[brumbies]

welcome back!

how did you fare in the afl last season?

fancy anything for richmond vs carlton later?

[MacVPTgod]

Sando having a go at the Melbourne opener tonight?

[sando]

Well a nice start and a terrible finish in the NBA.

Going to put it behind me and move on to a big w/e of Aussie sports.

AFL

Round 1.

Carlton v Richmond
Tigers 1-39 (+150, $2.50 Sportingbet) 1x

*Tigers been absolutely crunched last 24 hours from dogs into solid favorites. Should have posted this bet a couple of days ago, however the 1-39 odds have hardly moved, unlike the m/l which has been crunched from +120 into -118.

No time for a write up, match starts in half an hour.

Also playing the Thursday night NRL game (no I don't play every game, however just so happen to have a strong opinion on the outcome of both matches being played tonight)

NRL

Round 4.

West Tigers @ Manly Sea Eagles
Sea Eagles -7.5 (-107, $1.93 Pinnacle) 1x

NRL YTD 0-1-1

*Actually had my best w/e in over 12 months last week, finishing up 17x for the w/e, going 2-0 on the AFL (both dogs at the m/l - got Freo early whilst they were still outsiders) and was 3-0 in the NRL until I posted my 2 Cowboys plays for a loss and a push, so obviously only going to count my bets that have been posted on SBR, making this my first AFL bet of the season. AFL is my most profitable sport and have also had 2 winning years in a row on NRL, so here's to hopefully a big season in both...

[sando]

It's a bit late but also playing

Tigers 1st Q -0.5 (-110, $1.90 IAS Bet) 1x

*Win or lose the game, expecting a fast start from the Tigers either way. They know they'll have to hit the ground running and build some confidence quickly to break their Carlton "hoodoo". To be in front by a goal or more will do wonders for the Tigers heading into the Q time break and Hard's will probably be frothing at the mouth revving up the lads before they head out...

[davopnz]

Good to see ya back

[sando]

Definition of a bad beat?

Had Tigers -0.5 1st Q and the Tigers kicked 2.9 for the quarter missing a bunch of kickable goals and to top it off Riewoldt kicks a goal at the Q time siren (scores tied at 21) only to have it disallowed.

Arghhh...

Anyway a nice night hitting the main AFL play at +150 and also the NRL play with the Sea Eagles crushing the (Wests) Tigers 26-0!

AFL
YTD 1-1 +0.5 Units

NRL
YTD 1-1-1 -0.07 Units

AFL Round 1.
*Play of the week*
Brisbane Lions @ Western Bulldogs
Lions -19.5 (-108, $1.92 Luxbet) 3x

[sando]

NBA

Sacramento @ Phoenix
Kings -3.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1.5x

*Kings playing great against their division teams lately with big wins over the Clippers and Warriors. The three star guards Thomas, Evans and Thornton all playing at a high level and putting up great numbers lately. More importantly Phoenix is seriously lacking in perimeter defenders (other than Johnson) and can see the Kings trio pretty much getting what they want in terms of penetration and open looks. Johnson will primarily guard Evans and may indeed do a great job, but he is too big for Thomas and Dragic who can be a pesky defender is still a step too slow for Thomas who really is quick off the dribble. It takes a Lawson/Conley type to stop Thomas.

After a good run the always dangerous Beasley is back out of favor, getting hardly any minutes and minimal production. Dudley also been very poor and producing nothing last 4 games. Shannon Brown doesn't ghet any playing time. Basically no matter what "Coach" Hunter does the Suns still suck, losing 4 in a row and 8 of their last 10.

The Suns best player is out in Gortat and Demarcus is due for a big game, having played two quiet games after three in a row massive games. O'Neal will have the job of stopping Cousins, who is bigger, stronger and faster.

Only concern for me is Kings coming off a big win on the road over their fierce rivals GS, so their may indeed be a small letdown in intensity, which is why i am only playing for 1.5x (and not 2-3x), however the Suns are still division rivals and there is plenty of history between these two teams. The B2B is irrelevant as both teams played yesterday and the Kings core is nice and young, so B2B's are not as much of an issue as they for Lakers, Mav's, Knicks, etc...

[stiles97]

what do you think haas vs ferrer? i think haas has no chance....

[sando]

Simon has not played well in this tournament in the past despite being a Frenchy playing at home.

what do you think haas vs ferrer? i think haas has no chance....

I'm taking a break from tennis until the French Open, however this is what my tennis software calculates if it helps you?
Final Probability - Haas 24.96% Ferrer 75.04%

[Bbr]

Doc checking in!
Im pounding the lions sando. Good to see you back.

[steveq]

good luck nice to see you

[oldscho0led]

this thread has been a wreck since you left. good to see you back

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn sando it's been a minute, glad you're back.
That afl play is at 21.5, still playable?

[SlickRick1382]

Welcome Back Sando, glad to see you came back....

[sando]

Damn sando it's been a minute, glad you're back.
That afl play is at 21.5, still playable?

Yeah Vinnie the line is only going to keep moving against us as the money is all coming in for Brisbane. As long as you get less than 4 goals start (-23.5) then I would say it's still playable. Many people predicting a demolition job by the young Lions on the Bulldogs.

[sando]

NBA

Atlanta @ Boston
Under 193.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Brooklyn @ Denver
Over 201.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Houston @ Memphis
Grizzlies -4.5 (-107 Pinnacle) 2x

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Western bulldogs handing Brisbane their asses on a silver platter.

60 points down at 3/4 time.

Stay away from faves at the spread for the first few rounds.

[casola]

Western bulldogs handing Brisbane their asses on a silver platter.

