1. 06-05-12 04:36 PM #36
    Dmoneytx
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    BlackHaze, thanks for the write ups & the plays brotha!!! Your pick on OKC last night was solid! Made a good good day for me! Thank you again & keep up the good work
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  2. 06-05-12 10:48 PM #37
    Winning oasis
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    Rot #Projected Score
    719 Boston 84.3
    720 Miami 92.0
    Miami -7.5
    Low Confidence
    Under 179.5
    Probability is swinging back to 50/50.
    Last edited by sbr.rodrigo; 02-11-15 at 05:28 PM.
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  3. 06-06-12 12:26 AM #38
    BlacK_HazE
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    Not going to lie, lost a lot of $ on Miami tonight.. Sorry to anyone who tailed the system today. Hopefully will be back with a winner tomorrow. Thoughts on tonights game: Fire Erik Spoelestra, the dude is a f****** joke as a head coach. I wonder how much better we would be with someone like Phil or Popovich as our head coach.. Going to need a miracle to come back, and to be honest I don't see Boston's big 3 losing what could be there last game together in Boston.
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  4. 06-06-12 05:52 AM #39
    k4cowboys4k
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    Yah I lost a good chunk on the heat as well, the end of the third quarter killed em
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  5. 06-06-12 01:44 PM #40
    BlacK_HazE
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    Updated Record: 5-3

    Only one play tonight, sorry don't have time to post stats, busy with starting classes this summer and working. System projects OKC to win by 4, so I will roll with the most confident play..

    Play: OKC ML
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  6. 06-07-12 01:32 PM #41
    BlacK_HazE
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    Updated Record: 6-3

    Previewing Tonight's Game:



    Win/Odds predictions
    -Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7 years.
    (Miami 65%, Boston 35%)
    -Team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule strength.
    (Miami 49%, Boston 51%)
    -Mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and losses.
    (Miami 53%, Boston 47%)

    (Please Note)
    *Accuscore projects a Boston Win/Cover.. I am going to go with the majority rules again here since 2/3 project a Miami cover..

    Play: Miami ML *
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: J.M. Disciple
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  7. 06-07-12 04:11 PM #42
    J.M. Disciple
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    Great breakdown! Love the stats.
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  8. 06-07-12 11:05 PM #43
    BlacK_HazE
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    Updated Record: 7-3

    LETS GO HEAT NATION!!!
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  9. 06-07-12 11:13 PM #44
    figue
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlacK_HazE View Post
    Updated Record: 7-3

    LETS GO HEAT NATION!!!
    Points Awarded:

    BlacK_HazE gave figue 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  10. 06-08-12 09:18 PM #45
    J.M. Disciple
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    Whats tomorrow look like?
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  11. 06-09-12 09:54 AM #46
    BlacK_HazE
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    *Note Accuscore projects boston as the play tonight. I am basing the play off the past historical games, as well as my initial thought. Too much of the public on boston +8, hopefully vegas doesn't get this line wrong again..

    Play: Miami -7 * (bought 1 point)
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  12. 06-09-12 11:06 AM #47
    franka33
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    what do you think about the over under on the game
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  13. 06-09-12 12:47 PM #48
    BlacK_HazE
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    Quote Originally Posted by franka33 View Post
    what do you think about the over under on the game
    System projects the game to go under, however it is a low confidence play. Past historical games also give the advantage to the under.. Decided to make the under a play as well tonight

    Hope the info helped

    Adding: U178 *
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  14. 06-09-12 01:05 PM #49
    Cobra07751
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    Teamrankings (Horrible) picks Celtics tonight. I have followed Accuscore/Team Rankings for 4 years.
    Projected Score
    727
    Boston    		 84.1
    728
    Miami    		 92.2

    Boston +8.0
    Low Confidence

    Under 178
    Low
    Confidence

    Note: Our ATS and Over/Under Picks incorporate more
    information than just the Projected Score. See sidebar notes for
    explanation.

