflers thread...you'll see why! I bet $2 just for fun, but let's see what we can do, right? I've seen you mention labby, well, if it makes $$, let's do it. That's why I asked. As far as the "profit" from your picks: 15 picks @ $2 (-110)...8 wins ($16), 7 losses ($-15.40)= $.60 /2= $.30 unit profit!

[deeznutz]

Great day.. Keep it up

[J.M. Disciple]

I think I've always understood ^, including the tips. My confusion is more toward games played.
Let's say...Day 1, I want to win $20, and I have 5 games on (i'm gonna ignore vig right now...we'll say it's +100), so I place $4 on each game. I win 3...I'm up $4 for the day. What's my new line? 10-10-10-6? 9-9-9-9? This has been the part that confuses me! I didn't "win/take home" $10 so I couldn't "X" a 10 from the line, but I made a profit.
Or
Is the "10" one wager? I have 4 games to bet, I use 2 lines as each game is a $10 bet, and I wanna knock 10 twice in each line.



Flat Betting I'm assuming you mean straight 1 unit bets over and over. Except for JM/Chase/7-5/Stiflers, yes I do. Check my post #1065 on Stiflers thread...you'll see why! I bet $2 just for fun, but let's see what we can do, right? I've seen you mention labby, well, if it makes $$, let's do it. That's why I asked. As far as the "profit" from your picks: 15 picks @ $2 (-110)...8 wins ($16), 7 losses ($-15.40)= $.60 /2= $.30 unit profit!

OK if your unit size is $2 than lay out your labby lines as followed. If you have 5 games on the day that you are betting it will look like this:

1) 1-1-1-1
2) 1-1-1-1
3) 1-1-1-1
4) 1-1-1-1
5) 1-1-1-1

Line 1) NYK $2.20 to win $2..... W
Line 2) MIN $2.20 to win $2......W
Line 3) LAL $2.20 to win $2.......L
Line 4) PHX $2.20 to win $2.......W
Line 5) MIA $2.20 to win $2........L

Now take your lines and adjust them. You are NOT taking your profit from the day and subtracting it from your line. Labby is cross two or add one strategy, so going by the above numbers here are your labby lines readjusted.


1) X-1-1-X
2) X-1-1-X
3) 1-1-1-1 - 2.10
4) X-1-1-X
5) 1-1-1-1 - 2.10

Now lets say you have three games the next day. Two of the games I would bet to win $3.10 on them and one of the games I would be to win $2 on. I always list the games in order of strength, so your $3.10 would be the top two plays of the day and rest of the plays would be for $2.

Hope this helps.

[iceman212]

GL today.

[J.M. Disciple]

Great Day yesterday indeed. Here is the update with the three plays today.

ATS
Record: 21-14 (60%)
Profit: +7.55 units
O/U
Record: 5-1
Profit: +6.00u

Dec. 6th, 2012
#36 NYK (+7.5 ATS) [to win 5.18units]
#37 phx (-3.5 ATS) [to win 5.18units]
#7 Nyk/Mia (over 200.5) [to win 1.00 unit]

Good Luck
PS: 10 days now with 13.55 units in the black. Still have some extra units on the lines, so hopefully can make it +40 units by end of the month.

[deeznutz]

Are the units going up because you're feeling more confident or because that's how the system works? I'm a little confused about how the JM system works.

Also, how come the other JM thread has DAL and you have PHX? Is it a different system?

[J.M. Disciple]

Are the units going up because you're feeling more confident or because that's how the system works? I'm a little confused about how the JM system works.

I am running a labby off to the side which has not completely cleared all the lines yet. I cleared a couple lines, but not all of them. If there were for instance 4 plays today you would notice two of them would be a lot less than the two plays today.

Yesterday I had 6 numbers on one of my lines and LAL and CHI both cleared 4 #s, but NYk lost which left 3 numbers on the line. With the those 3 numbers I split it to four numbers and bet to clear two numbers for each game today.

[J.M. Disciple]

Are the units going up because you're feeling more confident or because that's how the system works? I'm a little confused about how the JM system works.

Also, how come the other JM thread has DAL and you have PHX? Is it a different system?

LOL IDK if your serious about that last question. If I were only posting John Morrison plays, how do you explain all my other plays?

[J.M. Disciple]

Looks like I should have waited a little longer before placing my bet. Currently NYK +8 and O/u 200. My plays are still based on what I bet and not the closing lines, just consider yourself lucky if the .5 on either end makes a difference at the end of the game.

Line did a quick jump up to 10... Looks like a 1-1 night tonight the way the line is moving.

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
Record: 22-15 (59.45%)
Profit: +7.14 units
O/U
Record: 6-1
Profit: +7.00u

Dec. 7th, 2012
#38 chi (-2.5 ATS) [to win 5.40 units]
#39 utah (-7 ATS) [to win 5.40 units]
#40 mem (-8 ATS) to win 3.90 units
#41 BRK (-6.5 ATS) to win 3.90 units
#8 GS / BRK O195 to win 1unit
#9 mem / noh o183 to win 1 unit

no more plays today. Good Luck

[J.M. Disciple]

ATS
Record: 24-17(58.50%)
Profit: +9.86 units
O/U
Record: 8-1 (88.88%)
Profit: +9.00u

Will have 5 plays tomorrow, but first game at 3:30pm is not a play. Will post before 6:00pm ET.

See you all tomorrow.