60 points down at 3/4 time.

Stay away from faves at the spread for the first few rounds.

Nice of you to jump in and tell everyone what a shit play it was 3 qtrs in........

[sando]

Well a disastrous start to the AFL season with my first big wager being crushed. Hoping to bounce back later tonight...

AFL

Round 1.
St Kilda Saints @ Gold Coast Suns
Suns +20.5 (-108, $1.92 Luxbet) 1.5x

[the tross]

I've been following your nba picks from the beginning and Im glad you're back big fella. Bol .

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Nice of you to jump in and tell everyone what a shit play it was 3 qtrs in........

You're welcome

[sando]

BIG NBA card today. Just working on it now...

[sando]

NBA

Brooklyn @ Utah
Jazz -4.5 (-106 Pinnacle) 2x

LA Clippers @ Houston
Clippers m/l (+105 Sportingbet) 1.5x
Under 206 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x

Indiana @ Phoenix
Pacers -10 (-116 Pinnacle) 1.5x

OKC @ Milwaukee
Bucks +6 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x

LA Lakers @ Sacramento
Kings +3 (-111 Pinnacle) 1x
Kings m/l (+125 Pinnacle) 0.5x

Portland @ GS
Warriors -9.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x



NCAAB

*I know very little about NCAAB, all I do know is that I have been riding Wichita State with great success and I don't plan on stopping now...

Wichita State @ Ohio State
Shockers +4.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x

[TC Woods]

Welcome back, let's get this!

cheers.gif

[sando]

Welcome back, let's get this!

cheers.gif

Thanks mate. Also great to see Doc, Aussie H, Vinnie, OldSchool, Slick Rick, Steve, Brumbies, Nocode, Pipita, the Tross, Lakey, Mr. XYZ, Matt, Crowing Capers and of course TRD & TGM! and Davopnz (I saw what you did in that other thread, thanks heaps mate for getting my back, I owe you).

I look forward to reading your various NBA, NRL and AFL threads and hope we all have big seasons and stick it to the books...

ps - King Danillo, best of luck to you in the Tennis. Hopefully we can put our petty differences aside and concentrate on making some money.

[grim259]

Great to see you back Sando! Had to resort to Horse betting while you were gone.

[sando]

Great to see you back Sando! Had to resort to Horse betting while you were gone.

Mate i got a sure thing for you. 1K on Black Caviar every race for the easiest $20-$30 you will ever make haha...

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Get on the Penny Panthers today mate!

[sando]

NBA Update!

James Harden possibly out and definitely not starting tonight v LA. The Clippers m/l is being absolutely pounded as I write from +105 into -140 and probably lower...?

[sando]

Get on the Penny Panthers today mate!

Seriously considering it mate, have watched two of their games this year and very impressed with big Tim Grant and little James Segeyaro and the Panthers in general. Lachlan Coote is a massive out however, I don't like that one bit on a team so thin on talent.

[grim259]

Mate i got a sure thing for you. 1K on Black Caviar every race for the easiest $20-$30 you will ever make haha...

Idk how sure of a thing that is lol. Seems like too good to be true.

[pipita17]

dont know why but i think wolves will win, taking +4.5 on them. bol

[sando]

nrl-v-afl.jpg

NRL

YTD 1-1-1 -0.07 Units

Round 4.

Canberra v Newcastle (today)
Over 41.5 (-110, $1.90 Pinnacle) 2x
*Both these teams have plenty of points in them with game breakers and X-factors galore (Uate, Boyd, Smith, Ferguson, Robinson, Papalii) and the Raiders defence once cracked can tend to open the flood gates, despite having the biggest pack in the comp. This coupled with the Knights averaging 36 points in their first two home games (against arguably better defences than Canberra's) and the fact that the Raiders also have plenty of points in them points to the over being the play. As with their defence, once the Raiders start rolling in attack, they can do a lot of damage very quickly. No team in the comp (other than maybe Souths) can rack up the points as quick as the Raiders can. The over is the play.

NQ Cowboys @ NZ Warriors (tomorrow)
Cowboys -7 (+108, $2.08 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Cowboys (to win by) 13+ (+162, $2.62 Bet 365) 0.5x
*Will do a write-up tomorrow...


AFL

YTD 2-2 -1.12 Units

Round 1.

Collingwood @ North Melbourne (today)
Magpies -10 (-110, $1.90 Luxbet) 2x
*All this talk of the Hawks, Swans and Eagles and everyone seems to have forgotten about the 'pies.
Key Factor - The addition of Q-Lynch, taking pressure of Cloke and adding to a potent forward line that could provide a potential nightmare for NM defenders, with key defender McMahon out suspended.

Geelong @ Hawthorn (tomorrow)
Hawks -7.5 (-105, $1.95 Pinnacle) 1x
*Many "experts" will tell you that the smart money is on Geelong, due to the "Kennett curse" b/s of Geelong not having lost to the Hawks since the infamous '08 grand final. Well the Cats were in great pre-season form, but seriously look at how the Lion's great NAB cup form transferred into round 1 against the 'doggies. At the end of the day the Hawks are simply the better team. Geelong while still formidable opposition (especially at Skilled) are clearly past their peak, and the Hawks whilst they perhaps may start the match a bit rusty have the best list in all of football (this coming from a Swan's fan) and providing they are there or there-abouts by h/t, all this "Kennett curse" nonsense will be out the window and I like the Hawks to pull away to the tune of 3-5 goals after h/t.

[sando]

NBA

2nd Half Play

Orlando @ Atlanta
Under 100.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x

[Crowing Capers]

38 point 3rd qtr