    ATS Performance in Similar Historical Games
    Game Type Better vs ATS* Record
    25 Most Similar Historical Games Miami 17-7-1 (70.8%)
    All 75 Similar Historical Games Miami 43-30-2 (58.9%)
    Similar Games (Spread = 8) Boston 2-1-0 (66.7%)
    Similar Games (Spread 7 to 9) Miami 11-9-1 (55.0%)

    * For example, in the 25 most similar historical games, the
    teams like Miami had a better ATS record than the teams like Boston.

    Margin of Victory/Defeat For Teams Like Miami in Similar Historical
    Games


    21+ 16-20 11-15 6-10 1-5 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21+
    Miami Loss By
    The team
    like Miami lost
    24 of 75 similar historical games.    		 Miami Win By
    The team like Miami
    won
    51 of 75 similar historical games.

    Over-Under Performance in Similar Historical
    Games
    Game Type Better O/U Record
    25 Most Similar Historical Games Under 16-9-0 (64.0%)
    All 75 Similar Historical Games Under 46-29-0 (61.3%)
    Similar Games (Total = 178) Under 3-0-0 (100.0%)
    Similar Games (Total 176 to 180) Under 19-14-0 (57.6%)

    Total Points in Similar Historical Games


    0-160 161-70 171-80 181-90 191-00 201-10 211-20 221-30 231-40 241+
    Total points scored went under 178
    points in 46 of 75 (61.3%) of similar historical games.



    About the Projected Score and Picks

    We use a variety of mathematical
    methods to project games. The projected score listed on the left is an output of
    our Similar Games model, which is described below.

    In making our ATS and
    Over/Under picks, we consider this projected score plus a variety of other
    models, stats, and analysis. As a result, our ATS and Over/Under picks may not
    always "agree" with what the projected score implies.


    About Our Similar Games Model

    Our Similar Games model analyzes 11,535
    matchups since 2003 and identifies the 75 historical games most similar to this
    one. These similar historical games feature:

    • Home teams with stats similar to Miami
    • Away teams with stats similar to Boston
    • Similar betting lines and other game details

    The model uses the
    results of these historical games to make objective predictions for this
    matchup.


    more
    Scenarios To Watch For

    Objective algorithmic models have many
    advantages, but there are some scenarios that are often difficult to model
    accurately. These include:

    • Very early season games
    • Recent injuries to key players
    • Highly uncommon betting lines
    • Motivational differences (e.g. "clinched" teams)

    If one or more of
    these situations applies to a game, you may improve the model's predictive
    success by making reasonable subjective adjustments. less


    Win Odds Predictions

    In addition to computing a projected final score, we
    use other mathematical methods to forecast each team's odds of winning the game.
    This table presents data-driven game win odds projections from these other
    approaches.
    Method BOS MIA
    SIMILAR GAMES MODEL
    Quantitative analysis of 75 similar historical matchups over the past 7
    years.    		 29% 71%
    PREDICTIVE POWER RATINGS
    Assesses a team's performance at outscoring opponents, adjusted for schedule
    strength.    		 35% 65%
    DECISION TREE
    Advanced mathematical model that identifies key factors that project wins and
    losses.    		 18% 82%


    Last edited by sbr.rodrigo; 02-11-15 at 05:30 PM.
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  15. 06-09-12 06:52 PM #50
    J.M. Disciple
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    Teaser o173 and mia -2.5 what do you think? My bet is already in, but lacking a little confidence in the O/u part. Should be pretty safe (-115 odds).
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  16. 06-09-12 10:36 PM #51
    J.M. Disciple
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    Nice Job with your "system." really on fire.
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  17. 06-09-12 10:44 PM #52
    BlacK_HazE
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    Quote Originally Posted by J.M. Disciple View Post
    Nice Job with your "system." really on fire.
    Probably shouldn't of touched the over.. Still up for the day though, went big on Miami
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  18. 06-09-12 10:45 PM #53
    BlacK_HazE
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    System updated record: 8-4

    Congratulations to the Miami Heat. 2x Eastern Conference Champs!!! Let's get it done this year!
    Points Awarded:

    Dmoneytx gave BlacK_HazE 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  19. 06-09-12 10:46 PM #54
    Dmoneytx
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    Keep up the GREAT work Haze!!! Demonta tipped me off to you awhile ago & you have made me some good money brotha
    I hope your run continues in the Finals. Just had to come in real quick & thank you for giving me the extra confidence to pull the trigger.
    Thanks again & BOL!!!
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  20. 06-10-12 12:47 PM #55
    J.M. Disciple
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    Heat will lose the championship I can almost guarantee that. Durant, westbrook and ibaka match up well. It wont be the big 3 that make the difference it will be guys like Harden on the thunder that beat Mia. There is no way Mia will get as many 3s vs the thunder as they did in game 7 vs Boston.

    Also I want to fade lebron on his 31pts prop because Durant's Defense is better then most other people he has faced so far.
    Last edited by J.M. Disciple; 06-10-12 at 04:36 PM.
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  21. 06-10-12 01:42 PM #56
    k4cowboys4k
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    It's Durant.
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  22. 06-12-12 10:09 AM #57
    BlacK_HazE
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    *According to sportsinsights, about 67% of the public is on Miami ML. With the system pretty much depicting a toss up on the spread, I will place a very small amount on the Thunder tonight, as I can't see them losing game 1 in a crazy OKC environment.

    Play: Thunder ML **
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  23. 06-12-12 10:53 AM #58
    Tarrum
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    67%?? Damn that's super high...Going with OKC as well.
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  24. 06-12-12 02:03 PM #59
    HotHand
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    Its always hard for me to play against the heats.
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  25. 06-12-12 03:58 PM #60
    BlacK_HazE
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    Yeah I know what you mean.. surprisingly though I haven't lost yet this post season when fading the heat. Hope I'm wrong tonight though, as I would much rather see the heat win
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  26. 06-12-12 11:38 PM #61
    BlacK_HazE
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    Update Record: 9-4

    Be back with Thursday's play early tomorrow. Hope everyone had a good night and made sum $
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  27. 06-13-12 12:31 AM #62
    Tarrum
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    I won 6/6 bets today on OKC MIA. The harder it gets, the more I win, I don't understand. Thanks to guys like you on this forum!!
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  28. 06-13-12 01:33 AM #63
    Dollaz
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlacK_HazE View Post
    Update Record: 9-4

    Be back with Thursday's play early tomorrow. Hope everyone had a good night and made sum $
    Great lookin' system, i jumped on the thunder ML (live in-game) for +108 when they were down by 9. I figured i could get better value if i waited a lil.

    Anyway thanks for the plays ill be following the system for this series
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  29. 06-14-12 03:16 PM #64
    J.M. Disciple
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    Whats the play today?

    I got a teaser with Mia +10.5 / Under 201.
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  30. 06-14-12 05:03 PM #65
    BlacK_HazE
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    Pretty much another toss up game on the spread. System projects Oklahoma City -5.5 as a low confidence play, and the past historical match-ups actually favor the team like Miami.. So I will be placing another small play on Thunder ML as this is the most confident play according to the system..

    Play: Thunder * ML
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  31. 06-14-12 05:05 PM #66
    j37hr0
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    No play on the total?
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  32. 06-14-12 05:07 PM #67
    BlacK_HazE
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    Low confidence on over 196, not enough for me to like it as a play though.
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  33. 06-14-12 06:36 PM #68
    HotHand
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    I like the system input but I really think heats will cover today & possibility win as well. I just can't bet against Miami twice. I'll wait till last minute to see if the lines will move towards the heat them put a small play on them. Bol.
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  34. 06-17-12 09:01 AM #69
    BlacK_HazE
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    Updated Record: 9-5





    Play: Miami Heat * -4 (Might be a big play for me tonight)
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  35. 06-18-12 10:05 AM #70
    BlacK_HazE
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    System Updated Record: 10-5

    Cashed in big on the Heat last night boys! Early lean for Tuesday as of right is the Thunder, will post play when info become available.
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